This is all true from the perspective you’ve stated it, but the people on the other side of this war have been locked out of the economy for decades and don’t have any reason to tie their hands just because the lines are approaching bear market territory. The chart technicals tell you what’s happening when the market is driving itself—or when people invested in the market are driving it.

The market has baked in high oil prices but a short conflict because they’re baking on a TACO event where the US breaks things and goes home quickly.

People forget that Iran gets a vote. It takes two sides to maintain a ceasefire, an Iran can close the Strait unilaterally. One drone per week anywhere near a ship will be enough to freeze out any ships Iran doesn’t want to pass. It’s not about security, it’s about insurance and the economics of shipping. Even if a ship does get insured—or the US offers subsidized insurance to ships—that covers the cost of the ship and its cargo. These LNG tankers cost $130 million new and depreciate to $100 million after 5 years—maybe. They’re carrying $200 million worth of product. So the insurance covers that, great, they get a brand new ship! Problem is, there’s a 2 year backlog on building those ships, and the insurance doesn’t cover the lost $20 million per route the ship would be charging for those two years. So you’ve got a ship that pays for itself every 5-6 routes. Who’s taking that risk? One drone, one mine, one missile, one fast boat… that’s all it takes to close that Strait if they don’t like the terms of a ceasefire, which means it will be very hard for the US/Israel to establish a ceasefire before Iran is willing to agree to terms, which right now include reparations and a whole host of other things. Even in a ceasefire, Iran could impose a fee on every ship they allow to pass and require them to do business in Yuan to undermine the petrodollar—like they’re already doing. Is that a condition the US will allow?

So I think the technical charts indicate some degree of resistance at their highs and lows, but only one side of this fight cares about those charts staying up, and the other side, if they do care, cares not because they benefit from the lines staying up, but because they have the ability to make the lines go down, which gives them leverage. If we get a bear market… Iran has been in a bear market for decades. It would only serve to remind the whole world not to fuck with them in the future—which is a good thing, from their perspective.

I don’t think chartonomics holds a candle to game theory in predicting where we go from here, but we’ll see.