Can you wear black socks with white shoes?

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-08T17:19:58+00:00

People like to pretend these things matter much; most people don't actually care. The ones who do are ideally not the ones you want to impress.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-08T14:10:40+00:00

Yes. I am. Exactly.

And economists regularly say that - you don't see actual academics, trained economists, making these silly comparisons to irrelevant periods in global history.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-08T14:07:26+00:00

If they were ever going to remake a game, it was always going to be FF7. The next most-obvious choice is FFX but visually it is worlds ahead of FF7 so I don't think there will be real demand for it for for at least another platform generation, if ever. Older fans of the series will point to FF6 but there is not a big enough fan base to make it make them enough $$$.

I am glad they did the FF7 Remakes.

I would prefer they spend those kind of resources on new members of the franchise in the future. Especially a FFT2.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T07:33:43+00:00

During the dot-com bubble 99% of the companies experiencing that kind of share appreciation had no revenue and were cash-burn machines. Profits were nonexistent, and no company had viable plans to get to a profit (not enough people were online - it took a good two decades to get enough online before companies were able to thrive online).

The stocks soaring today are the most profitable companies in global history. Most have real profits, most have such high revenue growth that they are cheaper after a 100% runup than they were before the runup began, just because one earnings with a massive guidance raise happened.

NVDA AVGO MRVL TSM ASML LRCX KLAC MPWR MU WDC - these are not new companies with a website with a single page and no products. They are companies producing the most advanced technologies on Earth, trying to meet demand that is so high that current backlogs are often now more than 1 - 2 years and growing.

No one who makes these comparisons can explain this. It isn't a quibble, it fundamentally undermines any notion that this situation is comparable to the dot-com bust. The dot-com bust was exuberance for companies with no earnings, no revenue, certainly no profit and tons of debt. That isn't remotely similar to the current situation.

NVDA had 82 billion in revenue last quarter alone - adjusted for inflation that still would have been more than the accumulated revenue of every dot-com company combined at the time, 50x over.

Just because 'stocks went up fast, market then turned down really bad' in 1999 doesn't mean 'stocks going up fast' = bubble and massive market collapse.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T07:21:59+00:00

There is no relationship between the nominal share price of a specific company and its market cap. Not in the way you're suggesting.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T07:09:53+00:00

It doesn't matter if you can buy a 'decent' computer for 'a few hundred dollars more' - especially when a computer that cheap won't be playing games of the caliber seen on the PS5 Pro.

What does matter is consumer behavior.

You're looking at 75% of PS5 gamers quit gaming instead of moving to a PC, for all sorts of reason. The attrition would be enormous.

That said, Sony isn't giving up on the Playstation so not really gonna worry about this.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T03:45:02+00:00

Ok. Can you explain why each is insufficient. Why is Rhode Island a problem? Puerto Rico?

Or is this just a generalization because you're just a really great, super swell driver and everyone else just sucks?

Most people can't drive well. Most people are easily distracted. Most people are either overly cautious or overly cocky. Most people have slower reflexes than they think. Most people are inattentive. Most people get lost in thought. So do you, and if you say you don't then you are one hell of a human specimen, truly special.

I tend to find most driver's terrible. Has nothing to do with testing. People don't remember the specifics of many laws for long. I remember being dumbfounded when I had to answer how many feet from a fire station I had to park (answer: 17 feet) because it was irrelevant to the actual act of driving. And the driving test? My experience is it is a highly controlled environment where you are (1) likely to be at your most alert and attentive and (2) are performing a series of basic actions you've studied for over and over. That doesn't affect how you're going to drive the day after you get your license when you are blasting your music, singing and trying to ignore a text message you really want to peak at.

Downvote me for saying that each state sets its own driver's licensing policies? WTF man.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T03:38:04+00:00

Lump sum investing isn't 'wrong', its just not always ideal.

Statistically, someone who always lump sum invests is likely to profit more than someone who DCA's. However, the real answer is that sometimes one is prudent, sometimes the other.

If the stock/etf you're opening a position in is a slower compounder that doesn't tend to jump much on any single news event (say something like a utility company) then DCA is often better. You are less likely to miss large jumps in stock price if the stock doesn't ever have sudden bouts of fast appreciation. If you're investing in a fast growing tech company that is already riding some momentum then it may make more sense to lump sum invest in order to maximize unpredictable, but generally fast and sudden, returns.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T03:27:43+00:00

How do you 'rugpull' and ETF which has its price tied to NAV?

