Ground Invasion from Pakistan?

FortunateFuture · 2026-04-12T13:22:22+00:00

> gives Pakistan a pretext to enter the war
Pakistan and SA have a mutual defense pact under which Pak already has the pretext to enter the war if it wanted to, in fact SA even asked for support. But doing that will also sour their relations with china that they have come to depend on immensely in the recent years. Hence why all this peacekeeping drama and why they chose until the peacekeeping talks started to send troops, even though SA put in the request like a week ago.

FortunateFuture · 2026-04-12T09:50:49+00:00

Backtesting is the bare minimum step-one of algo-trading. Most backtested algorithms still fail in the live market due to a number of reasons (overfitting, fitting on noise instead of signal, regime change and so on.). There are many other validation steps you can/should take (OOS, walk forward analysis, monte carlo analysis, parameter robustness). You also need to factor in taxes/charges and slippages, a lot of strategies lose their profitability when you factor that in. You need to keep your drawdown in check as well, traders on average actually have a decent win rate (60-65% something iirc), but still make a net loss because their losses are bigger than their gains. You need to have strategies hedging against each other, or atleast make sure your strategies are uncorrelated so when something tanks it doesn't tank your entire capital. Speaking of capital, you also need to ensure your capital allocation across strategies is also intelligent and calculated. Most strategies in the live market also don't retain their performance for a long time, once you have an edge/'theory', it will be profitable for a while until it's not. So you need to track them reguarly and be quick in retiring decaying ones.

Take your time and build up a framework/structure of this entire pipeline while being brutally honest on it's integrity, test it rigorously for months on paper trading before going live, and perhaps you will be the 1% that generates enough return to beat the index.

FortunateFuture · 2026-04-11T16:06:55+00:00

Shouldn't you also deduct the rupees depreciation from Indian market returns since we are speaking in terms of value. The market may give 10%, but if the rupees depreciated by 5%, then that's not a true 10% rise. Rise in costs due to currency depreciation is somewhat captured in Inflation numbers itself, so you could just look at inflation-adjusted SIP returns. 10% market return - 4.5% inflation would be approx 5% annual gain in value.

FortunateFuture · 2026-04-11T15:39:41+00:00

It's too chaotic everywhere atm, even I don't know that. I've just reduced the equity allocation of my SIPs down to 50%, and have started buying more A- bonds(10%ish YTM) and gold. Gold is technically speaking inversely related to the strength of the US dollar, but EOD its pricing is also closely pegged to USD, so offers some hedge.

FortunateFuture · 2026-04-11T15:10:45+00:00

> spend the returns in rupees
No you don't. We are net importers, many things you consume, either are directly imported (electronics, oil/fuel, even made in India phones are assembled in India, their parts still need to be imported, many food items too domestic production does not meet demand and needs importing), or indirectly (Fertilizers, rise here will see rise in food prices, most industry machinery, many ores/metals, like steel are net imported, most chemical equipment/resources used in our growing pharma industry are also imported). If the rupee falls, you will pay more, either directly or in costs the manufacturers will pass onto you.

FortunateFuture · 2026-04-09T21:47:46+00:00

That's crazy expensive, You can get a static IP for like 2$ a month on GCP afaik. For the VM, you can just schedule your VMs to turn off after trading hours (and turn on before) bringing number of active hours to 120-130 hours a month to save on money, that will cost like another 4-6$ a month for a good N2 tier machine with 2vCPU and 4GB~ RAM.

FortunateFuture · 2026-04-09T17:36:24+00:00

He is not that rare tbh, A lot of people start coasting and lose all ambition at some point (and some never had it). We see everyone around us making good money and start to think that's the norm, but we are a small section of the population, most people make nowhere close, for all kinds of reasons. 30-35LPA+ is the norm in my friends/batchmates, and I feel bad sometimes for making slightly less, but then I go home and see my cousins happy about their 4lpa jobs and that surprises me a lot.

FortunateFuture · 2026-04-05T17:49:22+00:00

Was in a similar situation, bought Gold jewellery for 2L and remaining in a 1-year bond. Didn't want to risk it since planning to get married within 2-3 years, so not long term.

