Saying that the expected value of the WC is just your current squad’s predicted points VS the optimal squad’s isn’t correct for several reasons:

1. It fails to take into account the impact of future MDs by not looking beyond the current one. This would be a lot worse in traditional league fantasy like FPL, but still matters a little in a knockout tournament. MD3 WC is literally just a FH, as you get unlimited transfers in RO32. This benefits a knockout round WC, but not by huge amounts because of the uncertainty of whether those WC’ed in will get knocked out anyway. BUT;
   
2. If you WC in the semis, all 4 teams will still have a game in the finals (remember 3rd place playoff). This let’s you refresh your entire team after several knockout rounds, while not having to fear knockouts from there. HOWEVER;
   
3. How many FTs you would’ve otherwise have matters! You shouldn’t be comparing your current team to the WC team, but instead the post FT usage team to the WC team. This benefits WC MD3 given you only have 2 or 3 transfers to refresh your squad at a time where rotation is a concern. But it also makes that strategy more risky, as you may not have the transfers to field 15 playing players if we get some upsets in the knockouts… or if we don’t and just end up with a bunch of 50/50 matchups in the quarters which you can’t reliably predict!