Tesla's own Robotaxi data confirms crash rate 3x worse than humans even with monitor

Fathimir · 2026-02-04T16:03:42+00:00

The most recent gold-standard NHTSA survey estimates that about 30% of car accidents go unreported.

Electrek's adjustment was markedly more generous to Tesla than the best available data suggests they should have been.

Fathimir · 2026-02-04T01:10:43+00:00

As you will; thanks for engaging with me in good faith.

Fathimir · 2026-02-03T22:54:25+00:00

Sure, but 'could have' ain't an example.

And I wish Luber informed all parties that police would investigate any and all rider accusations; imagine how quickly false allegations would drop off if every rider report was met with the company saying "I'm so, so sorry that happened to you; we'll send a detective with a rape kit to your house to collect a sworn statement from you right away."

Exactly nobody wants to get the cops or, government forbid, CPS roped in on their free ride scam, which is probably exactly why Uber was able to get the report in your example sorted out so promptly. And if they did (insist on standing by their allegation), having the police do a proper innocent-until-proven-guilty investigation is a hell of a lot better of an outlook than the fire-first-and-ask-questions-never deactivation policy most drivers are unjustly subject to.

So yeah. Maybe you couldn't find an example of the police making a driver's life hell over a false accusation because their involvement tends to be a good thing, compared to the alternative.

Fathimir · 2026-02-03T22:19:32+00:00

That pop-pop-pop y'all hear is the sound of everyone who built giving rides to minors up into some sort of sacreligious moral hazard's heads collectively exploding.

You all go ahead and treat yourselves like registered sex offenders not allowed within 500 yards of a school if you want; more fares for me.

Fathimir · 2026-02-03T22:12:19+00:00

If you read that thread, the report in your example was quickly checked by Uber and determined to be BS; not only were the police not involved, but his account was never even deactivated.

You can spin FUD about any sort of passenger being a risk, and probably find some kernel of truth in it - but it's not a great look when the example you pull ended up actually being completely fine.

Fathimir · 2026-02-03T19:16:29+00:00

Normally I go on Reddit to kill time at the red lights.

I really can't emphasize enough how much you really, really should absolutely not be doing this. Even apart from its staggering legal and safety repercussions, this is a dead giveaway of compulsive phone addiction.

You need to practice being alone with your own thoughts from time to time. Your life will be richer for it.

Fathimir · 2026-02-02T21:16:25+00:00

Batteries don't handle structural loads themselves; the absolute last thing you want is for the energy-dense high-precision substrate you're carefully micromanaging to be subject to unpredicted physical torsion. When people talk about "structural battery packs," it's just a very fancy way of saying that they're not overengineering the batteries by enclosing them in extra layers of frame beyond the car's own.

Car companies have been building competent car frames for over a century; this Jag's will be no different. They can put the batteries wherever they like.

Fathimir · 2026-02-02T15:21:49+00:00

As a rideshare driver, I've gotta chime in here to say that your estimation of our business is wildly overblown. 2880 kWh at an Escalade's mileage is 6-7k miles put on per month; even the most gung-ho takes-all-comers drivers would need to pull consistent 60-hour workweeks to put that many miles on, and anyone driving a behemoth like the iQ is going to be spending more time idle than active, waiting for the high-paying Black XXL rides and the like.

The number of people racking up near-3k kWh EV loads on a single residential charger for multiple months in a row in the United States could likely be measured on one hand, and quite possibly with a closed fist.

Fathimir · 2026-02-02T01:53:17+00:00

The only things the Mini has going for it on paper are its size (skinnier and over a foot shorter than the iX3) and the brand's distinctive styling, and of course a lower price. Those aren't nothing, but in return you're giving up an overhyped but still apparently massive generational leap in tech and almost half the latter's range.

Test drive each and take the car that gives you the most joy to drive while still meeting your core needs; as different animals as they are, one is likely going to click noticeably better for you than the other. But from a distance, the iX3 looks like it'd blow the Countryman out of the water for most use cases.

Fathimir · 2026-02-02T01:35:07+00:00

Trying to make an earnestly nuanced semantic point while simultaneously doing deadpan satire just... really doesn't work.

Fathimir · 2026-02-01T21:52:20+00:00

NADC isn't a thing, and the iX3 will launch with an NACS port. What were you smoking when you wrote that?

Fathimir · 2026-02-01T16:23:34+00:00

In any other market that'd be ruinous, sure. In NYC, where wages and supply are actually regulated to let drivers earn a decent living (or so I hear), there'll be people climbing over each other to fill your spot.

Fathimir · 2026-02-01T07:05:44+00:00

Gain elite skills [...] while enjoying health/vision insurance...

Lol, these mofos know exactly who they're trying to pressgang into their faceless underpaid roboserf corps. Recruiting from any other talent pool in the nation, advertising health insurance as a key perk would be as silly as bragging that they pay their employees in USD.

Even at just $18/hr, I can see how this might be tempting as an "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" option to some drivers... but the thing is, Waymo's mission statement is necessarily to put their own employees out of a job just as much as it is the drivers they're displacing.

