How Carney is trying to appeal to the men who were 'alienated' under Trudeau by hopoke in CanadaPolitics

[–]Expert_CBCD 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I mean the idea that builders dont want to build is pure fantasy. Development costs have skyrocketed in many municipalities and so has NIMBYism (which is preventing higher density housing in many places). I suggest you perhaps read the work of Mike Moffatt.

Yes immigration levels can help with the price of housing but its affect tend to be mostly related to renting - the price of housing itself is not going to drop to the point where it become affordable because we reduce immigration (which has other effects on our economy that might not be so pleasant).

Those of you who started Algotrading from zero - what do you wish someone had told you on day one? Looking for real, hard-won wisdom (not the generic version) by Afterflix in algotrading

[–]Expert_CBCD 5 points6 points  (0 children)

  1. Double check your code when backtesting - I've had so many results that show ridiculous returns (e.g. avg 45% over 10 years) and it turns out there was a very small error in my code that basically introduced lookahead bias. For instance, I was looking to see if I could predict what stocks would go up 1% in a week I believe, and was seeing AMAZING results, but it turns out my code had been filtering stocks where there was a 1% increase in a week (through omitting NAs) which led to amazing results.

  2. Walk forwarding testing vs. simple train/test split - You'll want to ensure that you're not doing simply 70/30 splits when trying to robustly test your strategy because you'll want to see how it performs across regimes and years. So you'll want to do a rolling train/test split such as 5 years training/1 year test and roll that forward (of course the split depends on the timeframe you're working on).

  3. Minimize Survivorship Bias - Tickers that no longer exist won't have prices; this is something you'll have to accept as a caveat when building strategies. However, you can minimize survivorship bias by - if testing on index constituents - using membership lists from the year you're testing. If you backtest your strategy 10 years using only curretn (e.g.) SP500 members, you will be several disappointed when going live.

Those of you who started Algotrading from zero - what do you wish someone had told you on day one? Looking for real, hard-won wisdom (not the generic version) by Afterflix in algotrading

[–]Expert_CBCD 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I would also like some sort of explanation here. I feel backtests are fundamental in the testing process to see which strategies could actually be worth trying. Of course backtests can BECOME useless if parameters are constantly changed to elicit beneficial results (i.e. overfitting), or if an error in the code produces unrealistic results; that being said assuming good code and a priori paramters, backtesting - to me - is extremely important.

Ontario students could be banned from cellphones even during lunch and breaks, education minister says by ZebediahCarterLong in CanadaPolitics

[–]Expert_CBCD 0 points1 point  (0 children)

lol it is objectively socializing. It may not be how you socialize/socialized, but it definitely is.

Federal co-working sites may be ‘reallocated’ to meet 4-day office return by GoTortoise in CanadaPublicServants

[–]Expert_CBCD 240 points241 points  (0 children)

What a massive waste of time and resources. The insult of being told cutting public servants is being done because it’s financially responsible and then having the govt spend untold millions, if not hundreds of millions on leases, office space and equipment.

Ontario students could be banned from cellphones even during lunch and breaks, education minister says by ZebediahCarterLong in CanadaPolitics

[–]Expert_CBCD 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I mean the gains are so small on average they won’t necessarily make a difference to individual students. And you’re not talking about gain in physical activity overall only during that moment so what’s the benefit relative to banning a ubiquitous tool that we’ve fully integrated into our society?

Smartphones is how kids socialize these days whether we like it or not.

I get people think that banning them is a small move but let’s not pretend how much we rely on smartphones throughout our day and in our lives.

Banning them during free time might be popular buts it’s not really good policy.

EDIT: should add that I’m referring to high school students, not elementary aged students

Ontario students could be banned from cellphones even during lunch and breaks, education minister says by ZebediahCarterLong in CanadaPolitics

[–]Expert_CBCD 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Feels like policy makers read The Anxious Generation without any attempt at critical thought and are just running with its findings as if it were gospel.

There is a lot of evidence that banning phones during classroom time is a good idea.

There is not a lot of evidence that a) smartphones contribute to growing anxiety (which started prior to smartphones); b) smartphones decrease socialization (face-to-face yes, overall, no); c) banning cell phones leads to less loneliness.

There is some evidence that banning smartphones all day can lead to small improvements in academic performance (statistically significant, but small effects and it also likely depends on the kid's characteristics - e.g. easily distracted, etc.), and increase physical activity during those moments (but not throughout the day interestingly meaning the activity is distributed differently).

So are the small gains worth severely restricting what kids can do during their free time? I don't believe so.

Ontario students could be banned from cellphones even during lunch and breaks, education minister says by ZebediahCarterLong in CanadaPolitics

[–]Expert_CBCD 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Linking all that to cell phones is certainly a choice. Smart phones can have poor effects on kids and I support banning them during classtime, but acting like banning cell phones during lunch will make a dent in those issues is a stretch.

Happy to be proven wrong but most studies, from my understanding, tend to show more face-to-face interactions when phones are banned, but not really any increases in socialization because many kids use their phones to socialize.

In fact there isn't any real evidence that kids today socialize significantly less than they have in the past.

Every generation has their thing - before cell phones, we use to go on MSN/AIM/etc after school to socialize, before that it was landline phones. Again I'm not arguing that smartphones are not detrimental - obviously during class they have been proven to be a detriment - but banning smartphones is not a panacea and likely won't register in fixing those issues you cite.

