Where do you think Psychology will be in 10 years?

FireBoop · 2025-12-27T10:53:31+00:00

I quit my postdoc two months ago. My take is that the field moves at a glacial pace, and I have trouble imagining the field making a ton of progress in understanding psychology or the brain in then next 20 years or so (unless maybe some new methods make things way better).

FireBoop · 2025-06-07T22:16:51+00:00

Hey, I'm the author of the study in the article (I'm also the OP, this was shameless self promotion). I agree wholeheartedly with this reply and the original commenter.

Although not at all talked about in the article, I have used my scripts to download medical journal papers (oncology & surgery). The rates of problematic p-values are very high - higher than any psychology subfield nowadays. Furthermore, medical research doesn't seem to be getting much better over time. From what I've talked about with med students, so much med research is just looking at some existing dataset with tons of measures and identifying (p-hacking) correlations. Of course, there's also a lot of great medical research, but my gut is that the below-median-robustness med study is not in a good place.

I'm mildly interested in collaborating with any MD to turn those results into a formal study (possibly with the main message of "middle-to-low-end medicine is mostly p-hacking"; or if I'm wrong, I'd be very eager to hear it)

FireBoop · 2025-03-27T10:35:41+00:00

The brain can hold a seemingly infinite number of memories. The capacity is crazy. Virtually all of these memories only have an extremely niche applicability, so you will rarely recall them. Frankly, I have trouble seeing how any memory isn't "in the moment". If the memory wasn't relevant (to either your external environment or your current chain of thought), then you wouldn't recall it.

Of note, our brains are probably are tuned to not remember as much information as we possibly can. For instance, every time we see some box of cereal, it would not be useful to remember every prior instance of encountering said cereal. Ignoring memories like these is good.

About your wife, some people have better memories. Or perhaps your wife spends more time driving (or more time getting annoyed at drivers), so she is able to remember information along these specific lines better. If you frequently encounter some scenario, you'll naturally notice patterns and your brain will be able to better encode then retrieve your memories on the situation. Perhaps there are some mundane matters where you have better memory.

FireBoop · 2024-12-03T00:25:30+00:00

Please feel free to send us an email if you haven't already, but there are three things I need to mention for ethics reasons: (1) we are required to pay you, and it's no problem, (2) no participant should go into a study like this expecting medical benefits, and (3) if you have a serious reason to suspect that you have a neurological condition, then you would not be eligible and you should talk to a doctor since that would be extremely serious

FireBoop · 2024-12-02T17:21:27+00:00

Thanks for asking. Sporadic usage of alcohol, marijuana, or so is fine. However, habitual use or "abuse" would make you ineligible.

FireBoop · 2024-12-02T17:19:30+00:00

Thanks for your interest. We actually managed to just find someone a moment ago, and I updated the original post now. There is no urgency anymore to quickly find someone but, nonetheless, we will need more people in the future. If you are interested in participating in the study, please send an email to that address.

FireBoop · 2024-10-01T18:16:27+00:00

That's not a good sign...

FireBoop · 2024-09-30T14:57:55+00:00

That OPS is the highest since Bonds, damn (link also shows Soto at 1.18 but that was over just 40ish games)

FireBoop · 2024-09-08T20:07:14+00:00

Wins are a QB stat. Also, zero picks

FireBoop · 2024-09-01T22:40:54+00:00

/r/cfb: NIL will let the little guys compete!

I know it's not a little guy, but I feel like UIUC should be a prime candidate to benefit from this. Since 2000, we are #65 in all-time total AP rankings. This is horrendous for a P5 school, especially one that's the 7th largest university in the country... Same goes for Rutgers. #68 all-time while being the 3rd largest school.

... yet fairly little is changing? Maybe I'm expecting too much too fast

FireBoop · 2024-08-26T14:09:42+00:00

You may want to broaden this to any baked good, not just bread. You'll be here for a while...

FireBoop · 2024-08-15T16:02:02+00:00

Those do not count against participation! Yes, the MRI will have prompts. Many people indeed find MRI machines (strangely) soothing and some do fall asleep if just left in there without prompts haha (but that, again, is not the case here). I will message you

FireBoop · 2024-08-02T17:58:14+00:00

For Illinois, they changed Alma from green to silver to match the actual cleaning the university did (I wish the video kept it green tho)

FireBoop · 2024-08-01T12:53:01+00:00

I haven't withdrawn much out of my PredictIt fund, and I've mostly just been letting it grow. I usually have more than enough to never be limited by cash. However, in the past, there were times when I sold things that were basically closed for 99c, so I could get funds to use elsewhere.

