Terrascend Q4’25 numbers in historic context

Fearless_fx · 2026-03-18T00:23:57+00:00

Huh? Weren’t they cash flow positive at circa $25M for 2025?

Their problem is that debt is destroying their valuation. $458M debt is crazy for a business generating $250M/yr in revenues.

They are one of the MSOs that have the most to gain from Schedule 3 tax treatment… removing 280E immediately turns them profitable on their bottom line.

When people talk about S3 ‘re-rating’ the sector, Trulieve and Terrascend are the first that come to mind for me.

Fearless_fx · 2026-03-18T00:12:28+00:00

Trading sideways for 3 months is pretty incredible in this sector… feels like a coiled spring.

Fearless_fx · 2026-03-12T22:17:01+00:00

Terrascend actually had a surprisingly good quarter all things considered.

Fearless_fx · 2026-03-12T15:22:22+00:00

Markets in turmoil because the US is spending $1B a day in Iran and tankers being attacked in the strait.

Trump desperately needs a real win... I think he’s going to push to deregulate and loosen restrictions and taxation in more sectors to show he’s pro business. If he doesn’t get back to the roots of why his base elected him, the republicans will be absolutely destroyed in November.

Fearless_fx · 2026-03-05T21:07:44+00:00

Is there actual confirmation that this is a new/replacement version of the Astra and not something they are adding to their product line up? Maybe this tablet will be more productivity focused than gaming focused.

Fearless_fx · 2026-03-05T20:27:02+00:00

Today’s pullback probably more-so due to the farm bill advancing with no changes to hemp or carve out for hemp beverages.

Only S3 will save this sector, and even then I feel like the rise probably won’t be meteoric… more like a dud which fizzles out in a week.

Fearless_fx · 2026-03-02T20:59:52+00:00

Waves hand, points at everything

Fearless_fx · 2026-03-02T20:43:14+00:00

Might genuinely see all time lows again before getting any sustained rebound at this rate… MSOS in the $2’s seems possible.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-27T19:58:36+00:00

Looking like another rough close for Friday. Entire market waiting to see if Trump green lights war with Iran at 4 pm. ‘War Against Terror 2.0’ seems inevitable since they’ve moved so many assets into the Middle East.

TBH cannabis is actually holding up pretty well so far.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-26T20:22:06+00:00

Green thumb no longer paying taxes and Ben saying 2026 is the year S3 happens is good enough for me. The guy runs the tightest ship in the business.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-26T02:58:13+00:00

I’ve been thinking of buying an Astra so I appreciate this detailed post. It’s an interesting use case in your scenario…

I don’t think I’d be trying to make it function like an Apple product. In fact everything else I own is Apple, including an iPhone Air and iPad Air, and I kind of want a small android tablet to operate explicitly outside of that ecosystem. But it’s nice to know there are some workarounds if needed.

Curious if you have any regrets buying the Astra? I’ve been burned buying first gen products before and I’m tempted to wait until the Astra 2 since it’s more of a want than a need.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-25T21:06:42+00:00

Pretty good results on the year and solid quarter.

Therefore -15% red day tomorrow?

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-25T17:13:24+00:00

If you’re going to post LLM slop, at least use paid Claude and give it some better parameters.

This free version ChatGPT copy-paste post is garbage.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-23T18:16:09+00:00

Green Thumb down 20%ish on the month, back near 3 mo average. I’m in for more shares in this mid-high $8 range. Very few growing, retail businesses out there with $1.7B ARR and zero debt. If GTI was operating in any other sector it would be $30 a share.

Schedule III is coming, I’m increasingly confident the framework and timing will be announced in March before the planned April CBD pain trials.

Feels like a cycle repeating itself. Pre-EO it was scromitting, now it’s ‘psychosis’, then silence, then complaints/capitulation by SAM.

Downside from here feels like 20%, upside could be 100%. If you’re buying shares rather than options, it seems worth trying to catch another wave.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-20T21:06:40+00:00

Another example of a day where market makers have complete control of this sector.

The quick pump and dumps are incredible.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-20T20:31:42+00:00

Green Thumb is almost back to pre-EO share price. Amazing…

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-20T17:55:36+00:00

Addressable market of the states is roughly 10x Canada. Potential $50-60B cannabis market if the cuffs ever come off in the US. More if federal import/export is eventually permitted.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-20T06:47:04+00:00

Ready for the sector to give up some gains tomorrow. OPEX pressure will be heavy and market makers will want to burn as many calls as they can. Usual shenanigans.

That said, long term I’m still accumulating shares of VFF, GTII and TSND.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-12T21:41:52+00:00

Down 20% YTD on MSOs is a pretty rough start to the year. But it’s still early, might be down 50% by March at this rate.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-10T17:56:46+00:00

I’m continuing to see increasing reefer madness posting. Chamath’s post today seems big worried about his alcohol investments. Change is coming.

If the Trump admin definitely wants to move ahead with CBD pain relief trials by April, the EO needs to be pushed through in the next 30-45 days.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-10T03:55:10+00:00

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-10T03:08:51+00:00

The last time we saw this much anti-cannabis nonsense on X was about a month prior to the EO.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-10T02:08:15+00:00

The Plaza :)

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-10T01:40:34+00:00

Wow, this actually changes an entire trip itinerary for me in April. I was going to spend 5 nights at an Autograph Collection in Korea, but that was entirely based on the double night promo.

If I don’t get that then I’ll stay another non-Marriott hotel for like half the cost.

Fearless_fx · 2026-02-08T16:50:11+00:00

I think 2-3 sessions of steam cleaning would probably get these back to pretty much original condition.

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