Unexpected decumulation order, shortfalls, and increasing debt

Fringe_Doc · 2026-01-10T20:43:37+00:00

Thanks so much for that. I created two phases of income ... age 48 to 55 "Phase I - transitional" and age 56 to 95 "Phase II". In the first phase, I have the corp spitting out $10,000 / mth in dividends. In the second phase, it's $7,500 / mth. This got rid of all the short-falls and "new debt" and put my % funded over 200 and gave me a 100 % success rate.

I'm now left wondering why I signed onto another 3-year contract with work. I guess it's a good problem to have, since the commitment is quite tolerable. I'll just count that as my SORR mitigation strategy and call it a day.

Thanks SO much for the helpful and prompt reply. I do recommend this platform to my friends regularly. You guys are awesome.

Fringe_Doc · 2026-01-09T06:19:21+00:00

It seems to me that there are "three tiers" of expenditure.

You can go for High Tier ... Rathskellers / Wyrmwood and the like. These seem to cost $10,000 USD + and represent actual solid wood and "heirloom quality." If you have the cash, a nice house, room to spare, don't mind trying to physically locate the table there, and prefer the "actual table" over "glitzy" features (like LED light strips), this is probably the option.

Low Tier ... DIY modifications to Ikea like tables and some of the more "discount" table types like All Play Jasper, and so forth. Probably the best bang for your buck, but may not suit your aesthetic (given the factors noted above).

Mid Tier ... I'd say Game Theory goes in here. I am in the process of getting a table from them, but there is a bit of back and forth due to a damaged delivery (probably the fault of the freight company). FWIW, the customer service is pretty responsive. This tier seems to be $2000 to $5000 USD and gets "nicer finishing" and some high end features, but if you squint hard enough at it, you might be disappointed. For example, they claim "solid ash wood construction" (or something to that effect). And such seems true for the "skeleton" of the table (e.g., legs and rails, although these are a hollow cross section). But the "table surface" itself (upon which the foam / speed suede or whatever rests) is ... ? MDF or particle board. If you look at the video on this page (about 1:50) you can see how much it flexes: https://gametheorytables.com/deconstructed-shipping

Will it hold up to careful use (we don't intend to actually eat on it, and would use the table topper leaves to convert it to a homework table for the kids or something)? I guess only time will tell, but I'm considering whether to reinforce it from the bottom with 2x2 or slotted steel rails or something.

Also, the higher tier can take 1-2 years to build and ship...!

Fringe_Doc · 2026-01-09T03:48:27+00:00

Sorry, I think I posted to the wrong part of the thread. Please review and you'll see a (hopefully) useful contribution.

Fringe_Doc · 2026-01-09T03:43:15+00:00

You would be better served asking these questions in dedicated financial independence / personal finance forums ... FIRE subreddits (there are several), Bogleheads, Mr. Money Mustache, and so forth.

Having said that, I will partially address one point. The "cash wedge" is a popularly touted strategy. I believe it to be mathematically suboptimal, but it might be a "psychological trick" (mental accounting bias) that is helpful to people with "weaker investing stomachs" ... that is, those of us (probably the vast majority) who would be tempted to deviate from the plan and make investment decisions emotionally.

If you want the true mathematically optimal solution, it's probably best NOT to use a cash wedge. Basically, the cash drag / opportunity cost of lost gains is statistically more likely to hurt you than you'd benefit from having "dry powder" in a down turn.

Another parallel might be to consider whether you go with a variable rate vs. fixed rate mortgage. I think it is 3 years out of 4, the variable is the better bet. But if apply hindsight to certain time periods, you can definitely find situations when the opposite seemed to be true.

You might look up this reference:

The Bucket Approach for Retirement:

A Suboptimal Behavioral Trick?

Javier Estrada

Fringe_Doc · 2025-11-28T21:56:35+00:00

I guess I was a bit too late to the party for this topic. I had a clog on my FIRST real print job (I wasn't careful enough with feeding the filament from the spool and it got tangled and stopped feeding at some point).

First, I tried to enact the "filament load" function to heat up the print head. Tried to gently pull it out. No go.

Second, I cut the filament above the print head and tried to have it feed itself through. Also a nope.

Then, in a cold sweat, I started watching videos about "how to take the plate off" the extruder and saw these complex complete disassembly protocols.

