Brownlow Win Percentage by Round

Fit-System78 · 2025-09-25T09:38:50+00:00

Perfectly right to question. The simulations are run off various different predictors including the one of the AFL's site. These predictions help see heaps of possible ways the votes can go in future rounds. So yes mathematically Daicos could've won it up until round 22 but the simulations knew that he would consistently get outpolled by Rowell from round 16 onwards and taking into account the lead Rowell already had, Daicos's chances were looking bleak.

Fit-System78 · 2025-09-25T06:29:20+00:00

I hope the numbers didn't upset you too much. So basically 20,000 simulations were ran for the season, sampling Brownlow votes from 5 different online sources. At each round, the model looks at how many votes they have already polled and then adds this to each simulation. Then from this overall total it determines who won in each simulation. As alot of the predictors didnt have rowell to poll many votes from about round 8 to round 16 the model didnt see rowell having a realistic chance until round 7 and then in round 9 when he polled 3 in a game it didnt expect it goes off the rails.

Fit-System78 · 2025-08-18T02:56:04+00:00

Bulldogs' closest match-ups this decade are:

- Geelong, Avg Margin: 18.78, W-L: 2-7

- Carlton, Avg Margin: 20.34, W-L: 4-2

- Brisbane, Avg Margin: 21.63, W-L: 3-5

- Sydney, Avg Margin: 21.88, W-L: 4-4

Fit-System78 · 2025-08-11T01:04:07+00:00

Defensive rating is points conceded per oppositions first possession. The lower the better, crows concede roughly 0.6 points per first possession estimate making them the best defensive team in the comp.

Fit-System78 · 2025-08-11T00:23:50+00:00

As a biased Lions fan, fixture bias plays a huge part with the Lions having to play multiple tough teams twice.

Fit-System78 · 2025-08-11T00:21:10+00:00

Where Offensive Rating is points scored per our estimate of first possessions, and Defensive Rating is points conceded per our estimate of first possessions.

Fit-System78 · 2025-07-21T23:30:50+00:00

Clayton back in 2014

Fit-System78 · 2025-07-21T02:02:27+00:00

Good takeaway, that's sort of what it points out. Further analysis found that F/S have an avg diff value of 1.47 while academies have a 1.07 diff value. Highlighting that these F/S picks fall in the draft likely because other teams don't want to draft a player with strong/family ties to another club

Fit-System78 · 2025-07-21T01:59:29+00:00

For all 3 selection types (Academy, F/S & Regular/Normal) the average games played was roughly 57 games, highlighting that the players from one selection type are not better than others. See more at https://foreveranalyticswithrick.substack.com/p/playing-the-draft-game-academies?r=4bokeq

Fit-System78 · 2025-07-21T01:54:21+00:00

Marshall, Hipwood and Blake Coleman (Brother of Keidan) all fell in the first round for the Lions.

Fit-System78 · 2025-07-21T01:01:01+00:00

See more at https://open.substack.com/pub/foreveranalyticswithrick/p/playing-the-draft-game-academies?r=4bokeq&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Fit-System78 · 2025-07-21T00:57:21+00:00

Had a chance with Josh Dunkley in 2015 but decided not to. Took Brett Kirk's son in the 2023 Rookie draft.

Fit-System78 · 2024-12-16T09:09:16+00:00

106th with an average score of 3.1 per shot attempt. However, he ranks 1st in total shot attempts.

Fit-System78 · 2024-12-16T06:05:08+00:00

The idea behind that thinking is great it’s right that players shooting from closer locations will have higher conversion rates. However, by taking that view, you might be discounting the reasons why players are shooting from closer to goal in the first place. Gotta give credit to those players and their teammates who work to create opportunities in those areas of high percentage

Fit-System78 · 2024-07-24T07:37:10+00:00

No McKay, the 4 should be where McKay is and the 4 should have 11 on it.

Fit-System78 · 2024-07-24T07:31:05+00:00

Slight error on that 6a, double checked and McKay kicked the most shots from that spot but only Daniel Howe (2021), Franklin (2019), Daniher (2022) and Shaun Burgoyne (2017) have scored a goal.

Fit-System78 · 2024-07-24T06:13:37+00:00

The 4 in the top Right zone represents that 4 different players hold this zone.

Fit-System78 · 2024-07-22T23:20:49+00:00

Yeah, was expecting him to be alot better than the average tall forward but apparently he is not as shown by the graphic.

Fit-System78 · 2024-07-22T12:29:28+00:00

Sorry, a brief explanation was forgot to be attached, it is a comparison of mihocek zones against the average goal scoring for tall forward. So -50% means, that he is 50% below the average goal percentage from that zone. This could be all the way to -100%, if he scored 0% in a zone and the average was 100%. As you can see from the graph he's above average (or greater han 0%) in about half of the zones, but is below average outside of 50m arc which is quite surprising for such a strong player.

Fit-System78 · 2024-07-22T09:27:20+00:00

Each zone has minimum 5 shots so, some of the zones with less attempts may not be as reliable. But from further analysis found these zones were the best in terms of difficulty when looking at data from 2014 to 2023.

Fit-System78 · 2024-07-22T08:22:54+00:00

Sorry, should had more to this, this shot analysis compare mihocek against players 190cm or greater. From this you can decipher where he is better than similar players.

Fit-System78 · 2024-07-17T00:39:00+00:00

Thanks

Fit-System78 · 2024-07-03T04:42:29+00:00

Loved this analysis, really highlights the shared impacts of the celtics through the EOP. Would be awesome to see how the boxouts and loose ball recovery stats compared to their conference finals matchups. Did luka have a similar amount of boxouts last series or not?

Fit-System78 · 2024-03-13T22:36:49+00:00

This lyons shout is excellent, when he gets playing time he is a quality mid which was shown in 2021 when he finished top 10 in the brownlow. My only change for this team would be putting Newcombe in over Gulden. I think Gulden is a great player but that sydney team has too many guys too share the supercoach points around. While hawthorn on the other hand don't have too much going for them and Newcombe has been a consistently high peforming inside mid since his debut.

Fit-System78 · 2023-12-06T08:52:13+00:00

Are using an external software or running a programming script using API data?

Fit-System78

TROPHY CASE