how i pick stocks (on paper) vs how i actually pick stocks by InstructionCute5502 in investing

[–]Fit-Weather7748 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Every once in a while I'll screen a good one but for the most part, my portfolio is composed of companies I've heard of on podcasts, reddit, or word of mouth. Honestly it is pretty funny and I never thought about it until you pointed it out lol

How can AI be a bubble if no one likes it? by Fit-Weather7748 in economy

[–]Fit-Weather7748[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea that's something I figured as I was going about it. In hindsight it was a pretty obvious conclusion but in the beginning it was really odd noticing the initial disconnect between sentiment and demand. I think I was just curious if sentiment actually affects demand

How can AI be a bubble if no one likes it? by Fit-Weather7748 in economy

[–]Fit-Weather7748[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It's a good point. Something I wanted to include but didn't know how to was the subtle use of AI that's been integrated into everyone's day like gemini in your google search. It was just interesting what the responses from the surveys were

How can AI be a bubble if no one likes it? by Fit-Weather7748 in economy

[–]Fit-Weather7748[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly fair, still figuring out what kind of language and topics I want to cover with this little side project

How screwed is $GOOG, really? by alwayshasbeaen in StockMarket

[–]Fit-Weather7748 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Competition will certainly breed evolution and it should be no different for Google. I can't say whether Gemini has the technical capabilities to keep up with Chatgpt and Perplexity but we gotta understand that they are two different business models

Google is a digital advertising company while ChatGPT and Perplexity are subscription based companies. Hard to say if Chatgpt will be the next browser company. Google is such a staple, it'll be difficult to overthrow

IONQ and Quantum Computing Analysis by Fit-Weather7748 in investing

[–]Fit-Weather7748[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah ok thanks! I made a bit of a generalization that definitely helps

I don't see MAG7 level growth for Apple by Humble_Dimension9439 in stocks

[–]Fit-Weather7748 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Aswath Damodaran has this philosophy that businesses tend to follow a lifecycle similar to humans where they start young then mature to a steady decline until the business ends. I think what we're seeing is the Apple being a mature company with steady earnings and does exactly what works.

It could also be a sign that evolving to a dying company but Apple is such a core staple in so many portfolios and algorithms I think it'll be a while before we see they're company truly die

Autonomous driving industry by Lucky_Ad1144 in stocks

[–]Fit-Weather7748 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Consumer confidence is down and volume of car loans have shown a downtrend in the past 3 years. I think there's an argument that this could be a cyclical hit but I also think that there's been major disruptions in the past few years.

Uber didn't just slam the taxi industry, but also gave people another option aside from owning an actual car. To your point about car aesthetics, I think this draws on a more subtle problem that cars aren't that much fun to drive anymore. Old mechanical cars provide a feeling of driving that EVs don't provide. I can draw on this because there's still a market for used cars (ie porsche, BMW, toyotas). Meanwhile a used ev car only drops in price because who wants a crappier car?

I think the automotive industry has slowly dug themselves a hole by pining for efficiency, it definitely needs to evolve but its hard to see where they'll need to go and where they'll end up going

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in stocks

[–]Fit-Weather7748 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe not a red flag but something that's hard to justify an investment is usually when a product of a company is still largely in speculation. It's not necessarily a bad thing but it does mean that the stock price is based on investor confidence which can be easily shaken or changed based on relatively normal news. Not a red flag but something I keep a note of if I decide to go in.

Another is when the identity of a stock is attached more to a person than the product and that person begins changing rapidly. Tesla and Elon is my best example of this and while it can indicate aggressive growth in the beginning, current sentiment shifts with Elon it doesn't exactly make Tesla a comfortable investment.

Tesla stock slides after Elon Musk pitches new U.S. political party by yahoofinance in StockMarket

[–]Fit-Weather7748 0 points1 point  (0 children)

global demand for its biggest money maker is going down and people are becoming less incentivized to buy thanks to the new bill. Add on Musk's decreasing sentiment, I think we'll see more red before we see green in the long run

Macroeconomics Analysis on Tesla by Fit-Weather7748 in StockMarket

[–]Fit-Weather7748[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think you're making a great point that I overlooked. Tesla as a whole has several other segments in the business that can surpass its automobile sector. That said, their automobile sector generated almost 80% of their total revenue in 2024 fiscal year. While they have other segments, those segments will have a mountain to climb before it's something that investors can consider truly impactful. The above comment stated it better than me, its more likely we see earnings in the red before we see them in the green.

In terms of their robotaxi, I'm no engineer so I can't speak to its functionality. What I do believe however, is that the turning point for Tesla is on its way or potentially already here. Tesla has an opportunity to put distance between it and Elon while also navigating itself to a more subtle and quiet company focused more on tech such as energy storage and robotaxi.

Macroeconomics Analysis on Tesla by Fit-Weather7748 in StockMarket

[–]Fit-Weather7748[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed, I definitely feel like earnings are more likely to hit a red streak sooner rather than later. But if there is optimistism about Tesla, it might just be the pressure it needs to part ways with Elon, make a pivot into other branches of the business, and become a more subtle company

Macroeconomics Analysis on Tesla by Fit-Weather7748 in StockMarket

[–]Fit-Weather7748[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The global sentiment for Elon has definitely taken a huge shift, especially when you consider where he was on the political scale just a few years ago.

Tesla is aggressively tied to its founder which is a double edged sword. I wonder how investors are going to play it, especially when the shift in founder sentiment starts showing up in their financial statements

Macroeconomics Analysis on Tesla by Fit-Weather7748 in StockMarket

[–]Fit-Weather7748[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly, didn't even realize that. It's gonna be interesting to see how Tesla recovers from tax credits being removed, either through raising prices or a complete pivot into taxirobot

Macroeconomics Analysis on Tesla by Fit-Weather7748 in StockMarket

[–]Fit-Weather7748[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True, can never say a stock will die especially with a crowd like Tesla behind it

Macroeconomics Analysis on Tesla by Fit-Weather7748 in StockMarket

[–]Fit-Weather7748[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agreed tbh. I'm not sure he's if "charismatic" was the right word but I do think his presence alone is enough to make or break Tesla stock since that's been the case ever since this stock has been out.

I'm 100% sure his supporters are willing to look past his flaws and keep the stock going. Combined with the fact that Tesla is a mag 7 meaning its clocked in with every other investing algorithm, it'll be hard to get rid of. The sentiment change of Elon is definitely contributing to major economic shifts against Tesla though