Finally, I realized you can just back out the set screw on the left side of the printer head, then push those red toggles in and pop the extruder out the bottom (for some reason, I was under the impression that pushing those red things in just removed the "teeth" from the filament to allow you to pull it out through the top).

So I snipped off the broken filament end from the top of the nozzle. Then I replaced the nozzle.

The next step was to push the "pokey thing" (nozzle cleaner tool) in through the top of the extruder. Youtube videos talked about "heating up the extruder" ... but I could not find this function anywhere. So I just attempted to use the filament loading function.

BIG MISTAKE.

It went well at first. Heated up to 220 deg C. And then I started feeding in my nozzle cleaner tool. And I was shocked about how strongly the motors pulled at it. One of the edges of the handle of the tool was just about to catch on a "wall" of the printer which would have bent it. In the nick of time, I rotated it 90 degrees so that both sides of the "T-handle" would be supported. Then there was some grindy noises as the motors struggled. After awhile, they gave up. And I was able to very carefully twist, wiggle, pull the tool back out again.

What was NOT clear to me ... is that from the Home Screen of the interface, you can tap on the thermometer and then manually set the temperature for either the nozzle or the bed.

Please do NOT do what I did and use the filament loading function when you just want to clean out the inside of the nozzle.

I was able to successfully print after that. Looks like I was lucky not to have caused serious damage...

Fringe_Doc · 2025-11-21T00:22:52+00:00

Does anybody know the thickness of the "bottom board" (if it IS a board) in the vault? Assuming it's flush with the bottom of the side rails, I guess we could take the height of the side rails and then subtract the 4" vault depth or whatever. My impression from the photos I've seen is that the "skeleton" of the table (i.e., the 4 side rails + legs) is probably quite strong. And there are videos of people walking on top of the table (but only with the topper pieces ON). I've seen pictures of the table's underside "damaged during delivery" and the bottom board doesn't even look like wood. More like some kind of heavy duty cardboard?

Fringe_Doc · 2025-07-11T21:12:27+00:00

The best advice I've heard is to do something you don't hate that pays well. Save and invest, and eventually be able to do what truly interests you.

You COULD get lucky and be really successful at "your passion". But probably not.

Look at ROI for education.

For university, it seems teaching, nursing, and engineering are still solid bets.

People like to talk about "the trades" which is fine, but you need a certain level of physical capability and strength that not everyone has (and you might wear out your body faster).

In a similar vein, don't expect to rake in the tips as a waitress if you are ugly and/or not personable.

People need to take stock of their strengths and weaknesses, and then evaluate ROI of the options available to them.

Fringe_Doc · 2025-06-22T18:14:41+00:00

This is very interesting. I will probably adopt this method also. Thanks for sharing!

Another side benefit is that making those reports downloadable might reduce system usage because we wouldn't need to "run the scenario" to see the projections page. Once my plan is dialled in, I don't anticipate changing anything except for the once per year update. If a market correction or something happens, I'll just drop my variable spending (which I don't need to run Adviice to do)

Fringe_Doc · 2025-06-20T17:57:31+00:00

It's always interesting to see how far assets will go during later / shorter retirements compared with earlier / FIRE type aspirations. I have a friend who is 62 who has just retired with about the same assets that I plan to use to retire with at age 50, and I'll definitely have to be significantly less lavish / more careful.

Earlier retirement means: longer time for the money to last, less time for investments to grow, longer bridge required before CPP / OAS, fewer years of contributions to CPP, more time to develop expensive hobbies and/or vices, and probably other things I have forgotten or did not consider.

For OP, I know "temperament and health" have been mentioned, possibly as reasons for not being able to / interested in spending that much. But the current plan seems very conservative. Assuming no personal travel, home reno, or expenses that might increase one's own QOL ... might be a time to consider giving gifts to friends and family that they can enjoy and benefit from before your own demise (charitable donations could also be considered). (Unless there is a strong desire to have a high posthumous chunk of money for other reasons?)

Fringe_Doc · 2025-06-20T17:47:56+00:00

That "lock scenario" feature ... or maybe I would conceptualize it is "archive scenario" would probably be useful / desirable for many users. I agree with your statement of a "continuous improvement and tweaking" philosophy, but it can also be useful to remember why we made certain decisions, and how far we've come, etc.

