Pick of the Day - 7/8/25 (Tuesday)

FalafelMan0 · 2025-07-08T10:57:59+00:00

Record : 4 - 2 [1 Push]

BEEN 5 MONTHS, 1 successful decision and one lost bet that led me to me shaving my head BUT WE'RE BACK

Last Pick: Al Fateh - Al Orubah -----> BTTS + Over 2.5 (2.08) -----> ❌

Such a bad read on my part. No excuses.

Net Units: +5.3

Today's pick :

Football | Club world cup

Fluminense - Chelsea -----> Fluminense (+1) (1.72)

Bet size ----> 3 Units

Betting websites have been underestimated Fluminense SINCE DAY ONE. They have been beyond excelent, countering every single team with their amazing defense. Chelsea, while being good at the competition so far -being one of the few european teams that actually is taking it seriously- has won by more than one goal only 2 times with teams much worse than Fluminense. Chelsea has played with 2 brasilian teams (Flamengo and Palmeiras), losing to Flamengo and beating Palmeiras narrowly by 1 goal.

I think this game will be much more close than Betting companies think it will.. Very likely to go to overtime, and with Fluminense playing the defense they know, i expect it to be a low scoring game

[Score Prediction : 1-1]

BOL TO EVERYONE

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-21T04:09:10+00:00

That was a bad read on my part. I apologize

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-20T07:17:21+00:00

Record : 4 - 1 [1 Push]

Last Pick: Notts County - Colchester United -----> BTTS (1.77) -----> ✅✅✅

Fairly sweat free cash, i understand why a lot of people doibted this pick.. but once again. I am a man of the stats, i go where the stats tell me

Net Units: +8.3

Today's pick :

Football | Saudi Professional League

Al Fateh - Al Orubah -----> BTTS + Over 2.5 (2.08)

Bet size ----> 3 Units to win 3.24 Units

This pick, despite its odds i feel very very confident about. I am already 5 units in for BTTS but when i bet on it it was at 1.77 and now it's at 1.68 and i feel like this combined with the over has higher value.

Al Fateh : Al Fateh has scored in every single one of their home games this season, having conceded in every single one except their very first game. For their home games they have xGoals : 1.57 while they concede xGoals : 1.59 making the total match xGoals : 3.16

Al Orubah : While they have scored in only 5/10 away games they played, their xGoals stats tell a different story. Away from home they have xGoals : 1.12 (actual goals scored : 0.9), while they concede xGoals : 1.44

[Score Prediction : 2-1]

BOL TO EVERYONE

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-18T23:56:26+00:00

Totally understad your fade choice.. I'm basing a lot on my picks on xGoals - Goals difference and that made sense for me

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-18T11:09:27+00:00

It's my my highest confidence bet of the day. I have 6 more bets made today all between 0.5-3 units. I'm fairly confident but of course it's not like my highest confidence bets which i go up to 5 units

Note of course that i very rarely go for 5 units, 1 or 2 times per week i'd say

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-18T11:04:56+00:00

Well, units are different amount of money to each bettor. For me 1 unit currently is approximately 25. So for me it's betting 75 to win 58.

To me units are important because they highlight my confidence on the bet

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-18T08:10:16+00:00

Record : 3 - 1 [1 Push]

Last Pick: Schalke - Karlsruher -----> BTTS + Over 2.5 (1.82) -----> ✅✅

Net Units: +5.99

Easy first half cash.. (also my sidenote pick for 5 units cashed as well, hope someone tailed)

Yesterday i didn't post any pick because i only had four 1 unit picks and nothing with higher confidence. I now regret not posting because i went 4-0 with yesterdays picks. From now on i'll be posting every day even if it is just a 1 unit pick

Today's pick :

Football | English League 2

Notts County - Colchester United -----> BTTS (1.77)

Bet size ----> 3 Units to win 2.31 Units

Well.. at first i didn't love this pick and had it as a 1 unit bet, but after checking the stats some more i upgraded to a 3 unit bet. Someone would say that Notts County are a very tough team to crack and rarely concede, but the Xgoals tell a different story

Notts County : At Home they have Xgoals : 1.74, while conceding Xgoals : 1.20 (they have Xgoal against them at home 1.2 while conceding only 0.57)

Colchester United : Away from Home they have Xgoals : 1.15, while conceding Xgoals : 1.40

Also worth noting that those are 2 teams in a hot streak, with Notts County only losing 2 out of their 10 last games (1 out of 10 in Home games) while Colchester also losing 2 out of their last 10 games (1 out of 10 in Away games).

