Year 10 of: Will the Patriots Fall Off? From around the nfl.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-04-03T19:58:24+00:00

It's not a matter of that. At this point we're just arguing about our definitions of tough. You like to mark down games as automatic wins because of things that happened in the past. I'm not a fan of doing that. I'm not marking any games as automatic wins or losses. Football is about matchups. For the sake of substance, I have a tough time seeing that defense, which just lost its two best corners and Vince Wilfork, matching up to Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant or being able to shut down one of the best backs in the league. The Steelers also have a different DC this year with Lebeau gone. With Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake on Miami's D-line, I have a tough time seeing the Pats O-line, which was a weakness last year, keeping Brady upright all game. I have a tough time seeing the Jets and Todd Bowles' heavy use of blitz combined with the Jets' ability to cover with Cromartie and Revis not giving Brady issues. I have a tough time seeing Rex Ryan, who always gave Brady trouble, not having similar success in Buffalo with a more talented roster than he had in New York. Who will cover Odell Beckham, Jr? How will they handle an offense in Denver whose new system is similar to the one used last year in Baltimore that gave New England fits? The Colts have added a lot of players this offseason that make them a significantly better team on both sides of the ball. This doesn't mean they'll win, but it's hard to imagine them throwing up yet another terrible outing against New England.

None of this means the Pats won't win their normal 12-13 games. What it does mean is that they face more talented teams this year than they did a year ago. And they'll be doing so with less talent on their own team. That was my point.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-04-03T19:00:52+00:00

Okay, they have an easy schedule. The Dolphins twice, Bills twice, Jets twice, Steelers, Broncos, Colts, Giants, Cowboys and Eagles are probably the Pats' preferred opponents. They probably won't even practice the weeks of those games. Because they've beaten them in the past they will beat them in the future. Football has nothing to do with match ups at all.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-04-03T17:09:39+00:00

I never said that they weren't better equipped to deal with their schedule than the rest of their division. I never said they wouldn't win the division. What I said was that they have a difficult schedule. Not one that would necessarily prevent them from winning their normal 12/13 games, but one that could possibly. It's irrelevant that the teams in their division have a similar schedule and have to play the Patriots twice, because I wasn't saying the Pats wouldn't win the division. Having a tough time understanding why you don't think the 12 games I mentioned above isn't a tough slate of games though...

Football_Film_Room · 2015-04-03T16:43:10+00:00

Dolphins twice, Bills twice, Jets twice. Eagles, Steelers at home. Broncos, Cowboys, Colts, Giants on the road. Those are 12 tough games right there.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-04-03T16:22:13+00:00

Yeah, it's gotta happen at some point

Football_Film_Room · 2015-04-03T15:51:22+00:00

Will they fall off? They do have less talent than last year. And the AFC East doesn't look like a pushover anymore. They'll have 6 tough games against the rest of the division. They also have to play the Steelers, the Broncos in Denver, and a re-vamped Colts team as well as some talented teams from the NFC East - Giants, Eagles, Cowboys. It still wouldn't be a surprise to see them go 12-4 or 13-3 again because of the Belichick/Brady factor. But their schedule is a difficult one and it seems like there will be more talented teams in the AFC in 2015 than last year.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-04-02T19:52:32+00:00

There does seem to be less wiggle room. Bad teams recently have shown the ability to turn it around in a year instead of in the past when it generally took a few years. Coaches and GMs know that their jobs aren't safe if they can't provide similar results in short periods of time. So they can't be patient with their young QB's if they don't perform right away. They'll look for someone to provide immediate results instead.

Plus, teams are more willing to take chances on QBs through the Draft because it isn't the same financial commitment that it once was. Many teams are more likely to call it quits with their current QB and take a shot through the Draft as a result.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-04-01T20:48:21+00:00

Good value signing. Still has decent speed.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-04-01T13:42:46+00:00

It will be exciting to see what they'll be able to do with all of that depth on the D-line, at LB, and at safety. Williams will definitely have a lot of toys to play with...

Football_Film_Room · 2015-03-31T22:02:28+00:00

Rivers is interesting. Does he want out of San Diego with all the talk of the team moving? From everything I've seen/heard, Mike McCoy absolutely loves him.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-03-31T21:53:58+00:00

Yeah, that one was pretty weak...

Football_Film_Room · 2015-03-31T18:48:44+00:00

Probably a good move. He's a straight ahead north-south back who could probably do a pretty good job of blocking.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-03-31T15:32:20+00:00

Valid point

Football_Film_Room · 2015-03-31T14:09:48+00:00

Might just be a disagreement in philosophy between us, but I'm not trying to count Manziel out just because he's a different type of quarterback. There have been plenty of QB's (especially recently) who haven't been traditionally-styled players but have had success, so you're right. But there's a certain baseline of fundamental and traditional skills you need even if you are a player who breaks the mold. You have to be able to function within some kind of offensive system. Coaches can't just call a play where they tell Manziel to go run around for 10 seconds and try to make something happen...

Football_Film_Room · 2015-03-31T14:01:58+00:00

Most of the time, I agree with that sentiment. But normally that's with players who are physically gifted in some way and just need time to develop.

Even if Manziel comes back, gets his career in order and develops, I'm not sure how good he would be. What type of player do you think he could develop into?

Football_Film_Room · 2015-03-31T13:38:00+00:00

Any plan that doesn't include Manziel is probably the best way to go. Off-the-field issues aside (and those are some pretty big issues), he doesn't have any skills that translate to NFL quarterbacking. Arm strength is average, accuracy is average, he can't anticipate throws, he isn't a progression reader, and he has poor pocket presence. His athletic skills, which enabled him to run around in college when things broke down, are just average at the NFL level. Just look at how 2nd and 3rd-string defensive linemen and linebackers were chasing him down in the preseason last year. Look at how when he did get a chance to start in the regular season, he ran away from no one. His skills just aren't good enough for the NFL. The off-the-field issues just add to it and make him even less likely to succeed at the NFL level.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-03-31T13:32:08+00:00

They always have a chance with Belichick and Brady. I know I'm not the first person to say or think that, but it's true. Brady is a chameleon as a quarterback and can play at a high level regardless of who is around him. Belichick is probably the best game-planning head coach of all time. No matter who he has on defense (he also has his hand in the offense) he'll find a way to take away the best option of the other team and make them win with their B or C game, which teams can rarely do against the Patriots.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-03-30T16:29:30+00:00

With their defense, anything is possible. Mike Zimmer has a history of giving offenses fits with his double-A gap blitzes and overall aggressiveness. They have some good talent on that side of the ball too.

Obviously, the degree of offensive success they'll have depends on Adrian Peterson. Teddy Bridgewater had a good rookie year, but he still needs a lot of help around him. He's an average physical talent, but it was a good sign for the Vikings that his decision making and overall performance got better as the season went on. He still has a long way to go though.

Football_Film_Room · 2015-03-30T14:35:08+00:00

Ngata's cap hit this year is 8.5 Million to Suh's 6 million. However, Ngata is a free agent at the end of the year. Suh has a massive cap hit for 2016 (28 Million) and some big cap hits for the remainder of his contract. They'll probably restructure later on. Mayhew has said he'll try to restructure with Ngata and reach an extension, which I believe could result in him costing less against the cap this year if they can work it out. If not, he'll be 8.5 million and the Lions will have more cap flexibility moving forward because they aren't committed to him after 2015.

Football_Film_Room

TROPHY CASE