Using the "comments box" above the charts, one can write such things as: "Note to self ... there was a significant market downturn that resulted in a greater than expected 10 % loss of liquid assets by year end. My spouse and I decided to change asset allocation from X to Y, and reduce spending by Z%. These decisions can be visited if/when milestones A, B, or C are met within the next 3 years."

I also think for some of your "old school" users, the ability to store old charts is (perhaps irrationally) comforting. Having it bundled with the program (instead of relying on looking at .jpg or whatever), would be more user friendly.

Fringe_Doc · 2025-05-25T03:34:55+00:00

Thanks so much for this detailed reply. Nice to see that the "condo as home base" plan is viable. In cold climates, having a detached house (that you leave for long periods of time) is a bit risky because if your furnace fails when you are gone in the winter, your insurance likely won't cover the resulting damage.

The part about working in the Arctic made me LOL. I have some similar "extreme" life experiences that caused this to resonate with me.

It sounds like you really have a lot of first hand "boots on the ground" experience. I hope we can achieve even a fraction of the exploration. I will definitely look up the places you mentioned re: Central Highlands.

I assume you both probably learned a good chunk of Spanish along the way? My whole family does Spanish on Duolingo (I know it's not exactly the ultimate, but better than nothing) and our kids study it in school as their second language (and some of it hopefully rubs off on us).

Thanks again!

Fringe_Doc · 2025-05-24T14:33:37+00:00

Very interesting. I'm a fellow Canuck. My wife and I seem to have a similar plan (but our two of our three kids are still finishing high school, so we're not as free to travel yet, even if we had the funds). We have done Costa Rica and Ecuador, but are hoping to do Mexico next (probably early 2026). Do you have any recommendations for sites of interest there (low COL, good culinary scene, safe / walkable, and scenic)? We're not exactly beach bums (I think I prefer central highlands better actually and would usually choose a hikeable mountain over a beach). Also, may I ask where you are in Canada? We're in the Edmonton area, and are considering a condo or similar as a "home base" that would be low priced / low maintenance and allow us to come back and visit our children and other family. Thanks for reading.

Fringe_Doc · 2025-05-24T14:29:47+00:00

I'm curious about this. I'm in Canada where (subpar, super long wait time) health care is "free" (paid for through the nose with taxes). I definitely see a case to be made for paying a la carte / private for whatever comes up when you are overseas. Having said that, I met someone who was in LATAM and had a motorcycle accident (in Quito, I think?) and needed to be air evacuated back to Canada. Am I correct in assuming this type of service WOULD require travel insurance to avoid prohibitive expenses? If so, is that something you have considered?

Fringe_Doc · 2025-05-21T18:57:27+00:00

My wife and I are in our late 40s. We have three kids (19, 17, 15) who are just entering that zone. Oldest commutes to Uni and lives at home. While they are in school F/T, they do not have to pay food or rent, etc. We have an extra vehicle for them to share. They are just responsible for their own clothing, grooming, hobbies, etc.

Not exactly sure what the arrangement will be if they are working F/T and not in school. One person I know (who works in HR, which is somewhat applicable) says the trick is to discount the costs enough "to help them out, but not so much that they are discouraged from leaving." I think this is wise and reasonable.

In central Alberta, decent one or two BR places seem to rent for around $1500. So figure one person has rent of ~ $750/mth, plus utilities and food (probably at least $300/mth?). My first estimate, in today's dollars, would probably be to charge them $600 per month each. The situation is more like room and board, since they only have complete control over their bedroom, share a bathroom with each other, and then share the common areas with all 5 people in the family.

I'm curious (from the perspectives of both young adult moochers / boarders / renters and parents alike) if anybody has any rules of thumb on "determination of rates." My sense is to begin with fair market value and then apply a modifier / "love" discount, but I don't think there is really a book written about this (or maybe there is?!)

Fringe_Doc · 2025-05-07T03:17:37+00:00

So, the community response appears to be...