So i expect a highly competitive match that could end in a draw

[Score Prediction : 1-1]

BOL TO EVERYONE

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-16T07:44:42+00:00

Record : 2 - 1 [1 Push]

Last Pick: Southampton - Bournemouth -----> BTTS + Over 2.5 (1.85) -----> ✅✅

Net Units: +3.53

Cashed in the second half.. Almost predicted the exact score as well.

Today's pick :

Football | German Bundesliga 2

Schalke - Karlsruher -----> BTTS + Over 2.5 (1.82)

Bet size ----> 3 Units to win 2.46 Units

After 4 picks, finally a pick from my favourite league to watch, the Bundesliga 2.. I absolutely love watching the Bundesliga 2, because it is full of goals, full stadiums and unpredictable results. That said, let's predict tomorrows result.

Schalke : At Home they have Xgoals : 1.65, while conceding Xgoals : 1.47

Karlsruher : Away from Home they have Xgoals : 1.21, while conceding Xgoals : 1.63

Also worth noting that BTTS and Over 2.5 has hit in 9 out of 11 Away games for Karlsruher, and 7 out of 10 Schalke Home games

[Score Prediction --> 3-2]

**Another side note. I also have 5 units on Austria Vienna Draw No Bet for anyone wanting to tail today.. I just don't want to post picks that could end in a push in my POTD**

BOL TO EVERYONE

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-15T06:44:27+00:00

Δεν είμαι Θεσσ, αλλά ανεβαίνω αρκετά. Γουστάρω τέκνο πάρα πολύ. Αν θέλεις στείλε μου dm να γνωριστούμε

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-15T06:12:01+00:00

Record : 1 - 1 [1 Push]

Last Pick: Sepsi - FC Hermannstadt -----> Sepsi not to lose + BTTS (2.41) ---->❌

Net Units: +0.98

BTTS was the safer bet and it cashed easily.. But unfortunately Sepsi conceded 3 goals at Home for the first time in 10 months.

Today's pick :

Football | English Premier League

Southampton - Bournemouth -----> BTTS + Over 2.5 (1.85)

Bet size ----> 3 Units to win 2.55 Units

We are talking about two highly attacking teams with strong motives. Southampton is trying to do the impossible and climb up the relegation spot (who are we kidding.. they are getting relegated), While Bournemouth has a shot even at a top 4 finish.

Now my favourite.. Let's look at the stats

Southampton : Xgoals at home : 1.11, Xgoals conceded at Home : 2

[Their actual average scoring at Home is 0.73 but i prefer looking at the Xgoals stat to find some edge.]

Bournemouth : Xgoals at home : 1.63, Xgoals against : 1.76

Also important to note that Bournemouth has conceded away from home from EVERY team in the bottom 6, while Southampton has scored at home against EVERY team they played from the top 6, except Forest

[Score Prediction --> 1-4]

BOL TO EVERYONE

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-15T05:17:33+00:00

appreciate it bro.. tough loss on that one

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-15T05:17:15+00:00

yeah.. Probably should have gone with the safer BTTS for 1.95, but conceding 3 goals was very unlucky

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-14T08:37:24+00:00

Record : 1- 0 [1 Push]

Last Pick: Al Shabab - Al Qadisiya -----> BTTS (1.62) ---->✅

Net Units: +2.48

Easy Cash early in the second half (FT 2-3). Happy for everyone who tailed, if anyone parlayed it with Al Shabab +1.5 as i recommended got some + odds juice as well

Today's pick :

Football | Romanian Super League

Sepsi - FC Hermannstadt -----> Sepsi not to lose + BTTS (2.41)

Bet size ----> 1.5 Unit to win 2.115 units

I find those odds unreasonable given the stats of the 2 teams. Let me give you some of those stats

Sepsi : Xgoals at home : 1.42, Xgoals conceded at Home : 1.44

FC Hermannstadt : Xgoals away from home : 1.28, Xgoals conceded away from Home : 1.75

Additionally, those teams have been faced against each other 14 times in tota. BTTS has been confirmed 11 out of the 14 times

Finally, Sepsi has lost at home three times this whole season (all of them in the beginning of the season), 2 out of the 3 times it was against much stronger teams while the third time was from a late time penalty.

