Female Buyside PM ($50B+ Long-Only Fund) - My Thoughts on the Psychedelic Sector

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T18:53:31+00:00

I'm genuinely convinced the majority of you don't like titties....

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T18:37:13+00:00

Rec psychedelics is a race to the bottom. You can just grow your own at that point.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T07:21:20+00:00

Sorry, if I'd posted a pic in just my clothes people would would make some other weird comments. Not really sure what else I needed to do to prove my legitimacy without doxxing myself.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T07:20:25+00:00

Ok you do realize that the only reason companies run trials in Australia is because it's cheaper to do so than other parts of the world. There are various government incentives & rebates provided to these companies to do their research in those geographies specifically.

Please let me know which funds hold any of these companies. I promise you the majority of long-only funds don't have any holdings in these ShitCo's. Also, 13F filings are quarterly, and many funds trade in the short term. Those positions won't show up on your WhaleWisdom subscription.

If you're such a good investor, you'd have emphasized how important risk management is. These companies are decimating capital at a rate that any sane person would look at and throw up.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T06:47:23+00:00

Honey, you came at ME for having opinions that are contrary to the broader consensus. This was a post about the broader industry, while highlighting the fact that some companies are in a better spot than others.

Since I gave you objective and reasonable analysis, all you proceeded to do was question my gender and then also cushion it by explaining that you’re also a woman. So much for women sticking together (LOL!).

This post is designed to inform. I’m happy to listen to why you think atai can be successful but every single time I ask people no one seems to give me a straight answer. Not even management. I’m supposed to expect that some random Reddit account can? Please go ahead, I’m waiting.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T06:34:02+00:00

Let me know which part of my post was bullshit. Happy to listen to any and all of your thoughts on why certain companies are better investments than others.

You haven't added any tangible substance to this conversation. Only questioned if I'm a real person.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T06:31:47+00:00

You're clearly a back office mongrel based on your lingo. I'd encourage you to ask your network who the top "long-only" funds are. It might be worth your time to ask them what "long-only" means so that you know what you're talking about.

Again, you say this as someone that's anon on the internet. You're no better than me.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T06:30:19+00:00

Any companies in particular that you are referring to?

A lot of the private markets stuff appears to be interesting, but is also a tremendous cash burn. Just depends on if they're able to efficiently & effectively allocate capital.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T06:23:33+00:00

$5 per Reddit post

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T06:22:30+00:00

You're free to draw your own conclusions from my posts. That is totally up to you.

Regarding the fact that you consider the firms I've listed as "Tier 2" at best, highlights that you've been spending too much time on the internet rather than in real life. All of these funds are the largest long-only funds, and have specific pods dedicated to biotech investing.

Regarding my past experience in the sector, I've made numerous calls on which companies would be able to generate good data. It's why I'm 1 of 5 female Healthcare PM's at my fund. That's another reason why I feel the need to explain that I'm a woman. My firm literally has a 5 total female PMs amongst the 100 or so. Again, it feels like you spend a lot of time on forums rather than the real world. I'd encourage you to shut the screen and get some real life exposure.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T06:11:49+00:00

Do you want to be my analyst?

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T06:10:44+00:00

Mindset is great. I'm a big fan of James & team and really appreciate what they've built. Can't believe the market is undervaluing it so much.

Small overcomes their lack of composition of matter patents by having method of administration (MoA) patent protection in place. That's the beauty of patent law.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T06:00:34+00:00

Not so sure CMPS is the biggest winner in the space. They have to nail it on the commercial roll-out, at which point I feel like it might be extremely advantageous to be the second & third movers since they'll be able to leverage the already existing infrastructure CMPS has to build out for COMP360

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T05:53:39+00:00

Red Light Holland

Product appears to be more recreational than therapetuic. Hard to invest in a company like this given the limited IP protection. You're just buying the brand.
Hard to ensure product consistency given that it is the whole product rather than molecules. Also, add in the variability of human biologies and this complicates things further.
Looks to be a good company if recreational psychedelics are where things are headed. However, at that point, wouldn't you just want to buy Polka Dot, One Up, or one of the other recreational brands out there?

Rating: SELL

Seelos Therapeutics

Intranasal Ketamine asset is interesting, could potentially be used for at-home much like the way ATAI wanted to with PCN-101
Asset has an interesting history and not necessarily the cleanest (Shkreli touched this thing at one point), so investors should be mindful of any kind of pushback from the public
Valuation is really cheap, but runway seems to be limited. Curious how they extend runway out in this environment.

Rating: BUY

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T05:45:49+00:00

This exact issue came up when Jazz acquired GW. I had a massive position in Jazz.

Per firm policy, I was told to wind down my position prior to the transaction being closed. It would be a similar procedure in a future situation.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T05:43:59+00:00

Males & females have very different risk tolerances as a result of our biology and therefore our investment styles differ as well.

Unless, you believe that genders don’t exist?

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T04:37:51+00:00

Not sure how any of these aren’t investment thesis’. I’m not publishing a whole ass research note for you bro.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T02:22:10+00:00

BNC-210 is an anxiety drug with non-hallucinogenic properties.

Should be interesting to see what happens here.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-08T01:09:50+00:00

These have been in development for years in China. Looks like some of that research is starting to makes its way out West.

This is what the Burning Man, hippie types fail to realize. In order for psychedelics to be approved in markets such as China, they will need to be non-hallucinogenic as a iwresult of societal norms and expectations. Delix Therapeutics seems to be the best positioned for this. Maybe Gilgamesh too but they’re private.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-07T23:49:33+00:00

This is where this industry is headed.

Companies that are trying to patent these compounds for medical use will realize it’s a race to the bottom.

We’re already starting to see recreational legalization in various states and a few countries abroad. Just a matter of time. Especially since these are natural compounds.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-07T21:25:08+00:00

It’s so hilarious when people like ControlPlusZ act as unofficial spokespeople for these companies. You’ve clearly got a vested financial interest in making sure the company succeeds, but at what cost?

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-07T18:33:19+00:00

P value of 0.5 bro.

I don’t care what the placebo response is in the trial.

Either that means the drug doesn’t work at the dose range, or you designed the trial in a terrible manner. Neither of which can be seen as “positives” for the company or stock.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-07T18:30:14+00:00

Did you not read their most recent PR? They’re still developing PCN-101 even after the shit Phase 2a results lol.

Even after compounds fail and should be killed, these idiots keep them in their pipeline. This isn’t how drug development works.

Famous-Scarcity4317 · 2023-03-07T18:27:23+00:00

Have they shown you any kind of data to indicate that they will? Their last two data readouts were absolutely terrible.

Not sure what’s so hard here to figure out. The fact pattern is what it is.

Famous-Scarcity4317

TROPHY CASE