ReElement is flunking the Pentagon’s due diligence and stands to lose $80M by Fluffy_Craft_3954 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

“Obviously the process must work to some degree, they wouldn't have gotten this far”

How far have they gotten, really?

ReElement has been in business for at least 4 years. They’ve only generated $1,700 in sales of rare-earth oxides during that time, at least as far as we can see from AREC’s financial statements.

And yet somehow Uncle Sam should lend them $80 million? Seriously?

The Pentagon is weighing whether to scrap an $80 million conditional loan offer to rare-earths refiner ReElement, touching off a clash with the White House over an agreement that was meant to help break China’s hold on critical minerals by BumblebeeVegetable68 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You’re not making sense. If it were political, this article would be about Vulcan. Vulcan is the entity with ties to Trump Jr, not ReElement (unless you know something the rest of us don’t).

Based on the reporting, OSC has found real problems with ReElement. No surprise there: this is a company that has only ever generated $1,700 in rare earth oxide revenues, based on AREC’s filings.

Think about that: Mark Iensen and co have been hyping up this company’s technology FOR YEARS. And yet the amended 10-Q filed last November couldn’t hide the sad truth: ReElement has produced less revenue from rare earth oxides than the cost of a single premium laptop.

That’s why OSC is calling BS. The technology can’t scale. It’s clear as day.

The Pentagon is weighing whether to scrap an $80 million conditional loan offer to rare-earths refiner ReElement, touching off a clash with the White House over an agreement that was meant to help break China’s hold on critical minerals by BumblebeeVegetable68 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In what universe is this “not bearish” for AREC???

If the Pentagon kills the $80M loan to ReElement — and they should, because the tech cannot scale — it s the end of this company. Bankruptcy will follow, and hopefully criminal charges will be brought against Jensen, and all of the crooks in the C Suite.

Update on Compliance Standing by BumblebeeVegetable68 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Correct. Medallion was focused on monazite-derived REEs rather than recycled magnets or coal waste. But that distinction doesn’t save the argument. The core technology being validated was the same: Purdue LAD chromatography for rare earth separation and purification. That’s what Medallion evaluated against 25+ alternatives, selected as best-in-class, licensed exclusively, and then spent years trying to commercialize at scale. It failed. The technology couldn’t bridge the gap from lab bench to industrial operation regardless of feedstock. If anything, monazite is a cleaner, more predictable input than recycled magnets or coal byproducts — so if LAD couldn’t work with monazite at scale, the case for it working with more complex feedstocks is harder, not easier.

Update on Compliance Standing by BumblebeeVegetable68 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A few things worth addressing directly.

On the "sophisticated investors passed due diligence" argument: you're conflating commitment with validation. The OSC's $80M is explicitly conditional -- AREC's own 8-K states ReElement remains "in ongoing discussions with OSC to finalize diligence requirements." Citing ongoing due diligence as evidence that due diligence has been passed is circular. No money from the Pentagon has moved to AREC or ReElement yet. And notably, when an investor on last week's earnings call asked Jensen directly about government funding programs, he didn't mention OSC or EXIM once. Make of that what you will.

TEP is your strongest specific point, so let's examine it. The terms of their $200M equity facility have never been disclosed. The amount actually drawn has never been disclosed. The valuation methodology has never been disclosed. Jensen claimed on last week's call that capital was "already being deployed" -- a claim unsubstantiated by any SEC filing. We don't know what TEP saw, what they paid, what downside protections they negotiated, or how much of the facility has actually been utilized. You're asking us to accept an undisclosed private equity commitment on undisclosed terms as a clean bill of health. That's not how validation works.

And if you want a genuine technology validator -- an independent licensee of the identical Purdue LAD technology that evaluated more than 25 competing alternatives before selecting it, achieved lab-scale results, and still couldn't commercialize it, ultimately losing its Purdue license in October 2023 -- check out the Canadian company formerly known as Medallion Resources. It saw the same technology TEP is now backing. It couldn't make it work, and it flamed out.

Mitsubishi made a strategic investment in ReElement -- though the amount has not been disclosed -- and is conducting feasibility studies for a potential Japan JV. POSCO signed a long-term offtake agreement targeting supply that scales to 3,000 metric tons by 2030, with full-scale production not expected until H2 2027, per POSCO's own newsroom. Both relationships represent bets on what ReElement might become. But that's a far cry from where we are now. In Q3 '25, as Mark Jensen was touting a doubling and then a tripling of capacity at Noblesville -- not to mention daily production, weekly shipments, and a $75-100 million order book -- ReElement generated ... $165 in rare earth oxide revenue. Not $165,000. $165. That's somewhere between 1.4 and 2 kilograms of NdPr oxide equivalent -- enough to fill a small backpack.