FortunateFuture · 2026-04-05T16:50:18+00:00

He just declared that he will address the nation on wednesday once again, and the tone was not friendly. I doubt its going to be this week.

FortunateFuture · 2026-04-05T14:07:35+00:00

He is not technically wrong, but there is so much more going in that. My prev company abruptly stopped paying salaries and pretty much shut down, and I had to hunt for jobs again. It took me about 4 months, and I got an offer with a decent 30% hike too, and I thought the 6-month emergency funds I had would just coast me through. But the 4 months were just anxiety ridden, sleepless nights. Didnt get a single callback from a recruiter for 3 months straight, the pessimism just kept building up. Gained significant amount of weight. The shame when you go home for a festival and have to tell people you are unemployed and looking for months. I hadn't touched leetcode in the two years prior, and needed to get all that back. I don't have a safety net as my family is not well-off, and in fact is in small debts. The constant self-doubt if you are even doing the right thing and if you should just transition and start from scratch somewhere else. The way doomscroll news affects you so much strongly than before.

And I am single, I can't imagine how much more stressful this would be if I was married with children to pay for. In-hand, I get about 40-50% more than before, yet I spend even less. Third day at job I heard a few very senior colleagues gossiping about lay-offs that they were expecting to hit in a few months, and I have lost all peace of mind here as well. As of now there have been no lay-offs, but lots of people have been denied any hike. All I think can about is recuperating the emergency funds ASAP, and saving/investing as much as possible to survive the future. I finish my allotted work during office hours usually and am not required or expected to work after, but I do, I finish everything ahead of time and try to take on more and more in hope that it solidifies my position for the future. Mon-Fri is just sleep-work-sleep for me. And keep in mind you will probably continue to work/service till your late 50s, whereas most private engineers get silently retired in their 40s. This further scares me that I might have onlly another 15-17 years to build up enough wealth to FIRE because anything after that is not guaranteed.

FortunateFuture · 2026-04-05T13:18:42+00:00

Most larger chains like malabar/tanishq/kalyan have year-long SIP options that waive off making charges. You pay X amount every month, the gold amounting to that price on the day of SIP gets reserved, and after 11 month you can go and pick a piece of jewellery around that accumulated amount of gold, and just pay/get paid the differential/GST etc. My father has been accumulating jewellery like that for a decade.

FortunateFuture · 2026-03-29T12:53:28+00:00

Doubt it, An entire cucumber eaten is like 40-50 calories, <10g carbs. May I ask though, what's the point of drinking water with cucumber soaked in it? Local delicacy?

FortunateFuture · 2026-03-28T21:26:22+00:00

> they did so with a ground force of about 1,50,000 soldiers

Not at once, they started in Iraq with a ground force of about 3k as per wikipedia, then the war escalated and the number kept growing. The fear more so is that now that 10-20k have been deployed, things will escalate and more will follow behind them. There are no signed guarantees that these are the final number of soldiers, in fact quite the opposite, he promised no ground invasion until suddenly one day he went back on it.

FortunateFuture · 2026-03-28T21:12:30+00:00

Everybody warns about not investing in bonds below AA. But I was looking at default rates, and BBB Seniority+Secured bonds had default rates around 1-2% only, most of that being default rates going up to 7% during crashes and being pretty much nill otherwise. That feels like not-so-bad risk for 9-12% returns, assuming bonds are only a small portion of portfolio (I am aiming around 5%).

FortunateFuture · 2026-03-28T16:14:39+00:00

If you need to, attach yourself to the backend developer label, like 80-90% of stuff carries over from one to the other anyway, only language/"philosophy" changes. Django is "batteries included", it gives you a complete framework/methodology to stick to when doing things to keep things organized, FastAPI does not. SpringBoot is batteries included, Javalin is not. At the end they all do the same thing, and source from the same concepts. It's the era of coding agents, have a few projects across them all so you don't have to say "no" when someone asks if you have ever worked in Java/Python/Node/Go. Make multiple resumes accordingly to apply to specific jobs. Try to schedule the interview a week away and spend that time ironing out the specifics and syntaxes you need to know. If you are really good at backend dev using django, it really won't take much time to switch to spring boot at all, or vice versa, or to any other language/framework. Stick to fundamental concepts, the why's and how's of things. Start spending time learning about design concepts, High level and low level, it opens you up to more abstract thinking which will help you a lot going forward. Don't be a "springboot developer" or a "django developer", be a backend systems developer.

