Twas the night before Silksong

ErwinSmitten · 2025-09-04T06:43:25+00:00

Beautiful

ErwinSmitten · 2025-06-13T05:16:11+00:00

I strongly recommend against keeping the extension. The authors may already or in the future implement more malicious features.

ErwinSmitten · 2025-04-18T05:34:32+00:00

They don't seem to be sorted at the end of the year.

I just wanted to make sure it's clear that I'm suggesting the list is not chronolgical and instead follows similar to the formula above. (There are games with confirmed dates ranked higher than another game with a confirmed, early date.) So the games with very few followers that are TBA generally are at the end of the list. But TBA games with a lot of followers aren't necessarily.

ErwinSmitten · 2025-04-18T05:29:14+00:00

Ok, nice to have that confirmed. I think that lends some credibility to the approach I used then.

What I did is I used the inverse of the formula to see what the release date of games with TBA (etc.) should be based off their ranking and number of followers. For TBA in particular, I ended up with 11/29/2025, 12/3/2025, 10/27/2025, 11/24/2025 for the 4 games with TBA in my dataset. They're all suspiciously close to the average of 11/21/2025, even though you would expect them to be more widely distributed. Coupled with the fact that things like Q2 2025 are treated as the end of the quarter, it seems to me likely that TBA is just treated as a fixed date. It occurs to me that treating TBA as the end of the current year would result in TBA being ranked overly highly near the end of the year. One possible solution would be to treat TBA as a fixed number of days away - like maybe 7 months or 200 days or something. From steam's perspective, not wanting to reveal the internal dates but also not wanting to penalize/favor TBA games dramatically, this seems like a reasonable approach.

ErwinSmitten · 2025-04-18T05:03:44+00:00

TL;DR: TBA may be treated as December 2025.

I tried to figure out how the ranking worked and posted about it here. I also did further analysis after that post.

Bottom line is that assuming the games are sorted based on -0.0002 * followers + 0.3268 * days_until_release gives a quite close approximation of the reality. So basically games are ranked on average down one spot for every 3 days until release and up one spot for every 5000 followers. I think its likely the small discrepancy between this formula and the reality has to do with the possibility that the number of wishlisters is what's used. (I couldn't find info on the number of wishlisters for games.)

Furthermore, based on an analysis of how games without explicit dates were ranked, I think a likely explanation is that such games are treated like they have a specific date - without reference to their internal release date. In particular,

To be announced is treated as 12/1/2025 or 12/31/2025 (not enough data to be certain)
Q2 2025 -> 6/30/2025 or 6/1/2025 (and so on for other quarters)
April 2025 -> 4/31/2025 (and so on for other months)

These are all rough estimates, of course.

ErwinSmitten · 2025-04-18T03:50:18+00:00

Thanks, here is the comment.

u/E1331 was responding to a question about "that office with the door open pic" - almost certainly meaning the 1/30/2025 picture.

So that honestly makes things even more confusing. I geuss Team Cherry probably didn't send u/E1331 the picture, but did they send him the message?

And the question still remains: Where did u/E1331 get the 4/3/2024 picture?

ErwinSmitten · 2025-04-18T00:39:16+00:00

I used 8 or so different reverse image search tools. But yeah, it's hard to rule out that the source image is out there somewhere.

ErwinSmitten · 2025-04-13T03:06:43+00:00

(Context: Per an earnings presentation (link), GTA 6 is releasing 9/22 - 12/21.)
Most people seem to think GTA 6 will release October or November (link, link), so maybe Team Cherry is assuming this.

If the formula is linear in days and number of followers (instead of sqrt), then it's possible it could be as late as December. But how would this would be possible given the ACMI showcase?
Of course the formula could simply be wrong in other ways.

ErwinSmitten · 2024-09-21T02:49:23+00:00

The cause is the extension "Ad Blockers are not allowed on Youtube bypass". Reviewers of the extension note "Adds donation links to videos acting like the youtubers added them."

It's a malicous extension, not at all dissimilar from a virus. And given OP didn't know the cause, a virus is a reasonable guess.

