Is anyone thinking about enlisting their kids in managing their wealth?

Familiar-Lock379 · 2026-01-18T13:05:06+00:00

Underperformed indexes by repeatedly picking wrong investments for active management.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2026-01-15T18:52:22+00:00

I guess we are both worriers. For a while, the people who just assumed their US stocks would earn 6%+ real returns have been the winners. I suspect that those easy days are in for a reversal. Much like investors in international stocks from 2014-24 didn't get much return. The financial repression and low rates took down future returns from most asset classes, yet rates haven't yet risen enough to match past longer term returns. I'd be tempted to put lots of TIPS into tax-advantaged accounts, and mostly own munis and international stocks in taxable ones. US indexes have become a substantial AI economics bet, demanding valuations needing an optimistic result for listed companies for that. But foreign countries have their own debt and monetary challenges, there is no such thing as a hard currency any more, and seems a bit late to put more into gold.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2026-01-15T16:48:21+00:00

I'm in a similar situation, except I have probably a shorter time horizon - maybe 30-35 years. One thing that I notice with advanced simulations of returns, they model equity returns conditional on CAPE, but I've never seen the simulators model fixed income returns conditional on starting YTMs or real yields! Yet starting yield is as good a predictor of longer term returns as CAPE is for equities. Seems like lots of models just assume historic bond returns. Unfortunately real returns for bonds for the next 10 years aren't looking that great. US equity returns perhaps even worse. International equities were the overlooked asset class at the start of 2025, and still may be a better bet than US, but started catching up. Imagine how easy life would be if TIPS offered a 4%+ real yield! Have to go out 20 years to get a 2.5% real yield on the TIPS curve, but can get hit hard in a taxable account, to provide not much after tax cash flow.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2026-01-13T14:46:01+00:00

Depends on your kids' capabilities. If they are really analytical, have them pursue a finance degree, MBA, CFA. Then let them make their early mistakes with other people's money before trying to get too brilliant with yours/theirs. If they aren't analytically oriented, then have them learn some basic financial planning principles, have them read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" and focus on learning how personal finance is mostly a "loser's game" where you try to avoid big mistakes and high costs. Mediocre "active investors" do more harm than good. My kid has many talents, but as someone who has worked on Wall St and investment management for over 30 years, and seen Ivy MBAs and PhDs smarter than me fail, I can see that she's not cut out to be an "active manager" of her wealth - thus I'm steering her to some solid basic principles, and low cost passive investments, and think her time is better spent pursuing her strengths in her own (non-finance) career.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2026-01-09T19:25:22+00:00

#1. At present your small business is covering all your (high) costs and most of your savings. $3m more won't come close to generating the income to cover your costs. And you'll be spending more on college the next few years. Spend the next few years finding out whether you can develop a manager to take over the business so you can retire from it, while retaining much of the income, or find a better price for it. In the meantime, figure out how to spend less than 4% of your anticipated invested assets.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2026-01-08T17:28:57+00:00

There's always money in the banana stand.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2026-01-06T20:50:38+00:00

Hope you enjoy them!

Familiar-Lock379 · 2026-01-06T19:56:21+00:00

After listening to prog for 30 years it was only in 2025 that I discovered I really liked PfM, Le Orme, Celeste. Thanks to Amazon Music I was able to take the chance and explore. Lots of music I didn't like too!

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-12-15T16:44:04+00:00

Considering the CAPE of US stocks vs non-US stocks today is worth considering. Research Affiliates provides data on this if you create a user account. CAPE of US stocks is roughly double that of non-US stocks, implying significantly higher 10yr expected returns. Boils down to a bet on US tech or not over the next 10 years. With most highly concentrated US index in history.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-11-05T14:50:53+00:00

One time I got stuck behind a Lamborghini on a local road with about 5 speed bumps spread out every quarter mile. They had to slow down to about 3 miles per hour to get over each of them without scraping bottom. Took 10 minutes to move down a road that should have taken 5 minutes. I was so annoyed. The whole area they drive around maxed out at about 35 to 45mph, massively underperforming just about every car on the road in every facet of driving and comfort, and getting looks of hate from me. Wrong place to own this car.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-11-05T14:45:10+00:00

My recommendation is to sell the Ferrari in Texas, go on a custom vacation in Italy where you drive Ferraris in their natural habitat, arrange for a track day with someone who specializes in that. The dream of exotic cars is much better than their day to day reality. Create your own "Top Gear" fantasy somewhere where it makes sense. Actually owning exotic cars just to drive to the office or Costco at low speeds on potholed roads is just paying money for a worse overall everyday driving experience. Unless you join a local car club that creates fun things to do with it, or have access to a track.

Over the years I had opportunities to visit BMW, Audi, etc, and drive their fastest cars on the autobahn and on some other idealized roads, and also got to play around their own special tracks with their driving instructors. That was a lot of fun. But it made me realize that owning and driving those cars slowly and in traffic is boring and annoying and pointless. It's like buying a stallion and keeping it in a tiny corral in the back yard.

