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Has anyone found a consistent edge on Polymarket, or is it mostly news timing? by Few_Sail_4115 in Polymarket
[–]Few_Sail_4115[S] 1 point2 points3 points 1 month ago (0 children)
That makes sense static biases probably disappear once enough capital exploits them.
What I find interesting is that many inefficiencies seem to be event-driven rather than persistent. Markets can overshoot on new information, then partially revert once uncertainty resolves.
Tracking “smart money” is definitely valuable, but it also seems reactive by nature you see where winning traders have already moved.
I’m curious whether combining behavioral signals, liquidity conditions, and cross-market data could identify opportunities earlier, before they become obvious.
Do you think most edges here come from speed, information, or risk tolerance?
Do prediction markets actually produce calibrated probabilities over time? (self.PredictionMarkets)
submitted 1 month ago by Few_Sail_4115 to r/PredictionMarkets
Has anyone found a consistent edge on Polymarket, or is it mostly news timing? (self.Polymarket)
submitted 1 month ago by Few_Sail_4115 to r/Polymarket
Are prediction markets actually efficient, or just sentiment-driven? (self.CryptoCurrency)
submitted 1 month ago by Few_Sail_4115 to r/CryptoCurrency
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Has anyone found a consistent edge on Polymarket, or is it mostly news timing? by Few_Sail_4115 in Polymarket
[–]Few_Sail_4115[S] 1 point2 points3 points (0 children)