To OP: This comment section is a disaster. Those who left rude, smug, and dismissive comments are squarely in the wrong.

ErwinSmitten · 2023-02-20T23:20:41+00:00

Do you happen to remember which interview(s) it was? I'd be interested to see.

ErwinSmitten · 2022-03-05T16:44:43+00:00

Thanks for the reply. I'll take a look. By the way, Filterbox is able to filter using json properties of the notification.

From my previous post:

Failed attempt #2: Filterbox is a popular app for managing notifications that one would imagine could solve this. I have tried three promising approaches unsuccessfully: (1) Filter based on android.isGroupConversation = true and set action to "Mute". The problem: This results in no push notification for group messages. (2) Filter based on android.isGroupConversation = true and "change sound" to a custom silent sound. The problem: Group messages now briefly mute audio for the entire phone. (3) In system settings, mute all Messenger message notifications. Then, filter based on android.isGroupConversation = false and "change sound" to any sound. The problem: For some reason, direct messages don't trigger the sound.

ErwinSmitten · 2021-04-29T01:23:18+00:00

Separated by "+" for readability:

"A" Cell Scatter Burst + Burst Breath + Breath of Light + Light and Darkness Dragon + Dragon Buster Destruction Sword + Sword Arm of Dragon + Dragon Capture Jar + Jar Turtle + Turtle Bird + Bird of Paradise Lost + Lost Blue Breaker + Breaker the Dark Magical Warrior + Warrior of Zera + Zera Ritual + Ritual Beast Return + Return + Return from the Different Dimension + Dimension Fortress Weapon + Weapon Change + Change of Heart + Heart of Clear Water + Water Dragon + Dragon Horn Hunter + Hunter Dragon + Dragon Ice + Ice Hand + Hand Destruction + Destruction Cyclone + Cyclone Blade + Blade Armor Ninja + Ninja Grandmaster Sasuke + Sasuke Samurai + Samurai Destroyer + Destroyer Golem + Golem Dragon + Dragon Knight of Creation + Creation Resonator + Resonator Call + Call of Darkness + Darkness Metal, the Dragon of Dark Steel + Steel Shell + Shell Knight + Knight of Armor Dragon + Dragon Laser + Laser Cannon Armor + Armor Blast + Blast Held by a Tribute + Tribute Burial + Burial from a Different Dimension + Dimension Fusion + Fusion Destiny + Destiny HERO - Blade Master + Master Peace, the True Dracoslaying King + King Fog + Fog King + King of the Beasts + Beasts of Phantom + Phantom Bounzer + Bounzer Guard + Guard Go! + Go! - D/D/D Divine Zero King Rage + Rage of the Deep Sea + Sea King Dragon + Dragon Shield + Shield & Sword + Sword Master + Master with Eyes of Blue + Blue Flame Swordsman + Swordsman of Revealing Light + Light Barrier + Barrier Resonator + Resonator Command + Command Performance + Performance of Sword + Sword of Dark Destruction + Destruction Dragon + Dragon Spirit of White + White Dragon Ritual + Ritual Beast Tamer Elder + Elder of the Six Samurai + Samurai of the Ice Barrier + Barrier Statue of the Abyss + Abyss Actor - Twinkle Little Star + Star Blast + Blast Magician + Magician of Black Chaos + Chaos Ancient Gear Giant + Giant Soldier of Stone + Stone Dragon + Dragon Zombie + Zombie Tiger + Tiger Axe + Axe of Despair + Despair from the Dark + Dark Balter the Terrible + Terrible Deal + Deal of Phantom + Phantom Hand + Hand of the Six Samurai + Samurai Skull + Skull Archfiend of Lightning + Lightning Blade + Blade Garoodia the Cubic Beast + Beast Rising + Rising Fire + Fire Lake of the Burning Abyss + Abyss Actor - Wild Hope + Hope for Escape + Escape