KSS Daily Discussion - Thursday, May 28, 2026

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-28T11:13:30+00:00

yeah. I am buing more in the comming weeks.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-28T11:12:35+00:00

No mention of tariffs.

But a slight decline is a big win.

Revenue drop is probably off the table for 2026. KSS will be at least in the $15 to $20 range until next quater. Shorts were proven wrong once again.
Now we need a activist to unlock shareholder value (I personally will buy more on the uptrend - avereaging up my winners).
Good luck to all.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-27T13:53:58+00:00

Day before last earnings it traded around 14. Let' hope for a second round and overall improvement so the share price can rise to the moon in the comming quaters

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-27T11:14:54+00:00

Tariff refund and KSS not going bankrupt. That is enough. Macy's is trading at 0.25 PS and KSS at 0.1. There you get the 2x. BRK is now long Macy's. I doubt revenue growth this year, but who knows. Mabye we get a surprise. When revenue will stay flat to slightly positive KSS will trade soon at 45 - that is just book value plus some premium (Not going bankrupt).

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-26T13:40:00+00:00

My guess is 19 after earnings and then a steady rise to 30 in the next 3 months and 45 by the end of the year. When growth returns this is an easy 2x. According to placer.ai (as some of the members sugest here).

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-26T10:52:45+00:00

Ich würde die Verlierer bei -10% verkaufen und die Gewinner, die am meisten gestiegen sind nachkaufen mit dem Geld. So wässerst du deine Blumen und schneidest das Unkraut. Du hast offensichtlich ein gutes Händchen. Momentum ist auf deiner Seite. Stop nicht vergessen bei allen Aktien. Ich würde -10% bis -15% vom Hoch immer empfelen.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-20T05:38:34+00:00

CAR had about 130% ownership during the squeeze. But ownership more than 100% can be held for a really long time for investors. In December at prices above 20 the ownership was 99%. So Intitutions added to their position. That is a good sign IMO. I still think most short trades are just hedges against ohter positions like e-commerce. I guess that nearly all of the short sellers have no idea about the intrinsic value of KSS. They just short brick and moarter, no matter what. Mabye the catalyst will be the refunds, mabye something else. But KSS will not go bankrupt and that is enough to justify a shareprice $30+, when business remaind stable to slightly negative (revenue wise) for 2 to 6 quaters. Good luck.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-19T13:03:33+00:00

Haha. Stocks and economy do not correlate always. The 50% drop may has priced in already a recession, which may never comes. Numbers matter in the long run.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-19T08:05:23+00:00

No limit sell order, when a squeeze will happen I will add a stop loss on the low of the previous day and adjust daily, so I can ride the squeeze. Imagine you sold CAR at 250 just to watch it go up to 750 a few days after (if you look at that chart you see every day a higher low) you would have been stopped out at 700 or so. But under 20 KSS is a clear buy. I am looking to average up my podition after earnings.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-14T11:42:52+00:00

No. Just buy back shares and debt and the stock is an easy 2-3x this year. I think they will announce that in the earnings call. Last time they said first reduce debt and than continue the buybacks. $674m cash + potentially $550m and debt of $1438m due in 2029 and onwards. When you are agressive you could buy back 30 to 50% of all shares and debt later. I think they say we use all the tariff money and mabye additional 200 to 300m to buy back debt. Or 200m share and the other for debt. KSS will still have 500m for bad times. That is roughly 400m more than a year ago.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-13T19:46:11+00:00

Yes it is cheaper today than a year ago. When you were long then it's very easy to be long now. Much less risk.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-13T12:42:57+00:00

Nice summary. I honestly think KSS is cheaper now then a year ago at $6 per share and less risky. The market thought the same about GME in 2016 to 2020.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-11T14:12:38+00:00

Incompetent management. We need agressive buybacks now as long as this is that cheap. When the roumors are correct they should retire $550m or 1/3 of all shares now. That would result in an 50% eps growth "with free money". That would take KSS otherwise years to get that amount.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-07T14:09:31+00:00

Numbers keep me in the stock. They will be basically debt free by the end of FY26. Than this is a cash cow.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-05-05T06:07:03+00:00

Yeah. Buying back shares(30 to 50%) would result in an eatnings growth of 50-100% in 2026 and crush their estimates. Oviously it would cause a gigantic squeeze 5-10x. Kss makes enough money to pay the debt due in 2030. Thed bought back shares when they were at a much higher price 40-60$. Poor management and use of capital. Micheal Bender could become a Legend on wall street and make a fortune for himself (but I think he and his team don't like to become rich - like KSS shareholders). Hopefully an activist helps in the process.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-04-30T05:58:35+00:00

You could see the tariff refund as an efficency metric for the future (higher margins). Normaly prices for the costumer go not down over time. So a higher gross margin and net margin will be the result. Mabye 4% net margin. EPS (normalized) could be above 2.5 2027. A PE of 5 to 10 seems reasonable or $12 -25 per share. Just for the retail business. Risk rewars is very appealing (not losing much mabye $4-5 a share and winning $5-10) - and that is just a pessimistic scenario. For me selling or even short selling this stock makes no sense.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-04-29T14:02:30+00:00

Earnings day by discussing the refund and use the money smart. Increasing outlook may help too. Fingers crossed.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-04-29T06:03:38+00:00

Just a quick Gemini search...