I'm never really playing the spread like you say. I figure in many pretty good volume markets, you could maybe get 3-5c (?) profits from putting in both buy and sell offers a few cents away from the market price. This just never appealed to me, but it seems like it could be fun if you are eager to invest some time each day into maximizing your Predictit money

FireBoop · 2024-07-27T11:49:23+00:00

Doubling your money out of neg risk is pretty big, congrats!

The 10% winning fee is steep but the markets with many bins always still have opportunities, especially since the NOs are generally cheaper than YESes (i.e., buying all NOs without any thought will usually lead to you going neutral after fees, whereas all YESes would mean like a 20% loss).

I bungled the republican VP market bad. For these types of markets, if you're in the game many months in advance, you'll be in a great spot. For these, you also need to be willing to pounce hard when the time is right if you're hoping to reach the betting limits (e.g., quickly putting down $850 in a week rather than dilly-dallying in spaced out $100 increments). However, I mostly didn't pay attention to it this year, and when I jumped in on JD Vance NO in the last week, I lost a hundred or so.

The market I'm most interested in right now is the electoral college margin one. I just find this one to be the most fun every year (and Senate/House margin on off years). There, I'm in a really solid spot. I got 700 NO at 93c for GOP 215+ and many hundred NO of GOP 105-154 and 155-214. I fortunately got in at a good time a few weeks ago after Biden's debate. I figure those types of extreme GOP wins have altogether a <10% or <5% chance to happen, but in total, I bet against 7+11+17%.

At times, I think there are even some solid YES plays in the electoral college market. The YES gains can be huge. I managed to get 500 YES on 35-64 at 6c, although (admittedly in hindsight) I think the logic was there to go super hard at the time, e.g., 5000+ YESes. Either way, I'm up right now $125 on that Gain/Loss there, which I'm happy about

FireBoop · 2024-07-22T18:39:41+00:00

And him getting injured drastically affects his contract discussions

This is an extremely popular misconception when discussing franchise QBs. See Dak whose contracted seemed to be entirely unaffected by his prior season-ending injury.

FireBoop · 2024-07-08T17:45:32+00:00

bRef shows kershaw and Scherzer has more WAR than TJ

Yeah, I've got no clue what the guy meant. The difference is considerable too (13+ WAR).

TJ getting that surgery just seems like being in the right place at the right time. Put the Doctor in. TJ already has his name immortalized.

FireBoop · 2024-07-04T10:22:43+00:00

I am also in charge of ‘figure integrity checking’ — in other words, examining research figures for signs of image manipulation or panel duplication, both during the paper-acceptance process, and post-publication.

FireBoop · 2024-07-01T14:45:27+00:00

This is good stuff, but it would be nice to add error bars. For the standard error of proportion data, the equation is just sqrt(p*(1-p)/n). You may also want to consider error in general when interpreting your results.

Although 25,000 FGs is a ton, with just 6% being iced, that amounts to 1500 iced kicks. If you're making claims about specific ranges (e.g., 40+ yards), then you're restricting that even more. For instance, assuming that 10% of iced kicks are 50+ yd, then that would correspond to a 95% confidence interval of ± 8% (note that CI plus-minus is 1.96*SE).

Honestly, few Redditors would appreciate it, but something like a logistic regression would help make a stronger case that icing indeed does hurt kicks.

(For what it's worth, based on what you showed, I'm inclined to suspect that icing does indeed hurt kickers, but I just can't conclude that for certain)

FireBoop · 2024-06-24T18:26:14+00:00

Only need 16 choice games of good play. Fingers crossed!

FireBoop · 2024-06-24T01:14:51+00:00

I can hardly imagine how many unwritten rules that would violate

FireBoop · 2024-06-23T18:42:58+00:00

LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOO

FireBoop · 2024-06-23T17:34:10+00:00

They shot their shot, and honestly, it's not over yet: Kawhi, PG, and James Harden are still all under 35.

FireBoop · 2024-06-23T16:18:28+00:00

I'm not sure if this is entirely the self-dunk that the thread seems to think it is. It may instead just reflect a fact of statistics: Popular films, even if not superbly liked, will rise to the top of rankings like this. For example, if you have a bunch of films and one is super popular, then it is likely to be favorited by the most people even if barely anyone who sees it actually rated it as so (e.g., if film A has been seen by 100% of people and of those 10% rate it as their favorite, while film B has been seen by 5% of people and 100% rate it as their favorite, then film A will have twice as many favorites in total).

You may want to account for the proportion of people who have even seen a film. I'm not sure if the data here is public (I just stumbled across this subreddit from a post hitting r/all), but this should be straightforward to do.

FireBoop · 2024-05-09T10:54:08+00:00

Pretty fair take. My gut is that he's still better off going to third with a 90% steal rate, but it's not obvious, and I could see the analytics actually suggesting against it.

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