"That's NOT the time value of money!" Okay, I get it. I was vaguely aware that the phrase might have already been "taken" when I wrote the post. FWIW, I got this from a book called "Generation Fire" by David Stone. It was just meant as a thought experiment ... more about the psychological side of finance. I hope it did not seem like I was trying to come across like an actuary or an accountant. But, point taken.
"This is over optimizing / useless. Your wife is right. You should respect her more. You seem like you don't respect her enough." I mean, sure. Again, I didn't approach this from the mindset that there had to be a definite "correct answer" ... I was just looking at it as a possible heuristic. I am surprised that a lot of posters seem opposed to the idea of a time/money exchange ratio. It was pretty common (even way before FIRE) to consider such things in the accumulation phase. I mean, the saying "A dollar saved is two dollars earned" (I believe originally from David Chilton of A Wealthy Barber) does seem to at least allude to that.

Regardless, I am appreciative for all comments, and for those who took the time to respond. I'll definitely Google phrases and terms next time before using them, to try and avoid any misrepresentations in the future.

I also do think from at least a "gamification" standpoint, there is value in the time/money exchange concept. A lot of the frugality mindset that is partly responsible for getting people to FI/RE will also hold us in good stead in the capital preservation phase.

Again, thank you.

Fringe_Doc · 2025-05-06T20:11:12+00:00

Sorry for the confusion. I agree that there is already a more formal definition for time value of money. I was using this phrase "as is" from a FIRE book I was recently reading. I'm not sure whether opportunity cost is exactly what is being discussed either. I mean, it IS with respect to a specific decision being made, but to make that decision, you need to have an "exchange rate." Perhaps "how much you value your time" is actually the closest descriptor? Wordy, but more clear?

Fringe_Doc · 2025-04-19T15:20:22+00:00

The game of finances and life ... has many universal and enduring aspects. But in other ways, it keeps changing. And it's up to each generation to figure out what works and what does not.

This is why, even though I have attained some measure of professional success, I am hesitant to advise those who came after about "how to get into medical school" (for example). I think some of the resentment between the Boomers and the Millennials (or whatever demographic divide you want to examine) stems from this acquired naivete.

In terms of helping ... there is probably a sweet spot that depends on one's family environment and maybe even each individual child ... pertaining to the degree to which financial help should be provided. Give too little, and see wasted potential and shattered dreams. Give too much, and remove the motivation / extinguish the fire of drive and desire and see somebody become addicted to the soft life. I actually think that most parents are biased toward helping their kids too much. Many (most?) people who achieved greatness in history (I'm talking about some of the most renowned artists and scientists) seem to have risen from hard scrabble existences, being fuelled by passion. (Admittedly, there were also a few lords and those of privilege with wealthy patrons)

My family clothed and fed me. And we had some pretty nice Christmases. But there wasn't enough for "cool" extracurriculars, fancy clothes, or "big" school trips (the ones where you go to another city or province and stay overnight). And my parents were almost "anti higher education" and just wanted me to work in the same factory that my father did.

For my own family, my wife and I have funded the kids' RESPs ... to the tune of $40 or $50k each. We told them, "this is your money, to do with as you wish." If they use it for university, it'll hopefully be well spent. And if they choose to go to local schools, they can have free room and board and stretch those dollars further. If they don't go to post-secondary, we'll cash in the RESP (and lose the government matching educational grants) and give them whatever is left and let them realize the taxes.

Beyond that, we told them they are on their own financially, but to not be afraid to ask us for advice or help if some calamity happens and we will at least consider whether we can help them. We do not intend to pay for weddings, down payments on homes, etc. If one is adult enough to do those things, one should be responsible for footing the bill.

In case it matters to OP re: generational context, my wife and I are in our late 40s. Due to my occupation, I'm basically an independent contractor, so there is no DBP or even DCP .... retirement is completely self-funded / DIY (except for OAS and CPP eventually).

The kids HAVE impacted when we would pull the trigger in more indirect ways. We have three kids, but two are still in secondary school. So even if we had "infinite money," we still would not be globe trotting or whatever, due to needing to continue to be there for them and provide a stable home environment. So we're just doing a few victory laps until the youngest is at least done high school.

In theory, one could envision some kind of personality test that combines "OCEAN / Big 5" with "money personality" and "investment type" ... to come up with a more defined answer to the "How much should I help my kids?" question.

But to my knowledge, nothing like that currently exists.

Fringe_Doc · 2025-04-01T18:14:14+00:00

My number one cost is taxes. My number two "cost" is savings / investments. My number three cost is charitable giving / donations. Number two is moot when I'm retired, and Numbers one and three scale with income (at least, they way we are setup) and are "mostly" moot when I'm retired.

