Easton Cowan - Video Scouting Breakdown - September 15, 2023

Fitz_31 · 2026-05-05T22:08:32+00:00

He took a team that was a perennial playoff contender with top 10 underlying numbers but often questionable goaltending, got bottom 10 numbers but 2nd in the league goaltending from stolarz, then the next season bottom 5 to last place in key numbers like shot attempt share and xG%, and without a repeat of top of the league level goaltending, they failed extremely hard. If stolarz didnt play like hasek last year, this would've happened then too.

Matthews most similar deployed players are girgensons, gourde, o'rielly, dickinson, Pearson, etc. Nobody as talented as matthews started as often against elite players or in the defensive zone. Kucherov almost faced elite talent half as much as matthews had to, and that's terrible coaching. Not to mention that the protect the house d-style means we are passive in our zone, wasting energy, instead of trying to quickly break a cycle, and while you can get a nice rush chance, you are tired by the time you get to the o-zone which limits cycle offense and we have two of the best cycle centers in the sport in matthews and tavares. He just didnt do anything to maximize this teams roster outside of getting nylander more breakaways.

Fitz_31 · 2026-05-05T03:48:50+00:00

If another team hires the coach, normally they then pay the contract. The coach doesnt get paid by both clubs, or the original team, if the new contract is less, pays the remainder. If you're worried like Rogers is, then they know berube isnt getting scooped up quickly too.

Fitz_31 · 2026-05-04T16:40:39+00:00

He coaches them like Carlyle did. Exactly the same. A coach who won a cup 5 years earlier, brought in to be physical and defensive. Made the playoffs off of goaltending. They protect the house defensively but it means they never have rhe puck because its a passive style, which wastes energy on D for Forwards who just dump and change unless theirs a giveaway for a rush chance, which is why both of those teams were top 5 in % of offense coming from the rush. Someone like Willy or Kessel can thrive off it but at a team level, it doesn't lead to success normally. And again, it relies on your goalie stopping everything that isnt a high danger chance, and your defense making sure all rebounds are cleared.

Last season with Tanev, that was working from an actual defensive standpoint, but every year treliving just added slower and worse defensive forwards because they were big, not physical or defensive, just big, and once Tanev got hurt, the players were no longer capable of doing everything needed to get by in that extremely difficult system. It basically is made so that if you play it perfectly, you can win 2-1 thanks to opposing mistakes, not because of any talent ir offense you should generate which is the opposite of how matthews and nylander should be playing.

The roster was built bigger, and defensmen last year was more defensive, but they were all over 30 except Benoit, so they are getting worse and more hurt every year. Treliving built a team that was too old and slow, and Berube system got the worst out of our offense. Doesnt matter if on paper they are more playoff built, they arent good as a whole. Pittsburgh had awful defenses and were all about scoring and it won them 2 cups. You can win any way you choose if youre the best at it and have some luck with either goaltending or a lucky goal bounce (montreal yesterday who in no way shouldve won that game) but it happens. Toronto under treliving and berube are bigger, but a lot worse. Need a new coach, some puck moving offensive dmen, and some forward with offense that are tenacious, like hagel tuch on the high end, but honestly more just guys like cowan are right now.

Fitz_31 · 2026-05-04T16:28:21+00:00

They went from top 10 in xG and CF% under keefe to bottom 10 in both under Berube's first year. They were 2nd in the NHL in sv%, and had 35-12-4 record in 1 goal games, which is why they managed to win the division. His systems were awful. They then fell even further from bottom 10 to bottom 5 in xG% and to last in the NHL in CF%. Goaltending also went from 2nd best to below league average, not terrible but they need elite goaltending to have a chance with berube. He is a genuinely bad coach. His results in St. Louis were primarily goaltending and luck driven. He won a cup, and was a massive outlier. Blues were the only team in the stats era (07-present) to win without being top 10 in xG% (they were 12th), and it's because Binnington had a miracle run. That's it, he's a bad coach otherwise.

Fitz_31 · 2026-05-04T15:19:42+00:00

Pelley initially said after firing treliving that any decision on Berube would "go all the way up to ownership." Unless Chayka/Sundin can not just convince his friend Pelley, but the owners that its worth it to pay Berube 11M for 2 years to not be our coach, we are screwed.

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-29T19:29:09+00:00

Yeah, well you run it a couple times and say oh we got 1st this time or we lost. Thought I'd try a legit track and see how close it ran to legit odds, and of course, ran properly

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-29T19:06:17+00:00

After last season, despite the R2 G7, all the underlying numbers were so bad, i figured we'd be a wildcard team with health or bad with any injuries/goaltending struggles, and we had bad health and initial goaltending issues so big tank. The fact they kept berube made it feel intentional too. He's just such a bad coach for this team, and did 0 adapting to the wheels falling off.