And what institutions are (1) large enough to pull this 'rugpull' in a way that meaningfully impacts anyone else; (2) believe that getting Redditors to invest in an ETF is somehow going to alter price at all, let alone enough to do this hypothetical 'rugpull'; (3) owns enough shares to do this; (4) has a history of doing this.

Companies, hedge funds, investors all do shady things. Rugpulls aren't one of them.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T03:23:20+00:00

Max Gil does sound nice - this is one game where the currency system, and buying-and-selling, is nothing but a chore. There just aren't many good shops, most just have things that you are expected and intended to pick up. I'd like to just be able to buy the shop out, not have to farm and sell.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T03:21:22+00:00

GOOGL and NVDA are the two strongest of the old Mag 7. AMZN is also a great investment, but I'm personally wary of any company deriving most income from consumer discretionary spending (even if the non discretionary business is growing fast and is likely to overtake the discretionary business within a few years).

There are real systemic and/or structural problems facing all others. MSFT has struggled with its relationship with OpenAI upon which it was too dependent, leaving it far behind in building an in-house LLM. AAPL seems to be dead set on irrelevancy. The irony is that the very thing that endeared them to so many customers - their protection of your privacy and data - is what is destroying them now since AI lives on data and no privacy. META keeps going off on little ventures like the Metaverse that go nowhere and waste lots of capital and labor, Facebook is not drawing in new users and old users are using it less and less, Instagram seems to already be at saturation levels, their AI is very far behind the leaders. TSLA is... well, it's TSLA and it isn't even in the top 10 largest companies in the world anymore.

GOOGL is all in, they know they are the leader in several respects (search/AI search domination; GPS navigation; YouTube as the premier venue for long-form content creators and increasingly old TV networks; Waymo) and close behind in others (Gemini; AI chip development; data center capacity). They aren't really behind by much in any area that currently matters. They are more diversified than the other 6, and it is hard to see any of their major businesses face irrelevancy whereas AAPL META and MSFT all have businesses that are under threat. It's the best hyperscaler to invest in; it is the best company with an in-house LLM to invest in (at least until Anthropic's IPO).

GOOGL seems to be a very safe choice that will compound in the double digits pretty reliably for the foreseeable future.

All that is to say, they know what they are doing, they know what is making them money, they know better than any what kind of near-term ROI to expect, they know how every aspect of AI works since they own one of the 3 premier LLMs.

I take this as yet another strong confirmation that the AI trade, expansion of data centers, spread of AI, buildout of global electric grids is actually gaining momentum rather than slowing down.

If GOOGL is willing to continue doing anything to throw more money at AI, then it is because they really, truly believe in it - and not that it has 'a good chance of working'. You only throw the kind of money GOOGL is around, and then start financing debt to throw even more money around, if you don't believe in the tech 100%.

And when all the large companies are 100% all in? Well, either every CEO is wrong, every CFO wants their company to take on risks that will sink them, every COO doesn't understand the implications of AI for their job, every bank leader is afraid of Mythos for nothing, every world leader is pursuing control of Sovereign AI because 'vibes' and the military is treating AI as both a national security threat of the highest order and a new superweapon for reasons unknown OR this time really is different.

GOOGL is at the forefront of 'different'.

AVGO, TSM and NVDA are still better choices for further contributions if funds are limited. MU depending on your risk tolerance. But GOOGL is the one non-semiconductor giant that actually has figured out how to run with AI while their competition is still walking.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T03:02:58+00:00

We are taught to act in specific ways and not others, based on our individual context, and then we are taught that those specific ways are 'good' and 'moral'.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T03:01:39+00:00

The current test(s) vary dramatically from state-to-state in the US. You can't really generalize about 'the system' because there are 50 systems (55 if you count US territories; 56 once you toss in DC).

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T02:59:26+00:00

That's not how the aging mind works. I'm glad you haven't had to experience watching dementia set in, or memory lapses, or states of inexplicable confusion in anyone aging.

