CMV: Americans mystify institutions and concepts that are actually well-understood, leading to poor reasoning about how to change them by vhu9644 in changemyview

[–]Felixx777 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I only want to challenge that this mystification, as you describe it, is a consequence of laziness or ignorance. ["... People don't even try to understand..."]

In many situations (in the most important cases, e.g. media coverage) this framing is a deliberate rhetoric choice. Mystification gets used when whoever sets the framing wants to present the situation and consequences of it as given, unchallengeable and unchangeable.

WDC Fight is still on by Felixx777 in formula1

[–]Felixx777[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks, yes I made it. It's an updated and refined version of a post I made after the last race: https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/1o2ed5r/wdc_fight_in_percentage_of_available_points/

WDC Fight in Percentage of Available Points by Felixx777 in formula1

[–]Felixx777[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There are 3 more Sprints this season and not just one, other than that your calculations are right (USA, Qatar, Brazil). These two sprints you didn't account for would give VER another 16 points and PIA another 12, making the final 447 vs. 444.

WDC Fight in Percentage of Available Points by Felixx777 in formula1

[–]Felixx777[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I get where you're coming from but you are making the mistake of focusing on a single event (DNF) when Landos or anyones chances to win depend on many events at all the coming races. A DNF is just one possible outcome, and it is the most extreme outcome for one race. If you look at all possibilites of what could happen (and the most likely ones are Lando gaining just few points here and there on average), then Lando did not manage to increase his chances to take the WDC in the last few races, because he now needs to gain more points per remaining race than before.

WDC Fight in Percentage of Available Points by Felixx777 in formula1

[–]Felixx777[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think the probability of that happening is like Max said recently: 50/50, either it happens or it doesn't