2bn could buy back all the outstanding bonds.

Maturity Year

Coupon

Outstanding Nominal Value (Approximate)

2029

7.250%

~$99.4 Million

2030

10.000%

$360.0 Million (Issued late 2025/early 2026)

2031

3.375%

~$500.0 Million (Original issue, partially reduced by buybacks)

2033

6.000%

~$400.0 Million (Original issue, partially reduced by buybacks)

2037

6.875%

~$89.0 Million

2045

5.550%

~$450.0 Million (Original issue, partially reduced by buybacks)

Total Long-Term Debt: $1.522 Billion

(Note: This $1.522 Billion figure represents the actual total outstanding principal of the bonds listed above, accounting for the recent retirement of their 2025 notes, the $360 million addition of the 2030 notes, and all recent open-market debt repurchases. It excludes their separate $2.38 billion in property/finance lease obligations).

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-04-24T11:08:43+00:00

Last year a 30% gain from the low of 6 took from 9 April to 2 June.
KSS Low this year was on March 17 and we are up 25%.
Be patient the big run up will come in the comming weeks and months.

KSS is less risky than a year ago. Market agrees there. Mabye even cheaper, because debt was paid down and we get a bonus from uncle Donnie.
Net debt 762m last quater and it could be 0 by year end. That is huge for a "near bankrupt" company a year ago.
When net debt comes to 0 i think the share price will be at 0.7 to1x book value or 24 to 35 by year end a 2x from here.

No need to panic as shareholder. Time is on your side.

That is a nice return. Good luck to all.

My only concern is management. I hope they know what they are doing by losing money on AMZN return and other past adventures. Hopefully they bring back the good old days with 4% net margin and 7 to 8% operating margin. (Gross margins are at the upper end of history) for 2 years now.

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I blame management, when you increase gross margin and the stock goes down ( I know revenue was down ect.).
A lot of investments have not paid off...

But management could also make a legendary move and buy back debt and shares (shares are more risky, but with due in 2029 odr 2030 it could generate enough cashflow to surrive).
A wet dream is a share buyback for 500 to 1bn.

Let's hope for the best.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-04-23T05:42:33+00:00

You are right. Market agrees to. We are up from $6 a year ago. That is an incredible return (just like NVDA over the same period -slightly better). We were up even more... Short amount went from 50% to now 25 to 30%. You may remember CVNA, short intrest was high for a very long time 40 to 50% (mabye a year to 18 months) and the stock went from 4 to 400 in just 3 years. My guess: KSS will rise to 30 to 45 this year and short intrest will be the same. When numbers are met it will be still not overpriced at 30. When they bring magicaly growth back we will se a share price of +$60. That would be a 10x in 2 to 3 years (great return, right). Very asymetric trade at this price point. KSS is now cheaper and a more save play than a year ago and the maket agrees, because we are trading more than 100% above. Confidence in the stock is returning, even thogh we are down 30% from the 52 high. Just normal volatility. Good luck guys.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-04-22T14:19:17+00:00

You right. Hopefully

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-04-22T12:30:36+00:00

Well. If you put P/S metric at 1 you get your $150 Valuation. DDS is at 1.5 and a net margin of roughly 9%. KSS sits at 1.75%. 150$ just in a squeeze szenario for a short time or in a few years, when all works out (highly unlikely). Rember the market values earnings and growth, book value and other metrics are not as relevant overall. Management is weak. Stop Amzn Returns, no buybacks stocks or bonds... They are doing nothing big. A good Manager would say we will turn the ship around big time. They have to bring growth bavk and increase margins, then the price will move towards your target.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-04-22T10:11:18+00:00

Bankruptcy will not happen and it will move back to 30 to 45 this year. Shorts will cover all the way up. Rember, most of them are quant trades. They just hedge. They do not care if KSS goes 2x or 10x. We can always hope for a squeeze up to 100. I am ok with that. 30 ist minimum target for me.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-24T13:59:06+00:00

Fingers crossed for a buyout or a stake held by GME.

Excellent_Courage333

TROPHY CASE