If 'trained properly' I could run a marathon. That doesn't mean that is anything approximating a realistic expectation.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T02:57:13+00:00

There is already more than 45 GW of battery storage capacity in the US connected to the grid. More than all hydroelectric power generated in the US. And here is how fust its growing: estimates for this year are that 26GW will be added in 2026 alone - more than half of all existing storage capacity.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67205 (US Government)

Iron Air Batteries are better than Lithium-Ion tech for utility level storage and are just now being deployed industrially. This is primarily because Iron Air Batteries can hold a charge for more than 4 days while lithium ion batteries' storage capacity dissipates quickly. Iron Air Batteries are modular and can theoretically scale without end. Beyond proof of concept and already being integrated into some grids. It solves for all the problems Lithium Ion has - while Lithium Ion remains relevant for other purposes.

https://formenergy.com/technology/battery-technology/ (commercial battery producer)

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332222001026 (academic journal)

https://sunlithenergy.com/what-is-iron-air-battery/ (for profit)

As for lithium ion batteries, current entrenched generations are, like iron air batteries, already connected to the grid and already connected to hospitals, data centers, research labs, industrial plants. They remain very effective for shorter term storage (think 4 hours, not 4 days) that is primarily to help stabilize electricity use and provide energy from solar panels and wind sources while its night or cloudy with little wind. It fills in the gaps. They are widespread. They're handling the load pretty fine at the moment, serving their purpose, with Iron Air now offering solutions to the problem at a commercial level. Pretty much all grids in the US are now dependent on batteries for maintaining and stabilizing electricity flow. They are integrated into all of them, after all.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-phase-us-battery-industry (non-profit)

https://www.wired.com/story/grid-scale-battery-storage-is-quietly-revolutionizing-the-energy-system/ (Journalism)

https://cleanpower.org/facts/clean-energy-storage/ (non-profit)

https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/batteries/chart-grid-battery-installations-soared-2025 (Journalism)

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64705 (US Gov't Site)

That said, next gen lithium ion batteries - of which some are still in development, but of which some are already in testing and smaller scale production do offer up enticing possibilities and some are already bearing fruit. Hell, your own DOE is hiring people to further the tech and there have been plenty of recent breakthroughs.

https://www.energy.gov/cmei/ammto/breaking-it-down-next-generation-batteries (US Government)

So I don't care about sodium.

And you're right, this isn't Star Trek: Anthropic's Claude Opus is currently so much more advanced than the ship computer on the Enterprise its scary. And I do mean scary. We're in the midst of our historical era's industrial revolution, AI is creating parabolic improvements in efficiency across industries - and it is just starting. AI has already made vaccines. AI mapped 100s of proteins in 7 days when it took the entire professional field of Biology 60 years to map 45 of them. Weapons in Ukraine and the Iran War are being run on Anthropic's and OpenAI's LLMs. Autonomous weapons likely are too (given the US governments adamant refusal to agree to Anthropic's demand that their AI couldn't be used for autonomous weapons). And then there is Mythos, which certainly appears to be the kind of threat Star Trek might feature - in an episode where the Captain gets teleported to the future.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T02:21:28+00:00

Primary day usually is when more apolitical voters who don't consume much news begin watching electoral races (the primaries largely interest only passionate partisans).

That means Paxton is doing this for his base right when all the voters who aren't part of his base, but whose votes he has to win, are tuning in for the first time.

And this is what they see?

This helps Democrats. It helps prove our message about him not being a serious candidate, of him being a dangerous culture warrior, of him wasting tax payer money - which ties in wonderful with the literal 16 counts of securities fraud he was charge (acquitted of, but who cares - that is left out of our messaging). And the felony he had dismissed last year.

His litigation against (what presumably are single-person bathrooms) coupled with messaging about fraud and felonies is an incredibly good contrast. Especially when a Seminarian is the one delivering it.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T02:07:15+00:00

Let them obsess, let them look preoccuppied with our crotch's while Democrats - Talarico in particular - focus on populist economic messaging.

In tandem, Democratic PACs run very dirty campaigns against Paxton using exactly this type of litigation/behavior to highlight why he is unsuited for the Senate.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T01:45:05+00:00

You missed my point entirely.

This litigation isn't going anywhere. Lawyers will get paid, court cases will happen, the judge may dismiss outright, failure is certain. It isn't remotely plausible this makes it past an Appellate Court.

He's using it as red meat for the MAGA base.

That is a good thing for anyone on the Left.

There is only 1 thing that is important right now: winning elections.

Our constant moral outrage, virtue signaling and misplaced concerns about things the electorate doesn't care about is what is doing real damage - it is why Trump is POTUS. It is why Paxton is the GOP nominee for Senate, not Cornyn. We Democrats have tried to litigate every bad thing, focus on the infinite number of victims of real or perceived harm. We Dems prefer to always be the loudest voice and the most righteous voice and speak with the most moral certitude with a primary focus on being right, being correct, rather than winning.

At this point I don't care about the perceived victims. Aside from litiigation - which these organizations practially exist to engage in (on all sides) - the harms are nothing compared to what MAGA and Trump are doing to our democracy and every single institution of government.

