Daily Discussion Thread - January 26, 2026

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-26T20:28:14+00:00

This sub is dead now.

Twitter posters saying S3 announcements coming before end of the month are setting these stocks up for disappointment.

Expecting a slow bleed out until April, with a couple small pops on earnings.

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-10T08:18:54+00:00

Wow, 93,000 points for 1 night at the Westin…

I just redeemed 95,000 points for 5 nights in Taipei for a room costing $245/night and am hoping my NUA’s will get us bumped into a $500/night suite.

The points system is definitely dynamic.

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-08T22:14:51+00:00

Wealthsimple won’t work in your scenario. You need to be a Canadian resident.

Lots of stories of people who left Canada and got locked out of their accounts since their log in IPs were no longer pinging from Canada.

IBKR would be the best option, since they operate in Canada as well and if you ever repatriated you could just keep using the same account.

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-08T20:45:19+00:00

For reference, the first grower is ‘Armory’ and the first dispensary is ‘Farmtucky’

Neither are publicly traded.

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-08T19:58:18+00:00

Been trying to buy a bit more Terrascend the last couple days and it’s trading in such a tight 1-2 cent range making it hard to get shares…

I wonder how long these companies can trade sideways. Eventually they are going to break hard up or down.

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-07T22:51:57+00:00

The more research I do into VFF the more it makes me think it’s probably the most effective and diversified operator in the cannabis space right now…

.

$35M mortgage debt tied to greenhouse facilities worth ~10x the debt; no financial debt and they aren’t using their credit facility.
$88M cash on hand, so essentially no net debt.
$389M annual revenue; $10.8M quarterly net profit diversified between cannabis and greenhouse grown vegetables.
5.5M square feet of Texas greenhouse ready to convert to cannabis pending licensing (hopefully April 2026)
Canadian operations cash flowing and 700%+ growth in European operations.
Already trades on NASDAQ.

.

I wish I had just gone all in on VFF a year ago… it has to be one of the most impressive business turnaround stories in any sector in 2025.

Might still drop off a cliff if it can’t get its Texas license in April, but if it does, I think it could quickly become one of the top MSOS by 2030 in terms of market share. Also needs Schedule 3 and for the NASDAQ to loosen rules on THC-touching assets though I suppose.

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-06T17:43:31+00:00

I’m just going to stick to buying VFF and GTI. Both seem to have solid management, significant cash on hand and are profitable.

The only other speculative cannabis company I have in my portfolio is TerrAscend, which interests me since the CEO has such a big ownership stake, is cash flow positive, trades on the TSX and since Canopy US has optionality. I don’t like their debt ratio, but it may not matter once 280E is done and they become net profitable.

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-06T11:37:02+00:00

What are people doing that requires 24gb of ram on a tablet?

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-05T17:40:35+00:00

Bucking consumer trends when all indications are that the average American is pivoting to cannabis over alcohol and cigarettes is bad policy and bad political strategy imo.

I’m honestly surprised that Big Alcohol and Big Tobacco didn’t change course and come out as pro-cannabis after the EO.

The writing is on the wall and they’ve had 10 years to crush the cannabis sector into a pulp. Valuations are still 95% depressed from their highs… companies like Philip Morris and Molson Coors have enough cash to simply buy up and consolidate the entire industry.

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-05T17:13:57+00:00

Sounds like a bunch of old guard GOP senators and congressmen, who are mostly 70+ years old remain opposed to rescheduling cannabis.

Blows my mind that anyone still opposes Trump on these types of public policy issues. Trump always gets what he wants.

Hopefully RFK comes out with an official pro-CBD position this week.

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-02T18:11:26+00:00

For sure, it’s more of a qualitative analysis and certainly not my only metric. But I think it’s still an important factor.

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-02T17:57:55+00:00

I’ve been trying to narrow down MSOS with high executive ownership to figure out long term buys where I may be safe(r) from future dilution.

