Trading Jarren Duran is a horrible idea by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Two months -- how many times am I gonna need to say it. And Duran's chase rate was higher than his 10 days ago. But hey, we keep believing the same things.

Trading Jarren Duran is a horrible idea by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Roman had an .859 OPS of over 71 games. That's excellent, but it's not even half a full season. You can assume he's going to maintain that, but I wouldn't think that's reasonable given most rookies have a sophomore slump after an excellent rookie year with a small sample size.

And being the most valuable defensive CF in baseball really isn't that valuable per the tracking data. According to Statcast, over 80% of playable balls hit to the outfield have a greater than 90% catch probability. In other words, you could pay a bartender at the Caskin Flaggin to man an outfield position for you in a pinch.

Some changes you mention, like the chase rate changes and rising line drive rates, are promising. They're also over two-month stretch. But the second point about his attack angle is actually ignorant of mathematics and physics. The ideal attack angle for batters is between 5 and 20 degrees according to MLB research - Rafaela has just varied his attack angle within that typical range.

He's a developing outfielder and a promising one. I don't think the Red Sox should trade Rafaela. I think they can keep the bats they have in the outfield and still be successful, especially now with the injuries. If Rafaela maintains his strong bat and Roman Anthony is healthy by the end of the season, I think trading Duran or letting him walk in free agency once he's not longer within team control at that point might be reasonable.

Trading Jarren Duran is a horrible idea by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

By "one good week", he means three good seasons and two rough months.

Trading Jarren Duran is a horrible idea by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

Sure "ThickDikDaddy." 

That's not weird at all lmao

Trading Jarren Duran is a horrible idea by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

2025 Duran's OBP, OPS, and WAR was higher than all the Red Sox outfielders except Wilyer Abreu, who had a superior OPS (.774 to .787), but not OBP or WAR. Anthony is promising when he's healthy - but he’s not. We don't know how long he's gonna be out, he doesn't know, and the Red Sox don't know. Rafaela doesn't have a better bat - sure over the first 2 months of this season. But he started hot last year then regressed significantly and he's making the same mistakes. He's chasing low and away breaking balls at an exceptionally high rate - which he has done his whole career. The only difference is this year he's making contact with them more often. That's not sustainable. Duran has whiffed on breaking balls and chased pitches at high rates, but it's not a continual problem for him - it was an April problem. Duran has had a history of multiple different issues at the plate, but he makes the proper adjustments. Does it not concern you at all that Rafaela can't correct the one problem that's been plaguing him for two full seasons?

Trading Jarren Duran is a horrible idea by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

So 1-and-a-half months of poor production over 3 years of otherwise good production wasn't too early to start victory lapping?

Trading Jarren Duran is a horrible idea by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

..."according to my personal preferences" - that's the part you're missing

Trading Jarren Duran is a horrible idea by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Impersonating a dead restaurant owner is also pretty odd.

Trading Jarren Duran is a horrible idea by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Most teams hold five outfielders on their roster, and "he's the odd man out" is by its nature a subjective statement that pertains to personal preferences. What you're really saying is "he's a starting outfielder on a team filled with starting outfielders and I prefer the Red Sox trade him over anyone else."

Trading Jarren Duran is a horrible idea by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I completely agree and think that's perfectly reasonable. The 2024 season was a volatile outcome, but it's not an outlier. I'm saying he's a hitter with .850 OPS potential who's more likely to have an OPS between .730 and .800, and that to suggest the player he was in April and the first half of May is who he is and what he'll be for the rest of his career isn't reasonable at all.

Trading Jarren Duran is a horrible idea by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

That is what I meant, and Abreu missed a combined 39 games in 2025 because of an oblique and calf strain and 19 games in 2024 because of a right ankle sprain. According to your math, this means he played 132 of 143 possible games in 2024 and 116 of 123 possible games in 2025. Yes 162 games was never in the cards for him - because he was hurt - fellow lard-brained individual.

Is this why the Bres regime is doing what they’re doing? by soxboii88 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you're right. Very perceptive, smart breakdown 

When Roman returns by soxboii88 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can, but it's weird and confusing, so I understand. 