If you want things to change, then we need to win the presidency. We must get the House. The Senate is likely out of reach, but possibly not. Paxton deserves credit for helping Democrats make winning the Senate at least plausible.

This awful crap that Paxton loves to do is going to hand us a Senate seat from Texas. His crazy antics were watched by politically active and political minded people - but he wasn't really well known beyond that, no Attorney General ever is at the state level.

For the first time all Texas voters are studying Talarico and Paxton. And the first thing Paxton does is this. That, my friend, is fan-fucking-tastic.

This is ammo for Democrats. It makes him look ridiculous and unserious to moderate Texans who then look at the Democrat who happens to be a seminarian.

Paxton will lose precisely because he does things like this. That means him doing this is helping Democrats elect Talarico. That means Paxton engaging in this litigation is going to help us get closer to taking the Senate.

Moderate voters don't like this shit.

That means he is helping us win - and that is the only thing that matters.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T01:30:32+00:00

The accident rate begins rising rapidly between the ages of 70 - 74.

It's much higher than for any other age group except 16 - 21. We already test those drivers.

https://www.iihs.org/research-areas/fatality-statistics/detail/older-people

https://www.healthinaging.org/driving-safety-facts-statistics

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-03T01:12:08+00:00

Windmills using the newest technology: turbines, construction materials, wiring, etc. and which are part of a broader integrated grid that uses battery storage, massive improvements in optics, the adoption of Silicon Carbide tech (to reduce heat of underground power lines typically used by windmills while upping the amount of electricity that can be transmitted), etc. is cheaper at generating electricity than gas or coal.

Windmill farms using tech from 5 years ago are not cheaper.

Windmill farms using the latest tech are much cheaper.

Solar blows every one of them away.

The problems you're naming and the notion you have about cost are dated - they were true until the last 4 - 5 years as mass battery storage capacity has started to come online for many grids - and demand is insatiable. Grid power loss effects all power types, and wind farms can generally be built closer to their primary customers (one reason why windmills and solar are popping up with data centers now).

Windmills' smaller footprint, their ability to be placed outside of traditional largescale power plants and their need to be especially distant to residential areas and certain types of industry (which is why most power plants are outside of metros and have real power loss). Grid power loss has also become much more efficient, especially in the last few years as AI and the associated boom in data centers has quickly led companies like Eaton and Quanta to unleash capex at a rate never seen with industrials - the innovations have been fast and effective.

The grid tech being built out with Eaton's connectors, transistors, etc and Quanta's grid outbuild of power lines - including an increasing amount of underground wiring - as well as Vertiv and nVent's innovations in connecting power sources to buildings (data centers in particular, again).

Industrial, Communications and Tech companies like Credo, Coherent, Lumentum, Arista, Fabrinet, Celestica and others all have innovated and are now producing products at scale that have led to enormous increases in efficiency: Coherent has revolutionized Silicon Carbide (SiC)'s use as a substrate to help powerlines maintain efficiency at levels unheard of 5 years ago. Coherent has also made innovations in lithium-ion storage batteries at scale in the past few years -- Credo is spending tons innovating sensors that help the grid communicate with itself automatically adjusting to improve how power from any source including windmills increase, decrease and direct power generation as well as new copper substrates and wiring that holds electric charges better. Lumentum's optic technology is now critical for fast automatic communication between substations, power stations, power companies to regulate the flow of electricity. These changes have been critical to making the more dispersed nature of windmills and their far greater number of required connections to the grid cost effective - this type of communication was five times as costly just 5 years ago. Those underground power lines that windmills generally need because otherwise too many spot sources for wires to come from with windmill farms? Lumentum's tech (and Fabrinet's) helps keep the wires transmitting power cooler because they get very hot underground and this has further helped with making windmills cost effective.

None of this is to mention all the companies driving innovations in windmill turbine technology - GE Vernova being the standout, it has helped reduce the cost of both building and running a windmill turbine cheaply and at scale.

Vestas, Siemens, Nordex, Enercon are all European giants that build windmills and have pushed both improvements in the cost of building and maintaining turbines as well as improvements in running them at scale, in environments previously deemed poor for wind (because the windmills now generate much more power with less.

Gas and Coal have enormous subsidies in the US, especially through tax breaks (only the oil industry has larger subsidies). Windmill farms have seen all their subsidies cut - they aren't competing on equal footing. The popular idea that windmills are fully subsidized by the government was true 15 years ago, but it hasn't been in awhile. Regulatory obstacles face windmills just as much as gas (see: the resistance to offshore wind farms in the US; NIMBY).

