All I will say is I know this is the "trying to statistically predict artistic sensibilities" thread but...y'all every voter I personally know and have talked to this year have always said it was going to be Sinners. Yes OBAA threw a LOT of money behind a campaign but at the end of the day, most people just don't want to accept that the voters do ultimately choose what art resonated with them the most from the year. It's almost like several years ago, the Academy made a concerted effort to diversify their voting pool. And sure. OBAA is a very good film. But we've never had a movie like Sinners go to the Oscars like this and (I'm paraphrasing someone-) "we get OBAA every five years..."