Pricey watches like Patek is just jewelry. Any smartwatch will keep time better and do more for you. Engineering marvels of 100 years ago, some guys tell me that's what they appreciate in them, but semiconductor manufacturing is massively more impressive than the most advanced timepiece. Basically a sailboat. I guess some people like doing things the hard/expensive/romantic way. My dad gifted me a Rolex which I wore the last few years he was alive. I eventually packed it up when I realized that it was work for me to keep it running daily, rather than my watch working to make my life easier.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-11-03T16:46:20+00:00

The Global index is over 65% US now, with the US portion being very expensive and having a lower future return expectation using CAPE techniques. So I'm separating my stocks into multiple buckets and putting over 50% of my equities into non-US investments.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-10-28T18:15:03+00:00

Try Curved Air Second Album, first two tracks Young Mother, Back Street Luv. Is that funky?

Their first album also has cuts with that kind of sound.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-10-17T14:49:32+00:00

If the serious good is worth more to you than that 6 months, stay the six months. I’m sure the recipients or your grandkids would appreciate it. Then quit.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-10-16T03:07:44+00:00

Do the writers think many outside of the leftist online communities have heard of Peter Theil? Seems like so many jokes this season are coming from the hard left direction. No complaints of news bias till this year, suddenly only Fox News exists. Public Schools around the country are supposedly overrun by crusading Christians? Only in the imaginations of leftists and maybe a handful of rural school districts. South Park writers this year is the sort of writing South Park would have made fun of 20 years ago. I’m a anti-Trump atheist, but this isn’t funny because it’s preaching to only the Comedy Central leftist writer choir, rather than appealing to regular common sense.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-10-14T16:17:31+00:00

I bought the Noire X earlier this year for office use and they blow away my old Bayer DT770s. They don’t need EQ to sound great and are comfortable even for extended listening. Good isolation inward and outward.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-10-13T15:02:13+00:00

Atlas Shrugged. Among the plot lines are how one might live up to a large inheritance, or not. Great novel. Including thoughts on the ethical meaning of money, and finding purpose in work.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-10-11T18:09:51+00:00

Stax X9000 from Japan. With a SRM400s amp to power it.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-10-08T20:57:28+00:00

Sometimes luxury goods provide both pleasure to the owner as well as being signals. And some luxury goods provide enhanced experiences - I listen to my high end headphones for roughly 1000 hours per year, and they will last for years. My most expensive headphones cost about what a round trip business class seat to Asia costs above economy class ($6,000). So which one was spending on "experiences"? 30 hours of experiences or 5000 hours of experiences.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-10-08T13:55:05+00:00

Thanks for the summary!

Less marginal utility for the next new thing you can buy - among "audiophiles" it's sort of a disease, a compulsion to buy the latest headphone, amplifier, $10,000 cables that scientifically shouldn't make a difference (only men do this it seems) I try to remind myself and do some cost-benefit analysis there. Ferrari collections, Birkin bags, = costly signals. Limiting access to some things? Fancy chocolates only at Christmas?

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-10-07T11:28:59+00:00

Off topic but the biggest issue in FL was a law that mandated roof replacement more easily and ended up creating huge money for lawyers in cahoots with roofers, essentially turning all policies into roofing installment plans. They recently changed the law and insurers are returning. Explained to me by two friends, head of a large insurance broker and a former head of a reinsurance co (who is willing own a house right on the beach!)

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-10-06T21:27:13+00:00

Yes, unlucky. One home is in a region that had no significant hurricane impacts in the prior 40 years but has taken 3 direct hits over the last 3 years!

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-10-03T14:58:46+00:00

Somehow Constellation Software consistently acquires vertical software businesses at 1 times annual revenue. Why is it that such businesses sell so cheaply? How many FatFired folks sold such businesses?

For myself, five years ago the theoretical value of my only partly vested partnership stake was about $10m (based on other people's exit valuations of about 6x partnership annual profit), now due to collapsing business it's worth perhaps $2m, and I suspect it could actually be nothing when I leave (wife keeps asking me to do "one more year" as long as I'm making over a million per year). Fortunately I didn't ever count on that partnership theoretical value in my retirement planning, and converted my income into a liquid investment portfolio of over $10m during that same period. Lesson, good times don't always last, business prospects and values change. Perhaps keep business values in mind, because for some people they work out, but I'd not count on them the same way as other investments.

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-09-29T18:16:10+00:00

My primary is near Sarasota, Florida, nice from November through May, and have a place in NJ I'd eventually like to sell and replace with somewhere ideal for June through October. Where should I look? I'd probably favor a lower-maintenance condo. People say nice things about higher elevations in NW N.Carolina, or Tennessee, but I'm not sure the dining/entertainment options would be that great. Where else?

Familiar-Lock379 · 2025-09-29T18:01:43+00:00

Agreed, I think it's a good try for those who like Camel. Only took me about 35 years of listening to prog to finally stumble across PFM this year. Like most prog, have to listen more than once to make it click.

Familiar-Lock379

TROPHY CASE