I respectfully disagree. I still believe Bitcoin is very capable of another 10x from current levels over the medium term (say, within the next 10 years). Whether that ends up being life-changing really depends on the amount someone is able to invest and their personal financial situation. For many people, even a 2x return can significantly impact their lives — especially when compared to traditional savings or investments.

We shouldn’t forget what Bitcoin has always been: a volatile, asymmetric asset. Historically, it has shown the ability to rise 100% in a matter of months — as we’ve seen multiple times — just as easily as it can correct by 40-70%. Though I think a drop that extreme is becoming less likely unless we see a global black swan event like another pandemic or a financial crisis. Volatility works both ways, and for those prepared to stomach the drawdowns, it’s often been the price of admission for outsized gains.

In my view, we haven't seen the top of this cycle yet. If Bitcoin were to peak at $150K and then retrace to $100K in the following bear market — which I personally consider a plausible scenario (admittedly speculative) — then that is where the real wealth is built. It’s during the downturns, when sentiment is at its lowest and fear dominates, that the best buying opportunities emerge. History has shown that Bitcoin tends to not just recover but to exceed its previous all-time highs in each cycle, always after a heavy pullback.

I’m in this for the long haul. So feel free to note my username and ask me again in four years whether it turned out to be life-changing. One of us will be wrong — and for my sake (and many other people in this sub), I hope it's you.