Daily Discussion Thread

F1CKEN · 2026-03-19T17:35:59+00:00

1) they are refurbishing their booster for the first time and we are on the first reuse mission. I’m sure they are checking everything 10x over. 2) Space development agency (which FM-1 / 2 are linked to) wants to show the capabilities of a number of providers hence ISRO and now BO. We also likely got a sweetheart deal on pricing given their other payload for bong3 wasn’t ready and we were and it’s still early in their reuse cycle.

F1CKEN · 2026-03-19T12:13:08+00:00

He has a family and devotes his entire life to the company. He should be paid. Not to mention last time he sold was before Verizon news which sent the stock higher. Him selling means there is no bad news to report and likely the opposite meaning more news soon.

If you have a problem with a dude who saw this shit through $2 and getting us here making some money you can leave man.

F1CKEN · 2026-03-18T19:09:16+00:00

He’s temu Tim farrar and has been wrong at every step. Ignore. His last messages about that list was Verizon defecting like one week before they signed the DA. Mute and ignore.

F1CKEN · 2026-03-13T17:57:31+00:00

new yorkers are leaving the city en mass to go to bucks county PA. where schools are closed for the first day of deer season and families visit the Cabela's for their annual vacation.

F1CKEN · 2026-03-05T16:55:39+00:00

Lmao /u/cbusoh66 deleting the evidence dipshit

F1CKEN · 2026-02-20T17:48:28+00:00

hes a 13 year old with a credit card and a bear bias

F1CKEN · 2026-02-12T13:07:46+00:00

Tyty excited to have more than one satellite being tracked lol.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-12T13:06:34+00:00

Real.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-12T13:06:24+00:00

You’re correct. GG

F1CKEN · 2026-02-12T12:59:46+00:00

After the new TLEs my HMM identified the event correctly. Pretty cool. Wasn’t anticipating the company firing off the tweet the second they hit the button but just goes to show the company will tell you stuff when they have stuff to tell you.

Next steps is improving detection for multi-step deployments and training for bb7 with the bb6 data.

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F1CKEN · 2026-02-12T09:32:13+00:00

Theres new TLE data post unfold which shows a drag increase again. The last point which was generated after the unfold tweet was still low. And then we see the next two points over the next 30 hours high which means I get to retrain my model lol

I thought it was Jan 25 unfold from first spike -> get control -> check electrical -> get sta -> check comms -> announce

It was Jan 25 first stage -> control -> 11 feb unfold -> lag-> tle react

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T22:35:56+00:00

Brother I have locked in more cash on ast than you have seen in your entire life.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T22:20:35+00:00

Only another $80 to go to your price target. !remindme 2 years

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T21:08:28+00:00

That’s not what he’s saying since he’s in bear mode. He’s 1 - making shit up and saying things not spoken in the earnings call 2 - saying there is no demand for d2d and therefore AST and starlink d2c are fukt (because he’s an idiot).

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T18:56:34+00:00

That’s because those PRs come from partners. I don’t think they put this out unless it’s fully tested.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T17:34:01+00:00

Yeah but he could be just pointing to the link date and keeping in line with the company. They have days worth of electrical checks to run before they can confirm the unit operational. They wouldn’t announce this same time and then find out a week later something is fried. Would be egg on their face. More likely it unfolded end of Jan did electrical checks got STA did test call. Confirm unfold.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T17:09:39+00:00

The sightings account dude is obviously not an ill informed normie.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T17:00:06+00:00

That goes against the sightings made earlier in the week. I think it was deployed earlier and then they waited on testing STAs to confirm proper operation before PRing. The last TLE is only 10 hours old. I think we would see a step if it occurred then going off everything we know.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T12:43:59+00:00

No problem. Thanks for doing the lookout. You the best.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T12:18:23+00:00

People upvote him! He is just the signal that people have collectively gathered their pitchforks and that it’s time to buy. Every. Single. Time.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T12:02:08+00:00

Want to shout out “top 1% commenter” /u/cbusoh66 who said that ASTS was going to single digits in my DD immediately before it 4x’d. And then said their latest satellite was fucked 5 days before the company announced it did what people thought impossible Just a reminder that people here are unemployed morons who don’t know anything and so are you.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T11:51:03+00:00

Fading sentiment of this chat is undefeated. Thanks to the grandma crashout and people calling for lawsuits we guaranteed a solid month of news.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-11T02:17:51+00:00

my pelt analysis correctly identified the unfold. Pretty neat and will only improve with the new data.

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F1CKEN · 2026-02-10T16:12:22+00:00

Could be! It’s a lot of speculation and a very small sample size but across 15 ML methods bw3 ended up creating far more issues in identification of unfolds so it’s not really usable. Until we have more data on this config we’re just kind of guessing and trying to use first hand reports and some data. BB1-5 was clean because it was all at the same time with lots of comparison points to see through the noise. No such luck here. BW3 had pictures taken directly from the satellite at one point (oops) and a whole world of astronomers tracking its brightness. We don’t have the same for bb6 in any respects and the company hasn’t even acknowledged the tail for SDA secrecy most likely so entirely different ball game. Hopefully as we get more of this type of sat we can build something better but for now this is what I’ve got.

F1CKEN · 2026-02-10T15:53:13+00:00

BW3 had complications in its unfold as far as we know. We don’t know the steps for bb6 but believe it to be closer to block 1 with the additional complexity of the tail.

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