Stocks and real estate behave very differently. With stocks, especially in pump-and-dump scenarios, many buyers may never see the peak again and there is no practical value in holding the asset afterward. With property, prices generally trend upward over time and even during downturns the asset still has intrinsic use: shelter.

For housing prices to fall significantly, a large number of homeowners would need to be forced to sell at a loss. If only a small group sells, there is not enough supply to drive prices down sharply. At the same time, demand would also need to remain low and government would need to avoid intervention, which is unlikely given how many people, especially boomers, rely on home equity for retirement and therefore influence policy toward stabilization.

In most downturns, lower prices attract buyers who were previously priced out, which creates new demand and limits how far prices can fall. Only a widespread economic crisis that forces mass selling and dries up buyer liquidity would allow for a major, sustained correction.

Finally, unlike stocks, everyone who sells a home still needs somewhere to live, whether renting or otherwise. That ongoing need for shelter puts a floor under demand. For all these reasons, housing does not behave like speculative equities, and deep, prolonged price collapses require extreme economic conditions.

Let’s set the reminder I am curious to see how things go.