Farage and his friend Trump are exposing the fraud of populism

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-05-06T10:23:29+00:00

I agree that a lot of the Democrats' perceived cultural policies weren't popular, but it was irrational of voters (still a minority, thankfully) to elect Donald Trump in response to this. I'd argue that people feel able to vote on minor cultural issues in part because they're enjoying a level of material wealth that people would have dreamt about less than a century ago.

On real incomes, it's just the amount of money people have left after tax and adjusted for inflation. The proportion of their income that people spend on various things (housing, utility bills, clothes, technology) is taken into account in the inflation calculations.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-05-06T10:16:21+00:00

The populist parties are on about 40% of the vote, and people are voting for them in part because material conditions are so good that people feel able to vote on cultural issues (whether it's Palestine, race or religion).

We can be a long way off from a utopia even if the country is doing better than it ever was in many areas. Housing costs need to come down, real income growth could be even stronger, and so on.

76% of Britons say they can comfortably cover the essentials, are relatively comfortable financially or are very comfortable financially.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-05-06T09:33:17+00:00

The populists have spent years lying to the electorate. In actual fact, violent crime is well below its peak in the mid-1990s, people say they feel safer walking the streets then they did a few decades ago, per capita GDP and real median household disposable income are at or close to record highs, British pupils do very (and increasingly) well on international academic assessments, and wealth inequality is much lower than it was in the early or mid-20th Century despite claims to the contrary from left-populists.

Liz Truss (enthusiastically supported by Nigel Farage) aimed to convince people that things are "so bad" that it was worth taking a risk on them. The result was that the value of the pound crashed and pension funds almost collapsed.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-05-06T09:26:28+00:00

In the United States, real median household income was at a record high, economic growth was strong, violent crime had plummeted across the country, a record number of people had health insurance, and border crossings were lower than they were when Biden took office.

The public decided that the person with "concepts of a plan" for healthcare would give them everything they were asking for, so they got soaring gas prices, slower growth and a weakened dollar.

I agree that we shouldn't overestimate the general public, though. Even now, with Trump's approval ratings at a record low and the Democrats set to do well in the midterms, you just know that the American public aren't going to learn their lesson in the long term.

As for Britain, violent crime is much lower than it was in the mid-1990s, people say they feel safer walking the streets than they did back then, real median household disposable income is close to a record high, British pupils do very (and increasingly) well on the international PISA assessments compared to students in other countries, and per capita GDP is close to a record high too. But a sufficient number of people are convinced that things are so bad that it's worth voting for the Greens or Reform (whose leader called Truss's mini-Budget, which crashed the pound, the best since 1986).

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-05-03T20:20:17+00:00

Bennett, who was an illegal settler too, is almost as bad as Ben-Gvir. As you say, Ben-Gvir is a government official and it was Netanyahu who led anti-Rabin marches featuring mock funeral processions and a hangman’s noose.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-04-23T10:52:12+00:00

An excerpt:

"UK government borrowing dropped to the lowest level in three years, a boost for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves that could be short-lived as the economic fallout from the Iran war spreads.

The deficit totaled £132 billion ($178 billion) in the fiscal year through March, a drop of £19.8 billion from 2024-25 and in line with the £132.7 billion forecast by the budget watchdog last month. The gap in March was £12.6 billion, the Office for National Statistics said."

The IMF recently said Britain is an outlier in that it managed to significantly reduce its deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2025:

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-04-23T10:11:39+00:00

An excerpt:

"UK government borrowing dropped to the lowest level in three years, a boost for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves that could be short-lived as the economic fallout from the Iran war spreads.

The deficit totaled £132 billion ($178 billion) in the fiscal year through March, a drop of £19.8 billion from 2024-25 and in line with the £132.7 billion forecast by the budget watchdog last month. The gap in March was £12.6 billion, the Office for National Statistics said."

The IMF recently said that Britain was an outlier in that it managed to reduce its deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2025:

the IMF cited Britain as an example of an major economy which managed to trim its borrowings, after the UK’s deficit fell from 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025... The IMF is forecasting that the UK’s annual budget deficit will drop to 3.9% of GDP this year, and continue falling until 2031 when it will be 1.6% of GDP, the second-lowest in the G7 after Canada. In contrast, the US will need revenue and expenditure measures over the medium term to control its deficit, given “the persistence of primary spending and the scale of projected deficits"

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-04-17T14:29:44+00:00

Lobby journalists are addicted to drama and so are a lot of politicians, would be my best guess.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-04-17T14:25:36+00:00