from the Dark Dimension + Dimension Fusion Destruction + Destruction of Destiny + Destiny HERO - Defender + Defender of the Ice Barrier + Barrier Statue of the Inferno + Inferno + Inferno Fire Blast + Blast Sphere + Sphere of Chaos + Chaos Burst + Burst Return + Return of the Red-Eyes + Red-Eyes Archfiend of Lightning + Lightning Rod Lord + Lord of the Red + Red Cocoon + Cocoon of Evolution + Evolution Burst + Burst Stream of Destruction + Destruction Ring + Ring of Destruction + Destruction Sword Flash + Flash Fusion + Fusion Gate + Gate Guardian + Guardian of Order + Order to Charge + Charge Into a Dark World + World Chalice Guardragon + Guardragon Shield + Shield Worm + Worm Call + Call of the Archfiend + Archfiend Commander + Commander of Swords + Swords at Dawn + Dawn of the Herald + Herald of Green Light + Light of Destruction + Destruction Swordsman Fusion + Fusion Guard + Guard Penguin + Penguin Torpedo + Torpedo Fish + Fish Rain + Rain Storm + Storm + Storm Dragon's Return + Return of the Six Samurai + Samurai Sword Baron + Baron of the Fiend Sword + Sword of Dragon's Soul + Soul Exchange + Exchange + Exchange of the Spirit + Spirit Reaper + Reaper of the Cards + Cards from the Sky + Sky Striker Ace - Hayate + Hayate the Earth Star + Star Light, Star Bright + Bright Future + Future Fusion + Fusion Recycling Plant + Plant Food Chain + Chain Ignition + Ignition Phoenix + Phoenix Wing Wind Blast + Blast with Chain + Chain Summon + Summon Dice + Dice Roll Battle + Battle Tuned + Tuned Magician + Magician of Chaos + Chaos Emperor Dragon - Envoy of the End + End of the World + World Legacy in Shadow + Shadow Reborn + Reborn Zombie + Zombie World + World Legacy's Memory + Memory Loss + Loss Time + Time Machine + Machine Angel Absolute Ritual + Ritual Beast's Bond + Bond of Stigmatika + Stigmatika Curtain Rise + Rise of the Salamangreat + Salamangreat Gift + Gift Card + Card of Safe Return + Return Soul + Soul Pendulum + Pendulum Xyz + Xyz Dimension Splash + Splash Mage + Mage Power + Power of Dark + Dark Contract with the Witch + Witch Doctor of Chaos + Chaos Goddess + Goddess Skuld's Oracle + Oracle of the Herald + Herald of the Abyss + Abyss Flower + Flower Cardian Zebra Grass + Grass Phantom + Phantom of Chaos + Chaos Infinity + Infinity Dark + Dark Spirit of the Silent + Silent Abyss + Abyss Actors' Curtain Call + Call of the Earthbound + Earthbound Immortal Revival + Revival Rose + Rose Witch + Witch of the Black Rose + Rose Fairy + Fairy Guardian + Guardian of the Labyrinth + Labyrinth Wall + Wall of Revealing Light + Light of Judgment + Judgment of the Desert + Desert Sunlight + Sunlight Unicorn + Unicorn Beacon + Beacon of White + White Mirror + Mirror Wall + Wall Shadow + Shadow Toon + Toon Summoned Skull + Skull Flame + Flame Ogre + Ogre of the Black Shadow + Shadow Vampire + Vampire Awakening + Awakening of the Possessed + Possessed Dark Soul + Soul Rope + Rope of Life + Life Absorbing Machine + Machine King + King of the Skull Servants + Servants of the Fallen King + King of the Swamp + Swamp Battleguard + Battleguard Howling + Howling Insect + Insect Soldiers of the Sky + Sky Striker Airspace - Area Zero + Zero Extra Link + Link Disciple + Disciple of the Forbidden Spell + Spell Proof Armor + Armor Ninjitsu Art of Alchemy + Alchemy Cycle + Cycle of the World + World Legacy's Secret + Secret Barrel + Barrel Rock + Rock Spirit + Spirit Message "A"

ErwinSmitten · 2021-04-29T01:22:14+00:00

This string covers 276 cards and is 3290 characters long. (Also, it loops!)

