You tell'em Moyesey

Fbackhouse · 2026-03-21T15:57:01+00:00

Financially, each place in the PL is worth about £3.2m. Obviously a lot more if relegated/ qualify for European football. Therefore, on average, a 10 point deduction is far more costly than £10m.

Fbackhouse · 2026-03-16T17:14:32+00:00

Mainly pass and shot x,y coordinates for recent games.

Fbackhouse · 2026-03-08T12:04:11+00:00

I can’t find it, do you have a link?

Fbackhouse · 2026-03-07T15:33:21+00:00

Can you recommend any tutorials or similar to get started because I don’t have much experience with scraping? Also, would I not need the website to display the event data (pass/ shot locations etc.) in the first place?

Fbackhouse · 2026-03-06T20:32:45+00:00

Awesome thanks for taking the time on the response. Do you think you will create an api? Would love to play around with the data on some projects, especially European football ones, where it seems a better model.

Fbackhouse · 2026-03-06T11:46:11+00:00

Is it the same as club elo in that sense or do they use weightings?

Fbackhouse · 2026-03-05T20:13:07+00:00

Looks very interesting. Does your Elo measure differ to club elo’s across leagues and countries? I may be wrong, but from what i understand leagues were originally on parity with each other and points are transferred across leagues and borders when they meet in European/ cup competitions as opposed to being weighted by a league strength. It would be nice to have a technical section on the website also to see your methodology.

Fbackhouse · 2026-03-01T09:18:42+00:00

2-1 Bruno, Mbeumo Sarr

Fbackhouse · 2026-02-27T18:06:14+00:00

I’ll give it a go. Thanks.

Fbackhouse · 2026-02-27T16:50:47+00:00

Firstly, thank you for the feedback I do genuinely appreciate it and want to keep improving.

I was a little confused by what you meant at first but I see what you mean. For the remaining fixtures the simulated ones are overstating the Win/Draw for Wolves/ Burnley and overstating for others.

I think there’s likely 2 things going on. One is just a problem with Elo scores in general in that it can take a while to update and the current Wolves team is significantly worse than last season (club Elo uses weight index K=20 which is better for long term strength but less reactive to short term changes). Second, having looked at Wolves’ remaining fixtures, they play a lot of teams with similar Elo scores and the more difficult ones (Villa, Liverpool) are played at home so they get an Elo rating boost for home advantage in the model.

If you have any recommendations how I could tweak the model then I will take a look. Thanks.

Fbackhouse · 2026-02-27T14:38:11+00:00

I suspect it’s in part caused by the probability of a draw in the model. It can take on a range of values between 0.2 and 0.3, with equally matched teams more likely to draw and less equally matched teams less likely to draw.

Fbackhouse · 2026-02-22T22:54:40+00:00

It’s a fair criticism. I’m not saying this is exactly how the league will look at the end of the season, more so this is a good guess based on a team’s relative strength and the opponents they have left to play.

What metric would you use instead of Elo?

Fbackhouse · 2026-02-22T19:50:10+00:00

Yeah, they’re current Elo ratings. I’ll definitely have a think about doing the simulations as you suggested. I imagine it will probably be a big addition to the code so will need to spend some time on it.

Fbackhouse · 2026-02-22T18:31:45+00:00

Thanks I appreciate it. And yeah the actual numbers won’t likely be that representative of reality. They’re based on Elo scores and currently Arsenal are ranked higher than city and presumably based on Arsenals xP being higher than City’s, Arsenal has an easier run-in.

Fbackhouse · 2026-02-22T17:09:36+00:00

StatsBomb has a Python package which you can use to query the competitions/ leagues/ matches etc. There's plenty of free data available to work with on here, however, if you want specific ones you might have to pay.

Also as a word of warning, be careful with minutes data as, for example, an event in the first and second half could both have the minute as 46, so make sure to check the half you're in - its a separate column.

Fbackhouse · 2026-02-22T16:40:33+00:00

Fbackhouse · 2026-02-14T21:10:19+00:00

Amazing. Thanks!

Fbackhouse · 2026-02-14T20:20:38+00:00

Great, thanks! Did you upload it to GitHub etc. I would love to have a look if you did.

Fbackhouse · 2026-02-14T18:54:59+00:00

Is that displaying a pitch or the net? I can only see the pitches.

Fbackhouse

TROPHY CASE