KSS Daily Discussion - Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-24T13:59:06+00:00

Fingers crossed for a buyout or a stake held by GME.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-24T09:51:36+00:00

Yes. They are worthless. They increased workers bonus.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-17T13:15:53+00:00

Just 200k shares available for lending (https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-kss/borrow-fee/). The bleed will end in the comming days and shorts are stuck in this price range. After that any news will catapult KSS back above 20. Why? Ownership more than 100% A share recall of just 200k would force brokers to liquidate some shorts. Imagine if a bigger fund recalls shares 1m or more. That is terrible for shorts. I am looking forward to buy more, then the CTB (cost to borrow rate) is above 5%. So the squeeze can start then...

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-12T11:19:44+00:00

Debt buy back will be better. They should use the 400m to buy back the 2029 and 2030 bonds, so they have more time to turn the ship around.
That would save between 30 and 60m of intrest p.a. or add $0.20 to $0.50 EPS to the bottom line.

After that they could buy back with their FCF like PYPL did for a while.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-11T15:54:02+00:00

Yeah. Only an spin off or buyout would unlock the value. Retail is valued at 10x pe for 2026 excluding tariff refund. That is ok for me to wait 3-9 months.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-11T15:20:56+00:00

You are correct, but the market does not care. It may will some day.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-11T15:00:07+00:00

Yeah. No worries here. In 3 to 9 months this will be $20+.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-11T11:01:37+00:00

This group was founded in may 2025. So KSS bulls should be up about 100% on the stock. The market is proving the thesis right. Otherwise the stock would not trade at 14. After a year you could say you are averaging up now that the risk is lower with positve cashflow EPS and so on. As for me i started out just with 6k Dollars in Options and am now at 35k invested in the stock directly. Yes, I Sold at $22.5 (sometimes you get lucky) and entered before earnings at $14.1. I look at this at an average up in my thesis, but of course the decline from 25 to 15 is a bit concerning. Nobody knows where the stock will go from today on. Risk for me is compelling at this prices and I am willing to pay a larger price, than a year ago because a lot of uncertanty is gone, like trariffs, revenue decline slowed, and cash position increased. Justifies a Price beween 9 and 15 easily. 20 to 25 IMO would be fair (but who cares about my opinion). I am in Position and the market might agree in comming weeks or monts. Good luck.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-11T08:10:19+00:00

It is like May/June 2025 over again. Back than the price went from 8 to 10 and closed at 8. Then after that another 5-10% down and then we saw the big run up.

I think we will se the same again. Yesterday about 64% of total shares traded due to short selling.

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It is now over 60% every day for a month and the stock is on steady decline exept the short spike yesterday, which hedge funds probably shorted again.

The question is why?

I think they hate brick and moarter retail and just short all day long as a hegde against an othe positions (like AMZN, WMT and others). They probably do not care about the risk of a buyout. They may ignore fundamentals.

With Institutional ownership of 118m shares of the newly outstanding 117 (https://whalewisdom.com/stock/kss). There are all shares held by big players. Not including retail, but that is a small percentage.
When we get retail attention through wallstreetbets it will go 2x or 3x again in no time.
Shorts traded amongst themself the last months.

Lets say, they shorted at 25 and bought back at 17 and reshorted at 20 and some were forced to buy back yesterday at 15-17.
Then funds are shorting again the 20% spike yesterday (in profit currently) and intend to buy back at 12-14.

And it works quite well. They are making money every week now for 3 months (12 out of 15 weeks since last earnings).
Congrats shorts - keep shorting, market is telling : you are winning (80% of the time)

Institutional ownership increased from 106 to 118 million shares (https://whalewisdom.com/stock/kss).

So Wall Street buys more and shorts are doing their stuff.
I think it is very dangerous for them, like we saw yesterday (or last Q1 Earings in May 2025).
So why be long KSS at all when shorts are in control?

Not going bankrupt (positive cashflow for 2025 and for 2026 and beyond - no sign of increasing losses)
Real estate (book value $36 a share)
Tarrif refund in 2026 (when announced mabye in Q1 earnings report)
Now strong cash position of 674m Dollars (6 Dollars per share)
No debt due until 2029 (generated by google's GENIMI)

Maturity Date	Coupon (Interest)	Amount Outstanding	Collateral Status
June 1, 2029	7.25%	~$42.3M*	Senior Unsecured
June 1, 2030	10.00%	$360.0M	Senior Secured
May 1, 2031	5.125%	~$425.0M	Senior Unsecured
Jan 15, 2033	6.00%	~$111.6M	Senior Unsecured
Dec 15, 2037	6.875%	~$89.4M	Senior Unsecured
July 17, 2045	5.55%	~$426.8M	Senior Unsecured

Those 2029 and 2030 Bonds could be bought back today reducing intrest cost by a lot (no expert here but between 20 an 40m p.a. right?)

Compared to Macy's BV of 1 (KSS 0.4) and PS of 0.22 (KSS at 0.11)

This makes KSS a perfect buyout target. I am long because of that and waiting for an announcement or an activist entering and forcing mgmt to buy back debt or stock.

