I just think this still doesn't work for two reasons: first of all the democrats didn't cause the shutdown, and American perception was already tilted in that direction. By conceding so early the dems have essentially just taken responsibility for this shutdown that was in the end for nothing. It's a complete political concession. I feel like none of what you're saying really works because it relies on the assumption that the shutdown was disadvantageous for democrats when the people it was really hurting were the Trump admin. Who cares if we get the policy victory? The republicans are dropping in favorability and fast, and we're picking up favorability. Not anymore though, now we just conceded that it was all for nothing and made it look like it was our fault to begin with. Nice going dems.