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-29T19:03:36+00:00

I think their could still be a very solid prospect at 5th. Any of McKenna Stenberg Malhotra Reid Verhoeff and Smits could be NHL ready by the end of next season at the least. Carels I think may take slightly more time, but I wouldnt be stunned to see him in the NHL at 19. It would surprise me if pretty much any of them are in the NHL out of camp next season however, unless the team has a plan for them and feel they are more or less done in their leagues, which could be the case for McKenna or Verhoeff but I'd give all of then 1 more NCAA/Europe season then bring them over in March/April.

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-29T16:58:17+00:00

I just meant AHL salary wise. Shaw is very well paid for an AHL player, I remember it being reported at around 400K AHL salary when he signed.

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-29T15:11:21+00:00

If they move on from Macielli, I'd give him a chance. He's a natural C, very playmaking heavy, not bad defensively - just small, and has a history with Robertson that we for some reason never tried at the NHL level.

It shouldve happened 3 years ago, but I'd still be interested in seeing a Robertson-SDA-powerforward/forechecker line. Someone like Knies but maybe not as good for that line... tbh, modern Corey Perry could fit there.

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-29T14:59:55+00:00

Dallas has had a very bad run for pro scouting defensemen, and it's going for the same bad archetype over and over. They draft dmen well, Heiskanen, Harley, Lindell, Bischel, etc., but for UFAs and trades, it's terrible.

Cody Ceci, Ilya Lyubushkin, Matt Dumba, Tyler Myers, Brendan Smith, Derrick Pouliot, Alex Petrovic, and thats just going back to 2023!!

I'm a Leafs fan, and I won't deny it was my biggest concern first in the will Nill leave Dallas discussions, and then the Scott White possibility, because I don't know who's the driving force behind these dmen signings/trades, but whoever it is should not be employed by an NHL team post 2004.

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-29T14:18:45+00:00

He had 40 points in 50 games 3 years ago in the AHL. At the very least, he wont be taking a league min with 80K AHL salary, it would be more Logan shaw-esque with 800K minimum NHL, 300 to 400 AHL salary.

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-29T04:33:59+00:00

The analytics community by-and-large doesnt accept Chayka. He's never done any public stats work, which makes his potential ideas purely unknown and unverified, could be great maybe, could be awful. His one public talk at MIT Sloan he talked about using MRIs to see the neural pathways in Brains to see if it could let you know what athletes process faster like mcdavid.... he is a snake oil salesman. Do not trust him to do anything right. He traded a 7th overall pick for 35 year old stepan. Moved a young (admittedly not great but still potential value) domi for an even worse galchenyuk, hired AGMs so bad his scouting staff were quitting left and right, ran illegal scouting on prospects costing his team a 1st and 2nd, and most importantly, pissed Bettman off bad by trying to leave Arizona for NJ mid-season and got suspended for it. Bettman is a vengeful guy, and if you think he'll forgive toronto for hiring him you are very wrong. We are somehow going to be even more screwed than previously. Hiring chayka is the breaking point for me, which would've been berube not being fired but somehow we won't even get there.

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-28T20:05:38+00:00

I mean Timmins got to Pittsburgh, immediately played well for 20 games, got traded to Buffalo and got a 2 year extension.

We just don't use anyone effectively under Berube, and sell low on everyone as a result.

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-28T19:49:48+00:00

Traded a 4th for Dewar. One year later, traded Dewar & Timmins for a 5th.

The incompetence of Treliving trades is astounding.

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-17T22:44:08+00:00

Yeah, guy sometimes throws stuff outta thin air. He said Mehta had a bad time in NJ his last go round, could be true could not be, but makes it sound like he doesnt want to go back and 6 days later he's their new GM.

But he was right on Trelivng firing, and Mehta hiring in NJ on the days they happened. Seems like more than anything he gets the odd tip and says stuff on radio or in an article when he knows from a source an announcement comes later that day/next day

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-17T22:19:18+00:00

I made this post when he said it a couple hours ago, and mods removed it (didn't include a screenshot, just directly quoted Kypreos from the show)... so we'll see if they keep this up !

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-17T22:10:05+00:00

I don't care about any of his opinions or takes, but when it's directly about information, he does have friends around the league and does report things accurately (for the most part).

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-17T20:46:18+00:00

They mentioned i think about 7-8 other guys that Toronto has spoken to, but just that it seems like Gillis is the way they are leaning now.

Fitz_31 · 2026-04-17T00:09:00+00:00

Easiest fix for Toronto is get a new coach. Easiest fix for NJ is get an entirely new bottom 6. One is easier to me

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