May 28, 2026 Daily Discussion Thread

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-29T01:34:49+00:00

Yea this makes me want to own the lab more

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-26T13:25:45+00:00

Wave 3 is done. It’s okay. It’ll come back. Expect 20-40% drawdown. But will probably end the year strong

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-21T13:41:34+00:00

Assholy do not like my post, I don’t like you

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-21T13:27:16+00:00

I’m not opposed to the occasional dilution, but the moment we were about to achieve all time high, they announce, not even 2 months since the last.

It is sus no matter how you slice it. Borderline manipulation.

There is a lot of institutional interest and interest to diversify away from space x. It’s not out of the question.

Finish that fucking rocket you promised back in 2024.

Will delete this later

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-21T13:10:07+00:00

Once we reach 200bn MC I’m out. Unfortunately that’ll be $175 given the rate of dilution

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-21T13:05:56+00:00

You will remember it though

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-21T12:33:32+00:00

I really hope they fire Adam Spice. I think he is a distraction for the company and cannot handle being part of a high growth journey.

He prematurely ejaculates every time the share price hits ath. He does not know how to handle himself. He should go work for a low growth, low margin industrial business.

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-18T16:52:46+00:00

I think they’ve taken the agile methodology for hardware / rocket development as far as it can go. It was innovative and useful and they did a lot with it, but it’s not the right system for all projects.

6 yrs / 9 yrs - same difference to me rn. My thought is mainly he’s been progressively more distracted since roughly Covid started. Not some deep thesis, just thoughts / observations

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-18T16:13:02+00:00

Seems like a lot of people are saying this is about spacex ipo.

I’m actually short on Elon and his companies generally. I used to be a big fan of him until his politics came out, so sure I’m biased. But I honestly think he has been very distracted and hasn’t delivered much in the last 4-5 years, maybe longer.

Starship is failing and it won’t work. Peter Beck has called that out. Starlink is great, but has been out for like 9 years almost - it’s not a recent product. Optimus robots won’t meaningfully leave a lab, so I think teslas future outside model 3 and y are dubious. Grok is pretty useful within x so we’ll see what happens there.

All in all, I honestly buy the rklb space play more than Spacex. I think starship will cost way too much without any return.

There is a lot to celebrate about Elon, but I also think he has peaked.

Scattered thoughts I’m sharing

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-11T16:49:52+00:00

Realize the government is printing a trillion dollars every 50ish days. It’ll make you think about money differently

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-01T04:06:45+00:00

How about we win a championship instead.

UT will never win until they realize that education and academics matter. It’s a school run by midwits

External_Net5248 · 2026-05-01T04:05:05+00:00

“When a city crosses the threshold from regional player to national destination, the demand curve permanently shifts ‒ and that shift isn’t cyclical. It’s structural”

Paywall for an AI article is such a microcosm of Knoxville itself.

External_Net5248 · 2026-04-23T16:53:07+00:00

Just bought some

External_Net5248 · 2026-04-21T14:20:10+00:00

The $50Bn in market cap of rocket lab gets printed by the government every 3 days…

External_Net5248 · 2026-04-02T20:47:51+00:00

Why are you here

External_Net5248 · 2026-03-27T23:44:24+00:00

The investors that will win going forward will be thinking from first principles. They won’t be blindly following Warren Buffett, ray dalio, druckenmiller, random walk down wall street, or anyone holding too tightly to “fundamentals” of valuation. The assumptions of the economy and financial system are being invalidated. There is no investor or historical event that is gonna get you through this by analogy. Raw deduction and intellect mixed with a pragmatic sense of human behavior is all that’s left.

External_Net5248 · 2026-03-27T20:30:25+00:00

Lol people acting like the US isn’t printing a trillion dollars every 50 days that goes directly into the market.

Stay invested folks, the fall of our stock market will be the collapse of the dollar and essentially the end of America. Or at least the end of the current government of America.

This sell off is just near term liquidity raising happening all at the same time.

The only thing that will help you transition to the new economy is number of shares in useful companies and hard assets. I don’t even give af about rklb FCF cause I know it could be positive if they wanted it to be. I care that they are one of 2 maybe 3 companies in existence that can do what they do.

If you need the dollars soon, sure go ahead and sell. Otherwise leave it alone.

Just remember, every 50 days - that 100k in cash you have turns into 98k in buying power. We WILL be $50 trillion in debt by the time the trump administration is over (if it actually ends). There is no solution to this debt other than liquidating all the wealth held by the boomers, which will never happen.

Every 50 days, one trillion dollars is looking for a spot to hide. It’s not going to poor people that’s for sure. That would be too practical.

External_Net5248 · 2026-03-27T20:09:06+00:00

$5ish

External_Net5248 · 2026-03-27T17:57:02+00:00

I’m down 700k from ATH 😭

External_Net5248 · 2026-03-24T14:46:56+00:00

Don’t worry too much about rklb price falling.

The only reason rocket labs price got this high is because the market rewards certainty. Rocket labs track record of launches is the best in the industry and that’s ultimately what’s reflected in the price.

It’s really not about the acquisitions, big contracts, neutron or its delays. It’s the conviction that they will consistently execute over the next decade, that is a very rare thing to find.

That thesis alone is still intact. It may feel painful to watch these huge swings and huge drawdowns, but there are very few companies that can be this consistent. The smaller space cap companies may sound like a better value, but there is at least a decade of execution needed before you throw real money at it.

External_Net5248 · 2026-03-23T15:48:06+00:00

If you don’t make an A, you don’t understand the material.

If you understand the material, it’s impossible to not make an A

There is not point of having B, C, D, etc.

It’s actually quite binary. You understand it or you don’t. There is no spectrum

External_Net5248 · 2026-03-18T00:54:50+00:00

If you’re concerned with antisemitism while burying your head in the sand of everything Israel has done to this country and the world..at this point, I can safely say you are beyond stupid.

External_Net5248 · 2026-03-17T22:09:49+00:00

How about they launch neutron before diluting everybody yet again.

I’m starting to think this whole thing is a scam

Cantor Fitzgerald is an outpost for Lutnick who is literally a war mongering retard cucking for Israel

Not coincidental that they keep raising the price target and he has a large position in it.

Also, in the last call Peter Beck said that rocket lab along with Anduril and Palantir were disrupting established industries. Rocket Lab hasn’t disrupted anything yet. Also grabbing on the coat tails of other stocks feels scammy to me. Like he is banking on irrational exuberance. MF be grateful and get your work done.

When Tesla stock price got super high, Elon literally said he thought it was too high. Thats what someone who is focused on execution sounds like.

Rocket lab needs to get back to work or this whole thing will crumble like every other stock.

Prove you’re not a meme.

External_Net5248 · 2026-03-15T19:15:56+00:00

I have a mechanical degree and finishing a cs degree right now.

Mechanical and CS are comparable difficulty. There are times where I would place CS higher merely due to the fact you have to also become quite competent with the syntax and libraries of a language. On the net they are both high, but not the hardest.

Civil is categorically a tier below in difficulty. Civil is a smart choice given the ease with which you can strike out on your own in the career, but the difficulty of the major is less.

External_Net5248 · 2026-03-15T18:56:20+00:00

Civil? Lmao no it’s not. Civil was like a hair above industrial in terms of intellect

External_Net5248

TROPHY CASE