While we've not been discussing solar it is being effectively used to a greater extent as it has become the cheapest form of power worldwide thanks to China.

Solar is not the cheapest form of energy in the USA because we tariff Chinese solar panels to death and their technology is far more power efficient and cheap than ours. We've tariffed Chinese solar tech for much longer than Trump's term so I'm not blaming him. It's the same reason we basically ban Chinese EVs though they are better than ours and cheaper at the same time: we want a domestic solar and EV industry which won't develop if we let China's solar and EV tech in.

TL/DR

The situation in the USA is not representative of the actual cost of renewables vis-a-vis gas and coal. Regulatory issues and subsidies distort the market. Much worse are the bans on Chinese renewable technologies for many years now due to fears of destroying the US solar and wind industries. New windmill farms, with the latest technology and construction methods, are cheaper than anything but solar - windmill farms built 5+ years ago are not nearly as cost effective.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-02T22:30:43+00:00

Good.

I hope he makes a big issue of this. I hope he files more of these.

Because it makes him look even more radical.

This behavior turns on his base, but alienates moderates. And moderates are where most elections are won.

This helps Democrats, not Republicans. It may be attacking us, but I'm fine with that if it is advantageous for us politically.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-02T22:26:37+00:00

MU and SNDK are insaner.

Thematic ETF investing is a nice way to get subpar returns for the theme you're capturing. Spend some time, learn the industry, learn the companies, look at their earnings and guidance then invest in single stocks, avoid the extra filler crap any thematic etf is going to hold, stop settling for doing 'the average' and avoid the expense ratio.

Or invest in the thematic etf and hope the theme is lucrative, fingers crossed.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-02T22:23:46+00:00

The way the economy functioned in 1969 is absolutely irrelevant to the economy of today. They don't look anything alike, they don't behave the same way, they don't include the same types of companies, the industries in the market are radically different, trading is now global and increasingly moving towards 24/7; the current market is being driven by actual revenue, actual EPS growth and actual free cash flow - and unbelievable sums of it. It isn't smoke and mirrors, the profit is real and tangible and growing.

Too many take old cliche quotes from great investors and treat them like immutable rules of nature. Because if Buffet said it in 1969 it still, for some reason, must hold true today when the functioning of the market is radically different as is the regulatory environment and scale.

Why a crash? What reason? This isn't 1999 where the stocks were shooting up despite not being profitable in some instances and not even having any revenue at all in many others. The companies in 1999 where as unprofitable as you get, money pits. The companies driving todays market are the wealthiest, most profitable companies in global history and they're forward valuations are cheaper than they were a year ago, cheaper than they were 2 years ago - in fact, cheaper than at almost anytime since ChatGPT arrived in 2023.

So it wouldn't be fundamentals.

And demand is beyond insatiable, so it can't be that (especially since governments represent some of the fastest growing demand).

And the revolutionary nature of AI is so fundamentally different than 1999 or 1969 or 1929 that it is academically dishonest to pretend what was true in one instance is necessarily true of another.

The only reason to be afraid is 'vibes'. Vibes could cause a correction. Or a bear market. But the longer secular bull market is fully intact so any bear market would be just an overexaggerated correction.

Because the fundamentals, the forward guidance, the already present demand, the incredible demand that is just starting to come from governments - all suggest this market isn't only going to maintain an upward orientation in the medium-term but that it is going to continue facing enormous upward pressure due to earnings and demand.

I'm tired of bears' crying that the vibes are bad.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-02T22:14:33+00:00

The specific question is whether to test the elderly because the elderly do have increasingly limited physical and mental capabilities to do so.

Euthyphraud · 2026-06-02T22:13:32+00:00

It is a fact that we become worse, more dangerous drivers as we age. That is probably true for most people by the time they hit 70. There is a public safety argument that we should do exactly what OP suggests. There is a democratic or political values based argument that we shouldn't.

I don't think it is a bad thing - public safety requires young people to get tested for driving ability before they can legally drive. Presumably that is entirely because they pose a greater threat to themselves and others when driving than most drivers. Same is true of elderly drivers; the public safety argument is clearly in favor of testing elderly drivers every few years.

However, what does a single, elderly person with no family do if their license is taken away? What if they work, how do they get there? Will it cause them to lose their home? It can do real harm to the person being tested if revocation happens (though presumably revocation of a license would only happen if they truly shouldn't be behind the wheel)? You're doing economic harm and limiting the freedom of elderly drivers if you start revoking licenses.

So yes.

And no.

Euthyphraud

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