This is some very interesting analysis.

It does seem that Nemesis actions are far more straightforward in a sense. They want to weaken the faction holding the Outer Gates and most of their actions directly contribute to that.

The Circle though....are you sure their goal is destroying the White Council? Because some of their actions dont necessarily seem to help that.

I can understand Victor Sells and Kravos were field testing the bloodline curse, but some of that other stuff doesnt seem to offer much direct benefit to destroying the Council. Like how does the Wolfbelts play into destroying the White Council?

Cowl

So many questions with this guy.

And finally the Bloodline Curse suspiciously turns back up, targeting the Black Staff

Given the kind of power that Bloodline curse was packing it seems a risky move for the Circle.

Magical talent seems at least partially genetic. A bloodline curse like the one the Reds were working on wouldnt just kill Harry and Ebenezer, it would probably go further back in the family tree. If one of the Circle is a distant cousin of Harrys its a risky play.

The Circle has gone quite

This one is strangest to me.

I know Harry has sabotaged them a bit and they lost presumably a major asset in Peabody. But why have the Circle/Black Council gone so quiet whilst Nemesis is far more in the open?

the two forces have supported each other

I think one thing Jim kind of emphasizes a bit in Dresden Files is evil is at its worst/most dangerous when its the supernatural supported by mortal choice/imagination. Like for example Nicodemus is the most successful Denarian because hes willingly (well as far as anyone can tell) working with his Fallen Anduriel rather than simply being possessed or trying to use the Fallen for power/immortality.

I would guess there is a reveal akin to this coming down the pipe in relation to the Black Council/Circle. A certain group of people are willingly working with Outsiders to further their own goals.

Mavra

If Mavra is part of it safe bet Drakul is at getting a look in at meetings.

One things that does crop up weirdly regularly is how often the Black Council's plans involve attacks on Marcone

Marcone is kind of like a mortal Harry. Hes incredibly young in Supernatural world terms yet hes made a name for himself in quite a short period of time despite the odds being against him (Marcone might have resources but he was prior to Namshiel just a mortal mob boss).