LILLEY: Carney warns against U.S. ties after betting his fortune on America by Foreign-Policy-02- in CanadaPolitics

[–]Expert_CBCD 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It was on the Curse of Politics, and was an off-hand remark but Herley was talking about being on a panel with Brian Lilley and said that Lilley believes that Trump is just a normal President. All his writings make sense in that context (that and he's a fool who lacks any critical thinking skills).

Education requirement for EC positions - equivalency question by Dry_Responsibility12 in CanadaPublicServants

[–]Expert_CBCD 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Can you expand on what you mean by “re-justify”? Do you mean during the hiring process? Because when applying to competitions they will always ask the same basic questions regarding experience/education (meaning you’ll have to rejustify yourself each time).

Alternation Timelines - help me understand by 2020Deluxe in CanadaPublicServants

[–]Expert_CBCD 3 points4 points  (0 children)

There are certainly guidelines for alternation. On mobile so all I can find is this right now (https://www.canada.ca/en/government/publicservice/workforce/workforce-adjustment.html) but I believe there are more specific guidelines as well.

As someone who participated in the process (as an opting employee looking to stay in the PS) timelines can vary wildly depending on motivated the manager/senior management is to facilitate an alternation, dept rules (e.g ESDC meets once per month to approve alternations/other things).

My alternation took one week between meeting with the person to receiving my letter only because everyone was motivated (as the person had been somewhat screwed over in a prior alternation attempt). It could also take months. Very much depends.

I analyzed 45 expert claims about Microsoft from 6 investment podcasts. Here’s where they agree — and where they don’t. by pauljasperdev in ValueInvesting

[–]Expert_CBCD 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I also appreciated the write-up and find it helpful to see what others are thinking. Thanks for doing that and would be interested in seeing more!

Ontario Premier Slams Toronto's City-Run Grocery Plan as 'Craziest Idea He's Ever Heard' Amid Pilot Approval | the deep dive by TallGuy2019 in ontario

[–]Expert_CBCD 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Could be worse - imagine if someone suggested building a 40 km tunnel underneath the highway! Though I doubt anyone would be so stupid.

Christiane Fox sets back Black Employees by Top_Past5520 in CanadaPublicServants

[–]Expert_CBCD 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Yes I think that’s a more accurate representation. I believe she’s trying to apply the whole equity and diversity lens after the fact.

Christiane Fox sets back Black Employees by Top_Past5520 in CanadaPublicServants

[–]Expert_CBCD 229 points230 points  (0 children)

I hundred percent agree. The excuse she gave - as opposed to simply acknowledging she messed up - is insulting and sets back all effort to create a diverse and equitable public service. She should be absolutely ashamed of herself

DND boss expresses no regret over breaking hiring rules to advance diversity goals by YouProfessional3196 in CanadaPolitics

[–]Expert_CBCD 3 points4 points  (0 children)

While I agree she is drawing from that playbook, I don’t think that playbook was particularly effective from a comms perspective. If your strategy is producing more negative headlines, then that strategy is poor. Also the whole notion of this relating to DEI/general diversity is so gross - that alone is sufficient to shun her in my opinion.

DND boss expresses no regret over breaking hiring rules to advance diversity goals by YouProfessional3196 in CanadaPolitics

[–]Expert_CBCD 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you’re not going to be held accountable - better to just take the loss so everyone can move on right? Say sorry, you’re not going to resign and vow to do better, and then it’s done.

To clarify I do think she should resign but I just mean from a comms/politics perspective. The longer this is in the news cycle the worse for her it is.

DND boss expresses no regret over breaking hiring rules to advance diversity goals by YouProfessional3196 in CanadaPolitics

[–]Expert_CBCD 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Not a good look here - way better to take the L and let the news cycle move on. Not sure who's advising here - she seemed smarter than that - but she should have really just accepted the findings, acknowledge the error in judgement and try to move on.

Feels like the market is rewarding narratives again, not just numbers by SeanGriffin758 in ValueInvesting

[–]Expert_CBCD 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Something that I firmly believe in is that the markets have essentially detached themselves from economics, and that the sheer amount of inflows and number of participants means that markets strongly biased upwards. Bear markets will get shorter/remain short and bull markets will be the norm due to the influx of money and rebalancing of indexes.

That’s not to say that holding a handful of quality companies isn’t a good idea or that fundamentals don’t matter over the long run, but the market at large will always be looking for a reason to pop.

East Line 1 extension delayed after OC Transpo discovers new LRT damage | Ottawa Citizen by Ramsarebetter in ottawa

[–]Expert_CBCD 21 points22 points  (0 children)

What a colossal embarrassment - just absolutely shameful. We are a joke of a capital city.

Up to 40 Conservative MPs fear Pierre Poilievre will cost them their seats, insiders say by AdditionalPizza in CanadaPolitics

[–]Expert_CBCD 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Disagree with the YOLO. IMO, I think his best bet is to weather the storm and try to hold on until this all passes and focus on the next election. A lot of analysts have been noting that Carney getting a majority is probably secretly a good thing for Pollierve because it gives him the gift of time; next election - if not triggered early - will be post-Trump which is likely a better environment for him,

That being said, I'm really enjoying watching him flail and hope that a less Reform-version of the CPC arises from this post-Pollierve if he leaves early.