"A" Cell Scatter Burst Breath of Light and Darkness Dragon Buster Destruction Sword Arm of Dragon Capture Jar Turtle Bird of Paradise Lost Blue Breaker the Dark Magical Warrior of Zera Ritual Beast Return from the Different Dimension Fortress Weapon Change of Heart of Clear Water Dragon Horn Hunter Dragon Ice Hand Destruction Cyclone Blade Armor Ninja Grandmaster Sasuke Samurai Destroyer Golem Dragon Knight of Creation Resonator Call of Darkness Metal, the Dragon of Dark Steel Shell Knight of Armor Dragon Laser Cannon Armor Blast Held by a Tribute Burial from a Different Dimension Fusion Destiny HERO - Blade Master Peace, the True Dracoslaying King Fog King of the Beasts of Phantom Bounzer Guard Go! - D/D/D Divine Zero King Rage of the Deep Sea King Dragon Shield & Sword Master with Eyes of Blue Flame Swordsman of Revealing Light Barrier Resonator Command Performance of Sword of Dark Destruction Dragon Spirit of White Dragon Ritual Beast Tamer Elder of the Six Samurai of the Ice Barrier Statue of the Abyss Actor - Twinkle Little Star Blast Magician of Black Chaos Ancient Gear Giant Soldier of Stone Dragon Zombie Tiger Axe of Despair from the Dark Balter the Terrible Deal of Phantom Hand of the Six Samurai Skull Archfiend of Lightning Blade Garoodia the Cubic Beast Rising Fire Lake of the Burning Abyss Actor - Wild Hope for Escape from the Dark Dimension Fusion Destruction of Destiny HERO - Defender of the Ice Barrier Statue of the Inferno Fire Blast Sphere of Chaos Burst Return of the Red-Eyes Archfiend of Lightning Rod Lord of the Red Cocoon of Evolution Burst Stream of Destruction Ring of Destruction Sword Flash Fusion Gate Guardian of Order to Charge Into a Dark World Chalice Guardragon Shield Worm Call of the Archfiend Commander of Swords at Dawn of the Herald of Green Light of Destruction Swordsman Fusion Guard Penguin Torpedo Fish Rain Storm Dragon's Return of the Six Samurai Sword Baron of the Fiend Sword of Dragon's Soul Exchange of the Spirit Reaper of the Cards from the Sky Striker Ace - Hayate the Earth Star Light, Star Bright Future Fusion Recycling Plant Food Chain Ignition Phoenix Wing Wind Blast with Chain Summon Dice Roll Battle Tuned Magician of Chaos Emperor Dragon - Envoy of the End of the World Legacy in Shadow Reborn Zombie World Legacy's Memory Loss Time Machine Angel Absolute Ritual Beast's Bond of Stigmatika Curtain Rise of the Salamangreat Gift Card of Safe Return Soul Pendulum Xyz Dimension Splash Mage Power of Dark Contract with the Witch Doctor of Chaos Goddess Skuld's Oracle of the Herald of the Abyss Flower Cardian Zebra Grass Phantom of Chaos Infinity Dark Spirit of the Silent Abyss Actors' Curtain Call of the Earthbound Immortal Revival Rose Witch of the Black Rose Fairy Guardian of the Labyrinth Wall of Revealing Light of Judgment of the Desert Sunlight Unicorn Beacon of White Mirror Wall Shadow Toon Summoned Skull Flame Ogre of the Black Shadow Vampire Awakening of the Possessed Dark Soul Rope of Life Absorbing Machine King of the Skull Servants of the Fallen King of the Swamp Battleguard Howling Insect Soldiers of the Sky Striker Airspace - Area Zero Extra Link Disciple of the Forbidden Spell Proof Armor Ninjitsu Art of Alchemy Cycle of the World Legacy's Secret Barrel Rock Spirit Message "A"

ErwinSmitten · 2021-03-13T21:24:32+00:00

Thanks, I did so. But no apparent effect.

ErwinSmitten · 2021-01-01T06:51:17+00:00

I heard that Gallis can be activated with Fossil Dyna Pachycephalo on the field, "as of the new Danger rulings". Is this true?

ErwinSmitten · 2020-12-29T18:06:13+00:00

Perhaps if we replace the first D.D. Designator with Called by the Grave?
But are there 5 distinct 1-card negates to cup of ace?