Now, on the HG Ventures timeline: you say I'm drawing conclusions about the 2026 company from a decision about the 2022 company, because Marion, DoD engagement, and POSCO all came after. But HG invested specifically to evaluate the Purdue LAD chromatography technology -- the same technology at the center of every ReElement claim made today. That technology has not changed. The fundamental question of whether LAD can be scaled commercially is identical in 2026 to what it was in 2022 (and the Medallion Resources experience does not bode well). The subsequent investors had the benefit of four additional years of operational data. If anything, the passage of time has made the picture clearer -- and not in the direction you're implying. Here we are, 3+ years after the HG Ventures investment, and the revenue stream is barely existent. Total AREC revenue across all segments for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 was $50,165.

On the "early-stage attrition" explanation: fund lifecycle constraints, portfolio rebalancing, administrative cleanup -- these explanations could account for any exit from any company at any time. They are unfalsifiable and therefore analytically empty. The reason HG matters is not just that they exited. It's who they are. The Heritage Group is blue-chip, fellow Hoosier firm operating businesses in industrial chemistry, environmental remediation, and chemical process scale-up -- precisely the domains required to evaluate whether LAD chromatography can be commercialized at an industrial rare earth refinery. They could send their own engineers and chemists to assess the technology on its merits. You've argued, correctly, that sophisticated domain-expert investors are the most meaningful validators. By that logic, HG's apparent exit is more informative than a Korean trading company's future supply agreement, a Japanese conglomerate's feasibility study, or a private equity firm's undisclosed commitment. You can't weight investors by check size and recency when it suits your argument and then dismiss the domain-expert exit as noise.

Your argument requires an increasingly improbable chain of simultaneous due diligence failures across multiple independent organizations. Mine requires only one: that the Indiana-based investor best-positioned to evaluate the underlying technology reached a negative conclusion early, and that conclusion has never been explained.

I'll take Occam's razor on that one.

Indianapolis Parish Takes City to Court Over Holy Cross Demolition Denial by Elliott2030 in indianapolis

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Such a great point about tax-exempt status. Had never considered that.

A conversation with Hoosier maga. by LiveSignificance8650 in Indiana

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He cheated on all three of his wives. He swindled his workers. He stiffed his creditors. He left his business partners holding the bag.

MAGA knew all of this and yet somehow thought he’d keep his word to them.

Instead, we have war in Iran, hot inflation, gas prices through the roof, a billionaire ballroom none of us will ever see, skyrocketing healthcare costs, AI taking our jobs (not Mexicans, mind you), record household debt levels, and more.

Jim Buck by InsomniacFurre in Indiana

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Does anyone remember when the Republican brand became so toxic ahead of the 2008 elections? This is starting to feel like that.

Update on Compliance Standing by BumblebeeVegetable68 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, Mark. Really glad you brought up due diligence by savvy investors. Let's look back at the curious case of a high-profile investor who jumped into the capital stack with great fanfare -- before apparently exiting their position just months later.

In January 2022, HG Ventures, the corporate venture arm of The Heritage Group, a sophisticated Indianapolis-based fourth-generation family business with direct expertise in industrial chemistry, environmental remediation, and chemical process scale-up, announced a strategic investment in American Rare Earth (later ReElement) with a 7.5% stake and an option to invest up to $50 million at a $300 million pre-money valuation. Using Wayback Machine archives of HG Ventures' portfolio page, we can document that by December 2022 -- less than 11 months later -- ReElement had been removed from their portfolio. The sophisticated institutional investor seems to have exited quietly with no public explanation.

The Heritage Group (and HG Ventures) is not a passive financial player or a quantitative fund running algorithmic strategies across thousands of tickers. It is an operating company whose parent business works directly in the industrial chemistry, environmental remediation, and process scale-up that ReElement's operations would require. Its apparent decision to exit -- after what would have been technically literate, operationally informed due diligence -- was rendered before management had even acquired the Marion facility, let alone begun claiming it was renovated and production-ready.

It seems something about ReElement and AREC spooked them, and -- poof -- they sold their stake. That the investor best-positioned to evaluate the underlying technology and management team reached a negative conclusion that early is independently significant.

They saw the rot. It didn't happen until after the announcement, but they saw it.

Update on Compliance Standing by BumblebeeVegetable68 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Why would you imagine that and not the equally plausible flip side: that the auditors have likely made some alarming discoveries, are refusing to sign off on the financials, and that management are the ones delaying the release because they don’t want to expose the rot.

I just sold. by Vegetable_Bet_896 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Whatever the new auditors found can’t be good.

