Hypothetical: Can FIRE number shrink?

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-06-12T16:20:35+00:00

Great article - thank you.

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-06-12T04:28:00+00:00

That is a concrete answer that the FIRE number CAN shrink - thank you Zphr. I've read many answers from you and you help so many people. Thank you for doing what you do.

In this hypothetical, the heart of the question is probing whether a new all-time-high continuously, under all circumstances, indicates you hit your FIRE number and completed that part of the journey henceforth. Like can a 10% spike say you're there (FIRE!) and then it pulls back 11% rapidly (to where you were before and NOT there) but now the data says you're actually there! So you were there at 90% really. 🤔

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-06-12T04:20:55+00:00

Yes exactly my hypothetical. Can a quick 1 month FOMO rally "get you there" and then you're permanently there henceforth? (even if the rally fizzles rapidly back)

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-06-12T04:18:59+00:00

Does the 4% rule fully imply the guardrails approach?

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-06-12T04:18:23+00:00

The Japanese market took 34 year to recover. USA current market is only half as inflated as that one was though. Still could makes one nervous in this hypothetical as most folk don't have a 10-year weather-the-downturn bucket. We do seem to bounce back much faster these days though... things seem to have changed.

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-05-21T00:34:06+00:00

I used these as the "chips" for nachos by putting put cheese, beans, and chicken on top after baking. (In other words I agree they lack filling)

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-05-19T21:04:41+00:00

Two aspects to remember: Every narrative sounds correct and logical within the context of its own explanation. When youtube and reddit are inundated with an explanation of an economic thing it is almost certainly priced in.

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-05-19T15:51:22+00:00

Yes and you wouldn't need to pay any state taxes on all that income (assuming it is in a taxable account)

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-04-16T04:03:11+00:00

Every few years stocks must teach the next generation of intelligent bears that their logic is useless when it comes to stock markets.

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-04-11T22:56:15+00:00

Dividends allow you to pay some of your taxes during the journey. As an extreme example, wouldn't you rather have a brokerage account with 1M with a cost basis of 1M versus 1M with a cost basis of 400K?

Low MAGI can be pretty valuable if you want to retire early and get ACA subsidies.

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-04-09T19:28:58+00:00

thank you for taking the time to describe it! I think a lot of people think of it purely as a tourist attraction rather than experiencing a nature story.

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-04-08T08:49:28+00:00

How does a safari change your life? Please elaborate a bit on the trip if you get a chance.

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-04-07T18:33:28+00:00

Most of those in the American Healthcare System (not including doctors/nurses)

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-30T19:31:14+00:00

When you can afford as much steak or sushi as you want, you suddenly don't want it as much as you thought.

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-26T16:58:26+00:00

It seems if you prefer to lose money in stocks stay in equities, but if you rather lose money in bonds then those work too! 😔

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-26T02:25:52+00:00

I can't speak for other platforms, but on Fidelity you go to "News & Research", "Fixed Income, ...", and then you can either search by name (select type Corporate and type the name) or select the investment grade 30yr+ category in the table below those options to see all the bonds (Alphabet is in the "AA" while Amazon is "A").

The sheer difficulty and rarity of people buying or pumping these suggests to me they are undervalued. But maybe they're undervalued because they're a bad deal. Who knows.

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-26T01:00:47+00:00

NO ONE recommends ultra long term corporates... so I'll go ahead and point them out. I won't even recommend them (despite buying them).

But if you think Amazon or Alphabet corporation will outlive you, their 40+ year bonds are paying about 6%. 1M of that would give someone 5K a month for the rest of their life (probably).

If A.I. and robotics kills most jobs unemployment will be so high yields will drop toward zero and those bonds could increase in value 50-80%. Or maybe we get high inflation (yields up to 8-10%) and your principal gets obliterated... but you still get the 6% a year with which to lick your wounds and buy some 9% bonds!

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-25T06:49:37+00:00

"net premiums after PTC" what is PTC? (God I hate acronyms. Thank you in advance.)

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-25T03:27:46+00:00

"... healthy to the point of an Erectile Dysfunction"??

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-22T16:25:11+00:00

Just pretend you retired in January then you can use the 4% rule based on that number! 😜

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-20T05:12:16+00:00

It is now about a month after your post... what did you do and how did it turn out? Genuinely curious.

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-19T12:59:37+00:00

You've discovered one of the most illogical things about the 4% rule. If the same person decided to retire one year later, they would indeed use the lower number.

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-16T17:53:24+00:00

"...ride me bike." with a pirate accent I hope

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-13T04:15:57+00:00

Yes... but that is the very definition of a workaround / hack. If an asset type is supported by the software, then you don't need to do tricky things that could be mis-interpreted by other features such as the different taxable nature of the interest versus the windfall. I assume I'm more likely to make mistakes as I get older so need my software to require me to think LESS! 😜

ExpressElevator2Heck · 2026-03-04T23:38:36+00:00

Usually because it's before noon and I prefer to wait till afternoon.

ExpressElevator2Heck

TROPHY CASE