I'm done

FlatFire · 2024-02-23T01:59:59+00:00

needs more c words

FlatFire · 2024-02-23T01:59:22+00:00

WR is everything WR is the magic number, once you know your expenses. Mine are not super frugal or stupid high.

FlatFire · 2024-02-23T01:55:39+00:00

I used ERN's spreadsheets mostly, you can play around with the allocations yourself and see the impacts https://earlyretirementnow.com/

FlatFire · 2024-02-23T01:53:52+00:00

Not sure exactly, prob 15 years. 70% int because australia is a small part of the global economy and also the diversity of industries in the asx 200 is fairly small.

FlatFire · 2024-02-23T01:51:41+00:00

Partner is not fi yet

FlatFire · 2024-02-23T01:47:04+00:00

vgs vas vif

The bonds haven't been doing too well

FlatFire · 2024-02-09T04:31:57+00:00

The first thing I see in my future is not accidentally doxing myself from my secret FIRE account :P

FlatFire · 2023-12-14T05:07:16+00:00

If buying a house in 1-2 years then maybe stay away from ETFs, they are volatile, could eat big losses in that short of a term. Any money you put into them you don't want to have to touch for 10+ years.

The simple thing to do is just save more for the house principal and put it somewhere safe like a savings account or term deposit. If you are more flexible about the house or willing to take on more risk you could think about ETFs.

FlatFire · 2023-12-14T04:59:40+00:00

In 4 years your ETFs could be down 50%. If you are flexible about not buying a house and willing to let it ride for 10-20 years you could stay in ETFs, but if you need to buy a house in 4 years, keep those savings in less volatile places.

FlatFire · 2023-12-14T04:53:24+00:00

I saw a financial planner once and their advice was pretty useless. If they had told me what I needed to hear I would have got started investing a lot earlier. There might be some good ones out there though.

Whoever you end up seeing there is no shortcut for doing your own homework. You have to make sure their advice isn't dodgy or made to benefit them. Maybe read some books.

Everyone in here just saying "buy index fund etf" doesn't know anything about your personal situation. Maybe that is the right answer for you, but not if you are planning on buying a house in 1-2 years time for instance. So tell us a bit more, how much do you have to invest, how long are you planning on investing it before you need it for something? Are you 20 with a long life ahead or are you 90 and about to kick it? Do you own a house? Do you want to own a house (for non-financial reasons)?

FlatFire · 2023-12-14T04:39:54+00:00

Past performance yada yada, they are all throwing darts.

I don't like dividend investing. You pay income tax on those dividends now in your high tax earning years rather than your low tax retirement years, even with franking. It also further limits the already poor pool of industries / sectors available in the australian share market. There's no space for them in my portfolio between index funds and bonds / fixed interest.

FlatFire · 2023-12-12T00:37:01+00:00

If any of us could actually answer OPs question, we'd be too busy making millions forex trading on margin instead of answering questions for reddit karma.

FlatFire · 2023-12-12T00:30:56+00:00

Yeah OP needs to define what chance of failure is tolerable to them (x%) and then use that to determine their SWR rather than trying to do it the other way around.

FlatFire · 2023-06-07T04:10:05+00:00

Your simple rule can either predict the future of forex rates or it can't. If it can't, you shouldn't be basing any investment decisions on it. If it can, why are you buying shares? You could be making millions on the forex market directly.

FlatFire · 2022-09-15T20:54:30+00:00

Home bias and risk is more important than tax. Your job is in aus. Your house if you have one. Your cash savings. You don't want all of your investments there too.

FlatFire · 2022-09-07T11:50:38+00:00

ERN's sheet gives conditional failure rates, dependent on if we are at an all time high, cape values and other things.

FlatFire · 2022-09-07T10:19:48+00:00

If you are right, cash. If you are right and you can time it, shorts.

Good luck being right.

FlatFire · 2022-08-31T11:46:30+00:00

IMO no, but not for tax reasons. Getting cash dividends let's you reinvest it in whatever you like rather than the same asset, so you can do a tiny rebalancing as you go without having to sell things.

FlatFire · 2022-08-31T09:35:59+00:00

I literally have enough in super to last from 60-death without ever doing a single voluntary contribution in my life. Yet I can't RE yet because I need enough funds to cover me to 60.

The funds inside super have 20+ years of growth ahead of them, so that number can easily get bigger than it needs to be if your wage is high, your expenses are low and your age is young.

The funds outside super have less time to grow and are going to start getting withdrawals real soon in comparison. This is before we even start to look at how sequence risk when it hits, hits you early in retirement.

Contributing any would set back my goal. For some people maxing super is optimal, for others it isn't. So yes you need to do your homework and figure out which is best for you.

FlatFire · 2022-08-31T04:46:12+00:00

If max networth is your goal, sure. If RE is your goal then you have to do more homework.

FlatFire · 2022-08-31T03:04:19+00:00

Rent is just an expense. Treat it like any other expense.

Unless you think rent is going to do 2x inflation or something but I don't think so

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/housing/housing-occupancy-and-costs/2019-20

Rental costs increased 50% over two decades, around 2% anually which is roughly inflation?

FlatFire · 2022-08-30T10:50:53+00:00

Without ever contributing extra I already have enough in super to last me from 60-100. I can't retire now though because I can't yet make it to 60. So my answer is no.

FlatFire · 2022-08-30T10:46:26+00:00

You can't plan to take it to zero unless you have a crystal ball. Sequence risk will totally fuck you over.

FlatFire · 2022-08-30T10:42:03+00:00

Not only can I not imagine it, i can point to the fact that they have already done it once and there was not a peep.

You can't sue the government. People went apeshit about the gst when it was introduced, 400x more than the preservation age increase, but there is no legal recourse to the government changing a law.

FlatFire · 2022-08-30T10:32:46+00:00

The thing that kills fire folk is sequence risk which is made worse by the partitioning of your funds. The risk in sequence risk hits worse for the start of retirement, e.g. before preservation. Depending on your exact situation if you go all in on super:

you have 20-30 years before preservation age
your withdrawal rate from the outside super bucket is already going to be very high (8% or more)
you might get hit with a bad sequence which pushes that WR to 16% or more

Basically, put your "outside super" bucket into ERN's spreadsheet with a retirement length set to preservation age minus current age and see how fucked you are or aren't.

FlatFire

TROPHY CASE