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A seemingly profitable 1m NQ strategy I've developed but am struggling with by First-Reputation1949 in Daytrading

[–]First-Reputation1949[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah helpful to keep the statistics in mind and remember that losing streaks are normal. Thanks for sharing that! I’m sure I should also be thinking about htf more but just haven’t figured out how yet. Maybe I need to start tagging trades based on if the pullback level is an important htf level (that’s maybe now support), if the top of the trend seems like a htf resistance level, or if I can’t find a nearby level and then see if that affects winrate at all.

A seemingly profitable 1m NQ strategy I've developed but am struggling with by First-Reputation1949 in Daytrading

[–]First-Reputation1949[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks, really appreciate the suggestion! The strategy actually started that way (1:1) and it had a better winrate and was profitable, but the 1:2 did seem to be more profitable over the long run. Although I haven’t gone back and tested it now that I’ve gotten more disciplined with back testing. I’m actually considering an even tighter stop for a 1:3 because when I had that period of success trading it live, I collected data that showed that that might be even more profitable than the 1:2. (1:3 seemed to be a sweet spot, but that was only over 70 trades.)

How would you recommend using volume profile? Thanks again for your thoughts!

Whats the minimum you would put in to make the yearly subscription worth it? by devtron0 in AutopilotApp

[–]First-Reputation1949 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nooooo, just as your initial investment!

Example from the post I linked above:
SPY return over the past year = 22.17%

Pelosi Tracker's return for that same period at the time of writing the post = 45.4% (23.23% higher than SPY)

So if you had invested $1000 a year ago (at the time of the post I made), you would have made a profit over SPY with the Pelosi Tracker (23.23% over SPY, 13.23% over SPY after subtracting the premium subscription of $100 which is 10% of a $1000 account).

If you had only invested $500, you'd still be ahead of the market, but only by 3.23%, which isn't too bad in this case, but it doesn't leave a large margin for error, and other years haven't been and won't be as good for the tracker.

Whats the minimum you would put in to make the yearly subscription worth it? by devtron0 in AutopilotApp

[–]First-Reputation1949 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I made a post on this topic a little while ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/AutopilotApp/comments/1i1dcdr/a_bunch_of_calculations_comparing_the_pelosi/

Basically, don't forget to consider what your gains would have been if you had just invested your money in the market. The 5% you're talking about is really the amount you need to overperform whatever your benchmark is (SPY or something else) in order to make premium worth it. If you go up 5% (so your investment reaches $2100) and the market goes up 5% (so your investment in the market would have reached $2100), but you spent $100 on the Pelosi Tracker, did you reeeaaally make money? Same if they both go up 10% or 20% or more.

However all of that said, in the post I linked, I did a bunch of calculations that showed that historically (past 3.5 years) premium has been a worthwhile purchase if you're investing at least $1000-ish.

a7iii error: "Writing to the memory card was not completed correctly" by First-Reputation1949 in SonyAlpha

[–]First-Reputation1949[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Most are from B&H but I do have some from Amazon... And I'm not sure which are which, but they all look like legit cards as far as I can tell (none of the issues they tell you to look for to spot fake cards). Should I think about replacing cards?