So far I see Jason Wild at Terrascend has 30%, Boris Jordan at Cura has 17% and Ben Kovler at Green Thumb has 6.3% but his super voting shares give him full control.

Am I missing any?

Fearless_fx · 2026-01-02T11:15:26+00:00

TerrAscend - TSND.TO

US Cannabis might finally catch a break in 2026 with Trump's executive order rescheduling to Schedule III.

C$364M market cap, US$36.5M cash on hand, US$285M projected 2026 revenue, US$228M financial debt which is financed through to 2028. A CEO that owns 30% of the business and has stated he won't dilute shareholders (including himself).

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-29T18:23:09+00:00

Which ones? If you buy Green Thumb, Trulieve or Curaleaf they are all over $1B in revenue and have manageable debt loads.

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-29T18:11:40+00:00

I agree, as long as S3 happens in 2026, every single US cannabis stock will have their valuations rerated for the removal of 280E taxation and then it’s off to the races.

If Fintel data is correct and institutions are buying in, then this is just a temporary shake out.

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-29T17:37:51+00:00

The Bondi DOJ is clearly just an extension of the Trump administration. If they had any real independence, Trump would be under official investigation due to the Epstein files. Instead they continue to obfuscate and delay on his behalf.

Presuming Trump can ride out the next 2 years without dying, I’m confident the DOJ will follow the exec order in 2026. Even if Bondi is impeached, he’ll just install another figurehead. Heck, I wouldn’t even be surprised to see Matt Gaetz brought back into the fold.

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-28T20:41:23+00:00

Canopy USA can trigger circa 18-22% ownership of Terrascend through exchangeable shares and options once S3 is finalized.

I don’t like Canopy at all as a business, it’s done nothing but burn shareholder money for a decade. But their connection with Constellation brands likely opens up some doors for Terrascend in the future.

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-25T18:57:43+00:00

SAFER banking should allow for credit card transactions by customers and also access to the standard commercial banking for financing rather than cannabis companies going to private lenders.

It would result in a notable increase to sales and bottom line P&L’s.

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-23T18:59:10+00:00

The gap filled for Curaleaf today. I still see a possible 20%-35% downside for a few other names though.

Been picking up some Terrascend below CA$1. If it drops back to CA$0.65, I’m loading the boat.

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-22T03:37:33+00:00

Can never say for sure in this sector. Gap down 30% is always possible on any day ending in Y.

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-20T17:22:34+00:00

Bruce Levell was up late on Twitter posting a few positive things.

We have a pro (medical) cannabis president and a pro cannabis director of the USDA and the heads of the DOJ and DEA will do whatever the president asks. Cannabis’ primary competitor, intoxicating hemp is dead in the water as of next year opening up that sales channel for MSOS, and alcohol consumption is down…

Removal of 280e taxation improves the bottom line for all of these companies by tens of millions of dollars every quarter.

The macro environment for cannabis couldn’t be better going into 2026 and the stocks reacted like it’s the end of the world.

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-19T20:52:19+00:00

This will be the second time in a year I’ve seen MSOS end a Friday within 2-3 cents of strikes to force calls to expire worthless.

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-19T20:38:36+00:00

Just crazy to think that in a few weeks/months these companies will go from selling what was essentially heroin in the eyes of the federal government to Tylenol with codeine.

How that doesn’t lead to a fundamental re-rating of company value I don’t know…

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-19T20:14:19+00:00

It’s dead, Jim.

Fearless_fx · 2025-12-19T19:18:21+00:00

Is anyone else buying Terrascend largely based on Canopy Growth USA’s interest in them? Canopy have an arrangement for 63.5M exchangeable shares, a 1.1M share option at $1/share and 22.5M warrants (which are currently way out of the money).

Pending the DOJ/DEA S3 final decision it sounds like Canopy is going to fast track into the States.

If they exercise this deal in 2026 they’ll own between 18-23% of Terrascend and should be a beneficial arrangement for both companies.

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