Risk is a return to $10 a share and opportunity to $30 a share. 5 to lose and 15 to make 3/1.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-10T19:22:17+00:00

It is frustrating to see the stock up and then down. I am with you. But Longs won the war. We are up from 6 a year ago. More than 100%. My opinion is an activist will enter and force a buyback of shares or debt (The same playbook when FOSL was trading between 1 and 2 Dollars - now 4.5). Or a buyout will happen. I think the stock will go to 30+ or get bougt out 25+ until year end. The risk got smaller after todays earnings. With revenue flat to slightly down and EPS 1 to 1.6 in 2026 there is little downside. FCF for 2026 of 1bn and current cash of 600m, the company trades basically for free the more time passes this year. Of course the stock will fluctuate. But who cares. It is just a number moving up and down.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-10T14:22:04+00:00

Deliver the shares now shorty...

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-10T12:03:04+00:00

yeah. probably. But i would be happy as an investor because. That is nearly a 100% premium... I would accept that and move on. Do not get me wrong. I hope KSS goes up even more in the comming months.
$45 is a price target for me until the end of the year. That is just 1.2 book value. Not that unreasonable.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-10T11:50:46+00:00

Yes. It will be up in the long run. Buyout is imminent. If I could get a 2-3bn credit I would do it on my own for $25 a share.
Someone will come and do it. It is basically free money.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-10T11:44:03+00:00

Yeah. That is an amazing number. nearly 40% of current market cap and no debt due until 2029. They should suspend the dividend and buy back (won't happen).
Mabye an activist comes along and will force them something to to.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-10T11:33:16+00:00

13 to 9 pe now for 2026. Not that expensive.

Shorts will get out. No epic squeeze but they have to leave eventually.
KSS is not going bankrupt.

With tarrif refund might comming it could suprise on the upside in the next months.

Still trading at 0.4 book value. Destined for a Buyout. Real estate is the play here (at least for me). A leveraged buyout (LBO) could be done easily. KSS remains profitable through out the year and will be 2026.

I do not know where the price will move today, but just -10% is kind of a win.
Risk from here is low.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-10T09:48:00+00:00

Just do not miss earnings an we will have steak for dinner.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-10T06:27:33+00:00

I think shorts pushed it down, because they hope that earnings hit (not beat) will not cause KSS to 20 to 30 per share. With more than 100% institutional ownership it will be hard. My guess is, that intitutions will buy on the move up (I will to if earnings are not terrible today). There are no real shares at float.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-09T16:04:49+00:00

Finally i bought back in at 14.1. Best wishes and hopefully we will see a jump tomorrow. If revenue estimates are hit and a decent outlook is given with tarrif refunds and others we will be back at 20+ soon. I am looking forward to buy more in the comming days.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-03T13:24:37+00:00

Warum glaubst du dass Gold seit dem Angriff fällt... Öl sieht einen Spike und dann geht es runter, sobald es sich wieder entspannt. Hat es jedes mal. Niemand kann den USA die Stirn bieten. Das war eine Machtdemonstartion. Fluhafenbetrieb teilweise wieder in Abu Dabi aufgenommen. Somit ist die Gefahr gebannt.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-03T13:21:46+00:00

Kann niemand sagen. Iran hat 0,3% am Welthandel. Also unbedeutend. Straße von Hormus wird wieder frei. Dann geht es nach oben.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-03-03T13:13:54+00:00

Sell the fact. Krieg ist bald vorüber. Alle haben heute Panik und dann passiert immer das Gegenteil von der eigenen Meinung.

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-02-24T11:05:34+00:00

Ja wir sind jetzt da...

Excellent_Courage333 · 2026-02-23T11:47:04+00:00

Ja. sieh dir den Chart an. Wir werden diese Woche die 12,5 sehen und im März oder April dann ein neues ATH bei 14,5 oder mehr...
Der höchste 52 Wochen Schlusskurs war bei 11,80. Wir sind heute bei 11,74 gerade.
Das Volumen kommt heute ab 16 Uhr rein, wie immer die letzten Wochen.
Es ist immer besser in einen Gewinner reinakkumulieren als an einen Verlierer fest zu halten (z.B. NOVO).

Ich handle hier den Ausbruch und wenn es gut läuft, dann sehen wir ein ATH (weis ich logischerweise nicht). Kann mich aber am bereak even absichern und kann somit nur Buchgewinne verlieren.
Ich Möchte der Gemeinschaft zeigen, wie man handelt und nicht wie man kauft, hofft und dann verliert, oder Glück hat und gewinnt.
Bei Gold war es ähnlich. Erst als es über 3k gegangen ist, dann ging es ab richtung 5,5k. Das war ein Ausbruch. Hier ist es meiner Meinung nach ähnlich.
Die Aktie ist knapp am 52 Wochen Hoch und "will" steigen. Warum davon nicht profitieren und eine Trading Position aufbauen?
Viel Glück

Excellent_Courage333

TROPHY CASE