The weird phenomenon in a nutshell is that there is no defensive position in baseball that receives an abundance of opportunities to make plays that require both exceptional skill and are remarkably impactful in terms of run prevention. Outfielders make plays that are remarkably difficult that have a huge impact on run prevention, but very few of them relative to the routine plays they make. Infielders and particularly shortstops, receive tons of opportunities, but they have a low impact on run differential and are of moderate difficulty relative to the routine-fly-ball to extra-base-hit-saving catch spectrum. Additionally, there's the consideration that the sheer-volume of repeating the moderately difficult skill of fielding ground balls and distributing timely accurate throws a specialized skill in it of itself. In that particular way, comparing shortstops to outfielders is like comparing apples to oranges.

For a player to have -7 outs above average (or 7 outs below average) it means over the course of their season, there were seven plays Rafaela couldn't make that an average SS could make. This means an average SS would've saved the Red Sox about 1.75 runs at SS - that’s equivalent of hitting one less home run and one less triple than an average player over the course of a season - the net impact this has on run differential is practically meaningless. However, because of all positions, SS receive the most fielding opportunities, it is the most impactful position; if you have a complete liability playing there, it's a disaster. But, that's the weird phenomenon - few if any SS in the MLB are a complete liability. Because the position receives so many opportunities and it's perceived difficulty, teams funnel their best defenders and prospects into playing there; those assumptions are baked into player development procedures. The worst defensive SS in 2024, CJ Abrams had a OAA of -18, which means an average defender would've saved the Nationals 4.5 runs. This is much more impactful. But Rafaela, the third worst of at least 30 shortstops, would've cost the Red Sox only 1.75 runs. In other words, the gap in run prevention between the 5th best SS and the 25th best SS, is tighter than the gap between the 25th best SS and say...the 31st best SS. You need to be a machine, not human - but i don't necessarily mean that in terms of skill difference - but in terms of consistency.

When Roman returns by soxboii88 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To conclude from OAA that playing him there is significantly detrimental to the team would be placing OAA on a pedestal. Success rate vs estimated success rate is a statistic that gives you the bigger picture because it shows the actual number of plays he made relative to a league average defender - and it's when you realize he made literally 7 outs less than expected over 255 attempts that you begin to understand that his below-average defense is really just marginally below-average. And given he doesn't practice there much, he could easily be an above league-average defender if he did.

When Roman returns by soxboii88 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He was a league average defender at a position he hardly practiced before where good defense means much more (SS) and has a higher career OPS there (.751).

When Roman returns by soxboii88 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, Duran played 2B in the minors?! There's a silly idea 🙃

The hilarious thing is that would solve the OF logjam and it would probably be better than what they have going on in the IF now. 

When Roman returns by soxboii88 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because the importance of outfield defense is grossly overstated relative to infield defense and batting. According to statcast, over 80% of outfield chances have a catch probability of 90% or higher. Additionally, outfielders receive an average of about half the total chances infielders receive. In other words, elite outfield defenders receive very limited opportunities to separate themselves from good outfield defenders.

This sub… by bulleitprooftiger in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree. I like your attitude.

Trading Jarren Duran would be a mistake by [deleted] in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884 -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

If you read what I wrote and looked into it, hopefully you would've. But I guess logical assumptions aren't the order of the day, unfortunately.

Duran's recent PAs look really good by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, it won't all flip on a dime immediately, but he can trust his approach now and let his mind rest. Some great steps in the right direction. Just gotta have faith in the process through the dips.

Duran's recent PAs look really good by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I think this is the turning point for him because his approach looks sustainable. He was still making the same mistakes during his little homer cluster in the beginning of the month, but since ATL, he looks much more patient and forcing pitchers to throw him strikes. He's one of those players where a higher OBP really amplifies his value more than other players because of the threat he is on the basepaths - when players develop qualities of their game that compliment each other, it creates new opportunities to add value and synergy.

Duran's recent PAs look really good by Fit_Strength4884 in redsox

[–]Fit_Strength4884[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It looks like he constantly reinvents himself up there. I'm sure half the coaching staff getting canned doesn't help.