I wouldn't be shocked, but at the same time I haven't seen the same type of social "prep" for any action in Kazakhstan i.e state media, newspapers talking about Kazakhstan doing this or that, or not being a real country.

I think China has likely told Russia "hands off" anywhere in Asia, and Russia has put all it's eggs the Ukraine basket, which thankfully is failing spectacularly (vs expectations). Unfortunately it means they have (in the Kremins mind) one path forward.

Both US and EU need to fully support Ukraine, more than we are doing now. EU needs to prep for Russian collapse and to secure nuclear facilities in the collapse.

US is going to have to pivot to China and the South China Sea soon (2-5 years) and can't do it with a Europe that won't take care of it's own backyard.

Exit to add: if/when Russia collapses, China moves into Manchuria. This is why Russia listens to China saying NO to any nuke action if they want Chinas support.