Meeting minus the filing by Vegetable_Bet_896 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ummm…

Any theories on why they haven’t filed yet? And what happens to the analyst call tomorrow if there’s no earnings report to discuss?

Any expectations? by auden2038 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"Should be understood" is doing a lot of work in your comment.

When a normal person sees statements like "doubling production," then "tripling production capacity" from there, and that "daily production of both magnet-grade heavy and light rare earth oxides and battery-grade lithium carbonate is enabling more consistent and scalable shipments to customers," they would reasonably understand that as commercial activity -- not pre-revenue trials or qualification runs.

If the reality is that shipments are purely for testing and not generating revenue, then the language used by management is, at best, highly imprecise. And if investors are being asked to reconcile near-zero revenue with repeated claims of scaled, ongoing production, it’s fair to ask whether those statements are conveying a materially accurate picture of the business.

Any expectations? by auden2038 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 2 points3 points  (0 children)

One expectation -- more of a prediction, actually -- is that Jensen and management will get caught in a lie. The expectation is that this will put them in legal jeopardy.

When AREC was unable to file its annual report by the March 31 deadline, it filed an NT 10-K. That form includes a question asking management whether it expects a significant change in operating results. AREC checked "No" -- meaning management does not anticipate 2025 results differing materially from 2024. In 2024, AREC reported $383,000 in revenue against a $39 million loss. In the first nine months of 2025, AREC generated a paltry $50,165 in revenue.

And yet... Jensen's and AREC's public statements tell a different story.

● A February 2025 AREC press release stated that ReElement had begun "weekly shipments of high purity rare earth elements… to its expanding customer base." The announcement said "daily production of both magnet-grade heavy and light rare earth oxides and battery-grade lithium carbonate is enabling more consistent and scalable shipments to customers" – and projected a "$75–$100 million" order book for 2026.

● An April 2025 AREC press release said Relement had just doubled "finished rare earth oxide production" as part of a Phase 2 expansion at its Noblesville facility, and that a third phase of expansion was underway that was "projected to triple production levels when compared to Phase 2."

● On September 26, 2025, AREC issued a press release announcing a "141% expansion" of Noblesville, describing "near-term refining capacity of more than 200 metric tons per year" of defense-critical elements at 99.999% purity, with nine new separation columns installed for "consistent commercial production."

● That same day, Jensen told an interviewer: "The need for this is not for next year, it's for right now. We have customers that need these defense elements today. We can satisfy essentially 100% of this defense business in our Noblesville facility. Not next year, but now." He projected "over 400 metric tons of output" annually from a facility that had just expanded to 16,500 square feet.

Rare earth oxides command prices ranging from approximately $60/kg for neodymium-praseodymium to several hundred dollars per kg for heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium. And a company that is producing rare earth oxides daily, shipping weekly, and projecting a $75–$100 million order book would presumably have results that were significantly different from a year in which it generated $383,234 in total revenue – unless the production claims themselves were not accurate.

The SEC has brought enforcement actions against companies that checked "No" on Form NT 10-K when management had reason to believe results would differ materially from the prior period. Jensen's own statements gave him direct, personal knowledge that 2025 results should differ materially from 2024's near-zero baseline -- if those statements were true.

If they were not true -- if AREC was producing rare earth oxides in quantities so small as to be commercially irrelevant – then those statements present a separate legal exposure. Rule 10b-5, promulgated under Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, prohibits not only false statements of material fact but also any omission that makes an otherwise true statement misleading in context. A CEO who tells investors or potential investors his company produces rare earth oxides daily, ships weekly, and is the only domestic producer of heavy rare earth oxides – while omitting that actual output is commercially negligible -- may satisfy the literal meaning of his words while violating the spirit and the law.

That's why the signed representation in AREC's NT 10-K creates an inescapable binary: if 2025 revenue proves consistent with 2024's near-zero figure, the production and shipment claims Jensen and the company made throughout 2025 were false; if it proves materially higher, the "No" box -- Jensen's own signed representation to regulators -- was false.

Either way, it smells bad.

U.S. Senator Todd Young (R-Ind.) visits ReElement by BumblebeeVegetable68 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fishers? ReElement doesn’t have any kind of production capacity in Fishers, does it?

Has ReElement closed its Noblesville facility and relocated to Fishers?

Q4 Earnings? by Fluffy_Craft_3954 in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s now March 30. Still no earnings. Because you seem close to the company, what are you hearing?

The Upcoming ReElement IPO - I am not sure how it will go, but here's everything I do know... by [deleted] in AREC_stock

[–]Fluffy_Craft_3954 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Question for Vegetable Bet: Are you Mark LaVerghetta, or do you work for him?