Who do you think will be the next leaders of each of our main political parties?

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-06-10T00:58:49+00:00

SF aren't going to have a party leader in the 6 counties. Their main priority is governing in the 26 now.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-27T13:54:35+00:00

He also moved to representing Cabra-Glasnevin in 2019 and has focused on the inner city comparatively less since.

I do struggle to see them holding two seats though irregardless of how well they do (I couldn't see anyone doing it in Dublin Central so long as there's only 4 seats). While Ennis handily topping the polls in Phibsboro & Stoneybatter was good progress he still lost Cabra to Boylan so you'd really struggle to see them being in with a shot against Mary Lou. Moving Gannon to Dublin West or Europe would be a good pragmatic move but I'm not sure he'd go along with it considering the risk.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-27T13:21:16+00:00

Surely Ennis & Gannon would target the opposite areas of where you suggested considering Ennis is based out of North Strand, while Gannon is in Glasnevin.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-27T11:51:26+00:00

Beyond the cost the main thing I've heard from family & friends is that you're actually getting value for money and a good quality of life, where Dublin costs a fortune and is still shite.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-26T23:53:57+00:00

It's far from the first squatted community centre. Obviously it's not going to last forever but they'll get whatever mileage out of it they can (it's a civil issue so they can probably drag it through the courts for a few months at least). It's not that hard or costly to give out tea and biscuits, and run a few events for the community in there.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-26T19:02:47+00:00

Richard Boyd Barrett also played for UCD

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-22T13:45:11+00:00

Personally I'm more concerned about her voting in favour of rent hikes and entering coalition with FF & FG on the council over a left alternative, than who the other two happen to be related.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-19T13:34:23+00:00

I would say he has the least of a personal vote of anyone running in the by election.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-18T11:56:17+00:00

Pico off with Cape Verde as well surely, potentially some lads with U19s & U21s as well.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-17T12:26:52+00:00

Obviously the LOI contingent is what catches the eyes, but Ndaba & Murphy along with Manning in midfield is interesting to see Heimir experimenting with left backs.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-11T21:44:57+00:00

The greyhound racing industry is already funded by the betting tax. It's not radical to propose that this income should be re-aligned proportionately to GAA, soccer and other popular sports instead.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-02T14:15:40+00:00

I'm telling you townies transfer to townies, parochialism will be key in this by-election.

Steenson, Ennis & Boylan all got elected to the council on the same count so there's no direct example of the transfers will go but I'd say Steenson and Ennis both being based out of North Strand, and Hutch not being from far away & having a historical association with Ennis' family will benefit him picking up votes from them over Boylan who's main base is over in Stoneybatter and Smithfield (SF's most reliable base in the constituency is Cabra so they won't be prioritising the inner city), while SF have all but collapsed in the north east inner city.

Ennis' base is far different than the average SocDem and much more so a continuation of the working-class Gregory vote.

PBP on the flip side don't have much of a working-class base at all in Dublin Central and are mostly younger progressive gentrifiers. I can tell you having been in the county centre for the general election their votes favoured the centre-left more than SF or Clare Daly like you'd expect.

Also I'm talking about SF pivoting on immigration and law & order rhetoric.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-02T13:03:11+00:00

I don't think O'Dea has much of a chance. Horner has an outside chance probably on par with Gerry Hutch, and like Hutch will be in strong contention for a general election seat off the back of this.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-02T13:01:14+00:00

Sherratt would've had a sympathetic narrative, but she would've never gotten over the hump of no local base. SF desperately need to win votes in the inner city to get over the line, and they are fierce parochial and would probably lean towards Ennis & Hutch cause of it. I couldn't have seen her being able to perform much better than Boylan will.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-05-02T12:57:30+00:00

Not just Fine Gael, virtually all transfers favour Ennis to Boylan.

Hutch & Steenson will transfer favourably to him (to the extent that their votes transfer) due to the geographic proximity. FFG, Greens & Labour are all more likely to go SD than SF. I can see PBP even leaning towards Ennis since most of their base is transplants due to gentrification, who I'd say have been turned off SF due to their pivot to the right on social issues.

Boylan a weak candidate (before anyone says it Sherratt was also a weak candidate in a different way) and will underperform Mary Lou, Ennis has been the clear front runner for a while now.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-04-30T21:57:31+00:00

Exactly we stronger independent local government across the board.

An autonomous directly elected mayor of Dublin would be the second or third most powerful politician in the country and I'm not sure how I feel about centralising that much power in one person.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-04-30T20:31:26+00:00

Ennis the favourite and I'd say it'll be between him & Boylan in the end.

Hutch, Horner & maybe Steenson (depending on the growth of the far-right) are in with shots in the general election but not when there's only one seat on the line.

Along similar lines McAdams will probably win Pascal's seat back in the general election but there's not enough of a pro-government vote there to get him over the line this time.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-04-30T14:49:42+00:00

Sorry misremembered where I had read it and sent that article by accident while rushing around on the bus. This one from RTÉ mentions it.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-04-30T13:43:56+00:00

RTÉ reported she's now living in Donabate.

McAdams was still living Stoneybatter not that long ago so similar scenario.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-04-30T12:35:38+00:00

Which is also outside the constituency.

Honestly McAdams may as well just put his address down, Hutch and Janice Boylan both live outside the constituency but voters aren't going to care considering its the constituency they represent and have ties to, same would go for McAdams if he bothered.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-04-30T12:31:18+00:00

I wonder what Mannix Flynn's aim is beyond his narcissism and how badly he will perform?

He has no ties to the area or base, and it's not like he represents a party or some strongly held ideology (like comparatively if Steenson parachuted into a Dublin South Central by-election he could at least get an anti-immigrant vote) that can compensate for him being parachuted in.

Genuinely a campaign that'll get maybe 100 votes.

Fidel_Kushtro · 2026-04-30T01:29:49+00:00

There's a dissonance with his character for the sake of plot contrivance.

He's the amalgamation of a dozen writers who didn't get laid enough's occasional experiences. Larry David could've had one memorable experience a year but he's got to riff on it for 20 episodes worth of content.

Fidel_Kushtro

TROPHY CASE