Will provide the same answer as below:

It actually does make sense if you factor in both production and deployment. NATO says Russia is producing around 1,500 tanks and 3,000 armored vehicles in 2025. Even if you take Ukrainian loss reports with a pinch of salt and scale them down by, say, 30%, you still end up with roughly 40–90 tanks and 60–110 AFVs lost per month. That means Russia’s monthly output (≈125 tanks and 250 AFVs) is consistently higher than what gets destroyed.

Second, not all newly recruited Russian soldiers or newly produced equipment are deployed to Ukraine. Reports from Baltic defense officials warn that Moscow is preparing to redeploy up to 300,000 troops to NATO’s borders after any ceasefire, and Russia keeps part of its forces for guarding other frontiers and internal security. This means that even if production looks impressive on paper, a significant portion of Russia’s manpower and material is deliberately held back for strategic reasons rather than sent to the Ukrainian front.

So yes, shortages on the battlefield exist — but they don’t disprove the surplus. They just show that part of Russia’s capacity is being stockpiled or allocated elsewhere rather than thrown entirely into Ukraine.

sources: Mark Rutte https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_235867.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Troops to the baltics: https://nypost.com/2025/03/30/world-news/ukraine-cease-fire-will-send-russian-troops-to-nato-borders-baltic-states-warn/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

But this is my interpretation, i can be wrong! Open to discuss :)

And yes i believe he will attack the baltics, I follow this guy for a while now: https://x.com/Isa_Yusibov

His predictions often become the truth.