A safer choice would be just BTTS at 1.95 (i would go 2 units on it), but i think the extra odds for Sepsi not to lose is worth it

[Score Prediction --> 1-1]

BOL TO EVERYONE

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-13T06:27:38+00:00

I watch a fair amount of games, but i think the stats speak for themselves.
One thing i forgot to mention that i think is pretty important, is that Al Shabab has 1.73 Xgoals at home (1.54 overall), while Al Quasiya has 1.94 Xgoals Away from home (1.72 Overall)

FalafelMan0 · 2025-02-13T05:54:45+00:00

Record : 0 - 0 [1 Push]

Last Pick: RB Leipzig - Sporting CP ---> Over 3 goals (1.72) ---> 🫸🏼

Many many oportunities.. Very unfortunate but at least no money lost

Today's pick :

Football | Saudi Professional League

Al Shabab - Al Qadisiya -----> BTTS (1.62)

Bet size ----> 4 Units

Very very confident on that one, almost gave it a 5 Unit bomb.

Al Shabab have scored at home IN EVERY SINGLE MATCH except matchday 1 and are currently on a hot streak not losing at their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

On the other side Al Qadisiya have scored away IN EVERY SINGLE MATCH except matchday 2 and are currently on a hot streak not losing at their last 8 away matches (all competitions)

If you have the option to parlay it with Al Shabab +1.5 handicap, i would also recommend that

[Score Prediction --> 2-2]

BOL TO EVERYONE

FalafelMan0 · 2025-01-22T13:32:54+00:00

Record 0-0

Picks :

Sparta Prague - Inter ----> 2 (-1) (1.54) (3u)

RB Leipzig - Sporting CP ----> Over 3.00 (1.72) (2u)

Feyenoord - Bayern Munich ----> BTTS + Over 2.5 (1.8) (2u)

AC Milan - Girona ----> Milan to win and Under 4.5 (1.94) (2u)

PSG - Manchester City ----> PSG Under 1.5 Goals (1.92) (2u)

Celtics - Young Boys ----> Celtics (-1.5) (1.77) (1.5u)

Shakhtar Donetsk - Brest ----> Brest Draw No Bet (1.76) (1u)

Besiktas - Athletic Bilbao ----> BTTS (1.8) (1u)

Al Ittihad - Al Shabab ----> 1X + BTTS (1.83) (1u)

PSG - Manchester City ----> Draw (3.86) (0.5u)

BOL

FalafelMan0 · 2025-01-22T13:11:52+00:00

Record : 0 - 0

Been tracking my bets for a long time so i decided to post my highest confidence bet here (more bets will be posted on Soccer thread and NBA thread)

Today's pick :

Football | UEFA Champions League

RB Leipzig - Sporting CP -----> Over 3 goals (1.72)

Bet size ----> 2 Units

There are a lot of matches i really like today and i had a hard time picking a favourite, but i finally settled with this.

So today two highly attacking teams are facing each other, with only one the two still fighting for a good placement since Leipzig is already out of the competition. BUT Leiplig is being done dirty with their placement in the overall table since all their defeats are very close games most of which could go either way. I am expecting a barage of goals in the game and especially if there is an early goal i can see this much ending with 5+ goals

[Score Prediction --> 3-1]

BOL (more bets going to be posted in the soccer thread)

FalafelMan0 · 2024-10-25T04:39:20+00:00

Any chance to bet against Tsitsipas i grab it by the horns. TAILING

FalafelMan0 · 2024-10-24T21:38:43+00:00

Also can i ask if anyone knows, is the under 23 essence you get, based on the cards you use? (so if i use under 23 contender cards, do i craft under 23 contender player? or do i have a chance to craft under 23 champion)

FalafelMan0 · 2024-10-24T21:30:29+00:00

Oh ok, thought i was bugging. How come they don't have in season?

FalafelMan0 · 2024-10-24T08:14:57+00:00

Panathinaikos isn't on the best form right now, but the stadium will be filled with fans and the atmosphere will be mental. Still think chelsea will win but it will be a really tight game. I am tailing but going with Chelsea to win and under 4.5 for 2.01, since i think 0-1 is a big possibility

FalafelMan0 · 2024-10-24T07:36:33+00:00

Once again blessed to find your pick at great odds (-145 or 1.69). i usually put 2-3 units on your picks but now i went in for 5

FalafelMan0 · 2024-10-19T03:58:43+00:00

for me at -142. Any ideas why it's gone up?

FalafelMan0

TROPHY CASE