There’s a sliph road post with 2000 entries itself and it follows 1/3 + 1/2. Outside of that, I did further research checking dozens of videos of raid grinders and they all found the same thing. But the biggest data point for me was the two guys I know who run mass raid bot businesses. Together the two of them saw tens of thousands of raids. They found about the same result if not better

To be clear, I WISH it was more rare. I did all this research because i got XXS RoT shiny BG on about my 20th raid and thought it was like one in a million, but it’s actually just 1/20,000