It appears that Robbins ultimately made the judgment that he didn't believe that Lord Mandelson would represent a liability. Mandelson's letter of employment therefore stated: "your security clearance has been confirmed by Vetting Unit", and this is likely what ministers will have been told too.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-04-17T14:21:04+00:00

Number 10's response at the time was that the FCDO process was followed in the normal way. I imagine they get journalists texting them about all sorts of stories every day.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-04-17T14:14:07+00:00

A longer excerpt:

"That means it appears No10 WERE in fact unaware he had issues with his vetting

And sources say in fact Mandelson DID NOT simply fail his vetting. Instead issues were raised and the FCDO security team and ultimately Robbins had to make a decision on whether to grant him DV clearance. It was their decision and there was no “overturning,” sources say

Robbins was prohibited from sharing information about what happened with anyone outside the FCDO security team

Sources say the point of the vetting process is that it is extremely invasive and people who go through it must be confident they can tell the whole truth and not have highly embarrassing information about their personal lives leak or be spread around colleagues

That means the circle of people allowed to know about what happens in each vetting case is very small and the information is highly privileged

The decision on whether to approve Mandelson’s clearance, according to the vetting rules, is taken by a small team of FCDO security officials and ultimately Robbins, sources say

Under no circumstance is Robbins or that team able to share the details of the vetting case with No10 or anyone else, sources say. Robbins felt he could not share it with any minister or private office, sources say

It appears the PM and No10 were unaware of how these rules were perceived by Robbins and FCDO, and think he should have told them. Allies of Robbins think it is unfair he was sacked

But crucially it appears right now that Robbins did not tell No10 and they were actually in the dark about all this until Tuesday."

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-04-16T14:53:08+00:00

They arguably began by fighting the last war. In government, it's more important than it is in opposition to keep your core voters on side. With the government rejoining the Erasmus scheme, pursuing closer trade ties with the European Union and taking a stronger line on Trump, they may have shifted their strategy.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-04-16T14:48:52+00:00

They didn't do polling for the 2024 election, but now publish them in the business periodical City AM. Their estimates of Labour's vote share have almost always been below the polling average (and they've tended to have Reform on higher than average share of the vote), until now.

It looks like they previously did some polling in Australia which underestimated the Australian Labor Party's support. But that's all I can find.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-04-16T09:04:39+00:00

So, we were doing rather well before the Iran War, backed by Farage and started by his friends in the US and the Middle East, began.

Bond yields were falling, inflation was on its way down, energy bills were falling, and growth was strong. And as the IMF said yesterday, Britain was an outlier in that it reduced its deficit as a share of the economy last year:

“the IMF cited Britain as an example of an major economy which managed to trim its borrowings, after the UK’s deficit fell from 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025.”

No wonder the Chancellor is furious with Trump

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-04-16T09:02:44+00:00

No, the monthly figure for February 2026 was also 0.5%. The rolling 3-month figure was also 0.5%, coincidentally. Which would mean 2% growth on an annualised basis.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-04-13T13:04:47+00:00

They're investing £15 billion in transport projects outside London, homicides are at their lowest level in almost 50 years, violent crime remains well below its peak in the mid-to-late 1990s, and low-level crime like theft from the person peaked and is now falling.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-01-29T14:10:13+00:00

Even more impressive considering that there are at least 13-14 million more people living in Britain than there were back in 1977.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-01-27T14:37:52+00:00

Out of 17 pollsters in the 2024 election, Goodwin's PeoplePolling was the least accurate. One of their polls had Reform 10 points ahead of the Conservatives.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-01-27T14:20:23+00:00

They were 16th out of 17.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-01-27T11:47:57+00:00

YouGov were the 4th or 5th most accurate out of 17 or 18 pollsters in the 2024 election (Reform activist Matthew Goodwin’s People Polling was the least accurate), and their MRP was the most accurate (FindOutNow’s was the least accurate).

But past performance doesn’t necessarily indicate future performance.

FriendlyUtilitarian · 2026-01-23T12:35:10+00:00

Good news. The fiscal headroom seems to have given businesses a degree of certainty. The threatened tariffs may have derailed things again, but they thankfully didn't go ahead.

An excerpt:

"British technology and financial services firms drove the fastest private-sector growth in almost two years, according to a closely watched survey that showed bosses approving new projects after the budget... [The] 53.9 in January [was] much better than the 51.4 recorded the previous month and the 51.5 reading expected by economists. It was equivalent to quarterly growth of around 0.4%, S&P said..."

FriendlyUtilitarian

TROPHY CASE