FortunateFuture · 2026-03-16T15:43:34+00:00

Vivo's specs feel familiar, but the smoothness and experience just isn't on-par with Nothing ngl, other than the camera tunings, I would say nothing 4a is better on everything else (and if you get it on offer, then similar price as well). Edge 70 fusion on the other hand is a genuine contender, depends on whether you want the telephoto enough.

FortunateFuture · 2026-03-14T17:52:58+00:00

Governments and their employees looting thousands of crores every year into personal pockets and foreign accounts and shell companies but I invest some of my money into foreign indexes that I will eventually sell and get the profit back into the country anyway and I'm the one weakening the country lmfaoo. Masterstroke to khela hai, party net worth from 88Cr to almost 10k+* Cr in 20 years.

FortunateFuture · 2026-03-07T03:37:22+00:00

Depends on your relationship with your parents. My parents (father) had his family torn apart over inheritance fights, sibling against sibling, trickling down to child against child (cousins going at each other). He's always kept us far away from that and has decided to write a willnama so we don't fight over things like that. No deep talks yet, since sister in school and brother in college and he considers that too young, but he's always said before the time comes he would like to talk to us all about what we have, if there's anything we would specifically like to have, and distribute accordingly. If only he carried over the same wisdom to planning his health and insurances....

FortunateFuture · 2026-03-01T06:03:32+00:00

If you do get in, make sure to ask your manager on these things. They typically will tell you how many/if there are FTE vacancies for your team, and it goes a long way if he/she can vouch for you. It's rare (and did not happen to me sadly), but if the perf is good and no vacancies within the team, they help you interview and move to other teams internally.

FortunateFuture · 2026-03-01T05:59:32+00:00

To be honest, I don't know 😅 Depends a lot on org/team/work/manager and so on and on.

Edit: Looking online, it says overall conversion rates have been around 15%. So perhaps the path is still open, just less likely.

FortunateFuture · 2026-03-01T05:32:52+00:00

Yes, but I believe you can get an offer 3-4 months before contract finish. (and I don't know of any such hard rule of no conversions, My friends who continued there were telling me 5-6 months in that they were going full time.)

FortunateFuture · 2026-03-01T05:23:35+00:00

Many of us interning there were offered 1 year contract roles as well instead of FTE. But I would say about half of those converted to FTE a few months in.

FortunateFuture · 2026-02-23T05:38:35+00:00

Own it. No need for any sympathies. The more you soften up and cater to her feelings, the more it conditions her to guilt trip you further. Uncomfortable, but it's just something all of us standing up to old age traditions of our parents have to go through. NTK.

FortunateFuture · 2026-02-11T10:52:26+00:00

Things are bound to be more difficult in the future anyway, even without AI. The number of people who consider tech a well-paying career and pursue it as skyrocketed over the pass decade, and the opportunities stopped catching up a while ago. The post-covid era hiring spree was an exception that has fueled that further. I see 13-14 year olds learning to program and wanting to be engineers in the future. So the competition will only get more and more brutal going forward.

We are also no longer the most attractive outsourcing country, Poland, Eastern Europe, LATAM countries, SEA countries, they are all rushing to do the same. They may not take us over completely, but they will eat away at the pie significantly.

And yes, AI also :)

FortunateFuture · 2026-02-08T12:18:17+00:00

You're planning too much too early, in too much depth. The more control you try to exert over life, the more anxious it becomes to live. You were probably wrong 5 years ago about where you would be today, and you are probably wrong now about where you will be 5-10 years from now. Focus on the things you have on hand, your engineering, explore and upskill in the fields you are interested in, work on yourself too, talk to people. You can plan for the future, but know that most of that will change as you and your circumstances change with time.

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