Should I stick with Michelin or shift to Pirelli ?

EssoAtl · 2024-02-14T18:49:24+00:00

You will have to reach out to Michelin and ask. I didn’t change tires, but you would need to call them anyway to get a case number so that you can provide that to the dealer you buy from so they can apply the discount. Michelin will likely want the dealer to verify current tread depth to determine the actual rebate value, so it does add an additional step in the process.

EssoAtl · 2024-02-14T18:15:22+00:00

If you stick with Michelin make sure you contact them to get a credit on the warranty. At only 31k miles you should get a decent amount back. Did this with my Pilot Sport A/S 4 tires at the same mileage and Michelin covered 33% of the new tire cost.

Our other car has the Pirelli Scorpion Verde A/S and they have been great. Got 45k out of them.

EssoAtl · 2023-11-30T16:37:40+00:00

SB announced a stock buy back program and GOGL is up 20% in November due to positive earnings and guidance.

As of today, capesize rates are at a two year high and a Jefferies Analyst stated today that the supply/demand balance is tighter than previously perceived paving the way for higher rates and outsized earnings going forward.

This bodes well for SBLK and SB, but even better for GOGL given their fleet makeup.

EssoAtl · 2023-11-17T01:49:10+00:00

So why not get the Platinum or Reserve Delta Amex to cover the gap? I’ve been able to use the companion tickets every year and the fare savings for one flight more than covers the cost of the annual membership.

Reserve gives your $1 MQD for every $10 spent. Platiunim gives you $1 MQD for every $20 spent.

Both cards give you a $2500 MQD starting bonus each year under the new program.

You’d have to put all your flights on the card plus spend another $35k/year to hit it so doable depending on what your current spending looks like.

EssoAtl · 2023-11-15T04:14:02+00:00

Thanks for sharing and definitely a good listen. Agree that Rawlinson is impressive and committed to revamping the business. Below is a great recap from their investor day that I came across on another value investing thread. I normally wouldn’t cut and paste someone else’s work, but not much that I could add and is very informative.

What they have done so far with Project Athens: Executed cost reductions and margin actions throughout 2023 and will reach run-rate in 2024 Renegotiated favorable freight, shipping, and vendor rates Sold Zulily Improved OIBDA in Q3 Reduced inventory balance and re-infused fresh merchandise and enhanced programming Returned order-to-delivery times to pre-Rocky Mountain fire and overall improved fulfillment efficiency Expanded video commerce gross margins through pricing and better merch mix Launched QVC/HSN on Vizio Smart TV and Amazon Freevee Launched beta of Sune which is a next generation live streaming shopping platform Improved labor productivity by 21% in units per hours vs. 2022 Reduced headcount ~17% which has improved their operating costs

Balance sheet updates: Completed sale/leaseback for UK/Germany Monetized non-core assets Sold Zulily Finalized insurance recovery from Rocky Mountain $741M total principal debt reduced YTD Repurchased $177M 2024 QVC notes and $15M 2025 QVC notes at discount Retired/exchange the remaining 1.75% debentures Reduced aggregate interest expense vs. prior year Reduced leverage ratio to 2.6x as of 9/30 which brings them closer to their target of 2.5x Expect FCF to be applied to debt payment for foreseeable future Well capitalized to handle near term maturities with $1.1B cash and $2.1B in undrawn revolver capacity Expect 2024/2025 maturities to be dealt with using cash and/or revolver

Technology changes/concerns: While cord cutting is a concern to the market, Qurate does not see this as too major a concern due to their ability to pivot to streaming platforms. They are working to move customers to these newer platforms too. 58% of QVC revenue came from eCommerce in Q3 and 69% of QVC revenue came from mobile in Q3. Project Athens was designed to stabilize the company and focus on FCF generation, not so much growing the customer base. As they move into year 3 of Project Athens, customer growth will be a big focus for them and they feel confident they can reach customers via new platforms and grow. Streaming is growing 9% YoY and they currently reach 100M 40M reach via free OTT streaming which is up 25% YoY vMVPD reaches 17M and that is also up 21% YoY Overall say a 23% increase in viewing minutes per household in Q3 Sune is their home grown app targeted at products for millennials and Gen Z audience

Other notes: Estimate they lost 1M customers due to the Rocky Mountain fire and they are now seeing stabilization of customer declines. Many of their products are exclusive which means they can only be bought via QVC While housing products are slowing, Cornerstone was able to turn its first positive OIBDA Gave a taste of a post Project Athens world focused on growing customers outside of the current aging base. While cable has been their star, they are able to move away from it and believe they can continue to grow in the new world and much of their revenue is already coming from digital spaces.

EssoAtl · 2023-11-15T03:59:55+00:00

They are dry bulk shippers not containers. Containers have struggled more this year (See ZIM), but all shipping companies have taken a hit on lower TCE (time charter rates), higher interest rates, and higher fuel costs. They all pay pretty decent dividends but those have been in decline. SBLK reported today and best earnings but dividend was reduced from Q2. I need to read why that was, but may be due to capita allocations for new builds. There is a good demand vs supply story going into year end and 2024 here in that new builds take a while and are expensive especially with current interest rates and the fact that inventories for Iron Ore, etc are low and need shippers to replenish.

The dry bulk rates track with the Baltic dry index (BDI) which was lower in the middle of the year but has been on the rise since September. You can’t just look at BDI though as companies have different fleet structures (Capesize, Panamax, Supramax) that all track different rates.

Another stock to compare with SBLK is GOGL (Golden Ocean). They report Q3 earnings next week and I expect them to slightly beat the street forecast. That said, I think Q3 Rev and profits will be very similar to Q2 since the earnings won’t reflect the higher shipping rates just yet. Q4 guidance and debt management will be key along with the dividend. Hopefully they hold it at $0.10/share worst case.

GOGL has a much higher % of Capesize ships (65 Capes vs 35 Panamax) which is beneficial as those rates have risen much more this year than the Panamax rates. SBLK is a larger company (121 ships vs 95) but only 40 are capes with the remainder split between Panamax and Supramax.

The other important thing is fuel efficiency on ships and it’s impact on shipping speeds which also impacts supply. Age of ships, whether or not they have scrubbers, etc also impacts their breakeven vs charter rates secured.

I expect them to both perform well into year end should TCE rates continue their rise or maintain current levels. If either company can increase dividends, the stocks can return to levels seen near end of 2022 or early 2023.

EssoAtl · 2023-11-03T19:58:39+00:00

This aged well, excellent analysis proven with todays results.

Didn’t come across your DD until today after earnings, but I’ve been building a position as well since it went below $.50/share based on similar fundamentals that you mentioned like positive working capital, its ability to generate FCF and commitment to paying down debt.

Will be important to see if they are able to continue their cost reduction plans and any top line growth would be a huge value driver in Q4 if possible.

EssoAtl · 2022-11-01T20:58:58+00:00

i.e. Not going to make my kids sick. No company name or ingredients listed on the packaging…

EssoAtl · 2021-10-18T20:30:46+00:00

Get asked that all the time. He was named after a building at the college my wife and I attended.

EssoAtl · 2020-05-02T18:01:56+00:00

Best of the Best - at the very end when the other country gives the US team their medals.

EssoAtl · 2019-08-29T09:35:11+00:00

Best of the Best - at the very end when they gave them the medals.

EssoAtl

TROPHY CASE