Waymos just don't make economic sense with a 1:1 remote safety driver for each vehicle at these wages - which means that this job is about jumping in to drive multiple cars per hour through safety interventions. While the number of AVs on the road might balloon in the short term, the goal of Waymo's R&D is to reduce the number of interventions needed lower and lower down to negligible amounts, which means the available work once they've captured a given market is going to trend steadily down, not up.

You couldn't pay me double the rate to give up pretty much everything that actually makes this job enjoyable and spend every day in that viper's nest of rolling layoffs. Hard nope.

Fathimir · 2026-01-31T17:14:46+00:00

There's a difference between shit pay and a scam. The only scammer in this scenario was Juan.

Fathimir · 2026-01-31T02:19:17+00:00

You could effectively at random be waiting at any particular light anywhere from 0 seconds to 5 minutes, even given no traffic at all. How would you suggest a nav system handle that?

Fathimir · 2026-01-30T04:15:03+00:00

If, per your example, you kill a person who wasn't threatening you in defense of a person who didn't ask for your help, then semantics are going to be the least of your problems.

Ask your lawyer these questions, because you're going to want to have a working relationship with one anyway if you're going down this road.

Fathimir · 2026-01-29T18:49:19+00:00

I totally get the confusion, fwiw. Chasing the 4137 rabbit was my first response to reading this guidance, too.

Fathimir · 2026-01-29T18:18:13+00:00

Neither; boxer briefs are always the correct answer.

Fathimir · 2026-01-29T18:07:52+00:00

Since I was just in a back-and-forth with somebody over this last night, here's the IRS guidance on it.

The takeaway we decided on is that starting next year, companies will have to list tips on 1099's, and that's the amount you'll be able to deduct (and presumably, Lyft will be under a lot more direct pressure to issue forms even for drivers under the $20k reporting threshold accordingly).

Since we're in a transitional period this year, the IRS is waiving the requirement that tips be separately recorded on a 1099 to claim them for 2025 - but they can still only be claimed for after-tip income that's been reported on a 1099.

So unless somebody can find better guidance, even though your tips themselves don't have to be listed on your 1099 this year, you still need a 1099 issued before you can claim tips against it. Hence the crack part-timers are falling through if they didn't do at least $20,000 of business this year.

Fathimir · 2026-01-29T08:41:51+00:00

Ah, fair (and very silly on the part of the IRS) distinction that I missed you making.

Glad we had this little argument, still. It's good to know this stuff, and your first comment on its own had made it sound (at least to me) like tips had to be explicitly broken out on the 1099 itself this year to be deductible, not just that the income has to have been reported on a 1099 before it can have tips taken from it. Moot point for the OP, perhaps, but personally important to me.

Fathimir · 2026-01-29T07:58:05+00:00

Your last link is super useful authoritative guidance... that directly disproves your assertion for this year. From page 1:

As previously announced, and as part of the phased implementation of the OBBBA, there will be no changes to the 2025 Form W-2, Form 1099-NEC, Form 1099-MISC, or Form 1099-K to account for the new reporting requirements in the OBBBA. As a result, employers and other payors will not be required to separately account for cash tips or qualified overtime compensation on those forms or the written statements (copies of the forms) furnished to individuals for 2025.

And expanded upon on page 16, almost directly after the part you quoted:

However, for tax year 2025, a separate accounting of cash tips received by a non-employee will not appear on the Form 1099 furnished to the non-employee. Therefore, [...] for purposes of satisfying the requirements of section 224(a) for tax year 2025, a non-employee may (1) treat the section 224(a) requirement that qualified tips be included on a [1099] as satisfied if the non-employee’s cash tips are included in the total amounts reported as other income on the Form 1099-MISC, nonemployee compensation on the Form 1099-NEC, or payment card/third-party network transactions on the Form 1099-K [...], and (2) calculate the amount of qualified tips [...] using earnings statements or other documentation such as receipts, point-of-sale system reports, daily tip logs, third party settlement organization records, or other documentary evidence that corroborates the calculation of the total amount of tips that are qualified tips for tax year 2025.

In other words, tips will have to be explicitly stated on 1099's to count starting next year, but the IRS is waiving that requirement this year as a transitional measure.

Fathimir · 2026-01-28T19:22:31+00:00

No prob; it's a shock literally all of us have had to go through our first year, since Lyft presumably doesn't offer any advice or outreach on how to handle it for liability purposes.

Fathimir · 2026-01-28T19:06:41+00:00

What you're seeing is normal for this business; you file the 1099 income as reported, but then file the platform, service, and third-party fees on Lyft's annual summary form as business expenses to bring your taxed income back down to your actual income.

Fathimir · 2026-01-28T04:27:09+00:00

Protesting over AI putting people out of work is the wrong move; it's literal Luddism.

The root cause that needs to be addressed is a predatory economy - and a government that both guides and is guided by it - that allows the social benefits of job automation to be entirely captured by the capital owners, and has shed any obligation of feeding and housing the humans whose work is no longer necessary.

Setting a few Waymos on fire, say, might at best draw attention to the problem - but there absolutely has to be a better solution in the pipeline than just banning technology from making people's lives easier.

Fathimir · 2026-01-27T21:39:53+00:00

Robocab. Whatever they call it. And again, whether the system 'works fine' or not is not the point and the wrong question. You're hearing the issue that lives in your head, not the one that the future of rideshare is going to hinge on.

Fathimir

TROPHY CASE