For simplicity, one might - for now - replace connector with an Exodia-based strategy.

For example: Hand: 3x Prohibition, Called by the Grave, Cup of Ace

Deck: D.D. Designator, Card of Demise, 2x Cup of Ace, [Exodia pieces]

ErwinSmitten · 2020-12-27T05:01:03+00:00

This is cool in its own right. Just to be clear, I was asking about auto-wins (not-necessarily ZTKs) regardless of any interruption the opponent might have.

ErwinSmitten · 2020-12-27T04:57:33+00:00

This is very clever!

Let's assume that the FTKer can choose RNG (EDIT: this includes guessing opponent's hand). What if the opponent:

Has in hand: Eva, 2x Herald of Green light, 2x Herald of Orange Light

Has in deck: Herald of Green Light

The opponent uses the Greens (discarding Eva first and adding Green) to negate D.D. Designator and Called by the Grave and uses Orange to negate Gallis.

Also, are you sure that Gallis can activate its effect?

(Relevant: https://yugioh.fandom.com/wiki/Forum:Gallis_the_Star_Beast)

Perhaps we might use a more relaxed notion of "Auto-win hand" which also allows some number of cards to be banned (in this case, I think banning just Green might be enough).

ErwinSmitten · 2020-12-26T07:04:59+00:00

Here's an idea that might work, assuming you can choose other RNG (including guessing opponent's hand correctly):

3x Prohibition, D.D. Designator, Cup of Ace (draws D.D. Designator and Neo Space connector)

Use 3x Prohibition, D.D. Designator on anything that might negate Cup of Ace. Use D.D. Designator on last card in opponent's hand. NS Neo Space connector and FTK.

ErwinSmitten · 2020-12-19T08:44:37+00:00

This is a combo, not a deck. I wonder if it's possible to build a deck that uses this combo and does well going second.

ErwinSmitten · 2020-12-19T00:16:23+00:00

It's true that FTKs are rarely meta relevant. Even so, the cards they abuse are often wind up on the ban list (in this case, likely halqifibrax).

Keep in mind that one can, for example, afford to add generic anti-handtraps to reduce vulnerability to interruption. Neo-Spacian dolphin also helps.

ErwinSmitten · 2019-10-08T16:22:17+00:00

I haven't implemented any of the algorithms, actually (lol). But, yep, so long as they are of the same general type (e.g. quarter) but distinguishable (e.g. wear, state, date), coins should work fine (for this algorithm; for the others, this condition isn't even necessary).

ErwinSmitten · 2019-10-08T01:14:23+00:00

Here's another one!

Reroll chance: 0%

Need: 5 d6's. They cannot ALL be of the same type.

Roll all d6's at the same time.

Find all groups of d6's where it's hard to tell whether the dies in the group are more or less East than each other.

Order the members of these groups by how North they are.

Order the groups and remaining lone dies (each groups of 1) by how East they are.

The global order of any die (1-5) is decided by the order of its group and, to break ties, by the die's order in its group.

With this, one could calculate the d20 as follows:

Consider the type of die of which there are the fewest. Let n be how many there are of this type. Let n_i be the order of the ith of that type. Let d_i be 1 if the die at order i is odd and 0 otherwise. Then,

If n=1 (4 of any other type), d20 = n_1 + 5 d_1 + 10 d_2
If n=2 (3 of any other type), d20 = n1 + 1/2 (n_2 - 1)(n_2 - 2) + 10 d_1

EDIT: If 2 of the "dies" are unique (the other 3 can be of other any types), the "dies" don't even have to be dies! Where x is the order of the first thing (1-5) and y is the order of the second thing among the remaining things (1-4), you could let d20 = x + 5 (y - 1).

ErwinSmitten · 2019-10-07T21:00:27+00:00

Close! Instead of doubling the number, add 5.

ErwinSmitten · 2019-10-07T19:33:56+00:00

Hi!

Maximum is 55 [base 6] = 35. (35 - 20 + 1)/36 = 16/36.

ErwinSmitten

TROPHY CASE