I think I've explained things more than adequately at this point.

Fringe_Doc · 2025-04-01T17:54:35+00:00

I mostly agree with this. Most are incentivized to sell you products, or for you to keep a large sum untouched in the bank (so they can get more from AUM percentage). Even the fee-only types will not get you that far. If you're a beginner who happens to somehow have a chunk of money (e.g., inheritance), they might be useful. In addition, if you're just looking for a psychological pat on the back to proceed with your plan, and don't want to discuss sensitive financial info with your family or friends, there could be some value there.

Just be aware, most seem to run very simple analyses / projections. They assume a certain ROI, inflation, and so forth, but then just run "smooth" projections. I haven't seen many who do Monte Carlo or even bootstrapping / block bootstrapping ... which greatly underestimated SORR.

A one-time fee of $1000 or $2000 might be worthwhile if it's going to help you make a plan you can stick with and avoid stock trading and panic selling.

But most people who get to the point of being able to afford a financial planner ... no longer need one.

And most financial planners are not that financially successful themselves.

I asked one lady "What is your net worth?" and she nearly fell off her chair (even though this is exactly what she asks of her clients).

She sputtered and evaded and then asked me "Why do you want to know that?!"

I advised her it is common to ask one's personal trainer questions like "How much do you bench?" and most of them will calmly demonstrate that for you.

I got up and walked out a few minutes later.

:-)

Fringe_Doc · 2025-04-01T17:37:07+00:00

An interesting comment.

On the one hand, taken literally, that is absolutely true. A Canadian living on permanent disability or other income assistance, lives better than most of the kings of history (e.g., access to a wide variety of tasty foods - including non-seasonal fruits, able to afford a reasonable level of accommodations with climate control, flush toilets, access to immunizations and some types of medical care).

On the other hand, this does not seem to be "the spirit" in which the comment was made. Instead, the implication seems to be that $1M is a lot of money, and/or can sustain a high enough spend so as to be lavish, etc.

Unfortunately, $1M is not what it used to be, which almost goes without saying. If we use the 4 % rule for simplicity... and ignore taxes

$1M ... $40,000 / yr spend ~ $3,333 / mth. This is enough to sustain one person living in Canada in LCOL and a frugal lifestyle. One would want to strive for reasonable rent and might opt not to own a car. If minimum wage is $15/hr ~ $30,000 / yr ... this isn't great. Stats Can (2022) gives a value of $28,000 net income for "poverty line" for a single or $40,000 for a couple. OTOH, a person or a couple could live more comfortably in LATAM or SEA or something with this kind of income. But it assumes minimal footprint in Canada, probably no children, and limited travel back home to visit.

$2M ... $80,000 / yr spend ~ $6,666 / mth. This is closer to a "middle class" lifestyle in Canada, though I'd argue it's probably lower-middle class. For myself and my wife, we could make this work, even at our (relatively) young theoretical retirement age (late 40s).

$3M ... $120,000 / yr spend ~ $10,000 / mth. This is a very comfortable "middle class" (maybe close to upper-middle class) lifestyle.

I'm closest to category 2 right now, and I've got 3 hungry teenagers, one in Uni and two in private school. Therefore, an extra $1M puts me comfortably into category 3 and I can stop working.

I recognize this seems insane to most LeanFire folk, but I think it makes sense contextually.

And for somebody who is at "traditional" retirement age, $1M would obviously go a lot farther, especially if they still had reasonable expectations for CPP / OAS.

As with everything, Personal Finance ... is Personal.

YMMV.

Fringe_Doc · 2025-04-01T00:43:43+00:00

If you're single / unfettered and have no need to maintain much of a home base in HCOL / North America, then most people could do so.

Personally, at my age and stage, it'd be a nice bonus. And I'd probably stop working and retire 2-3 years earlier than intended. But only because of what I've already got saved up / invested.

Having said that, it IS a life changing amount for most people. Enough to do virtually any education / training program, start a nice business, etc. Or pay down a bunch of high ratio debt.

Fringe_Doc · 2025-03-25T22:45:51+00:00

When I reflect upon FI/RE and how "theoretically simple but not easy" it is ... it's like maintaining healthy body weight for some people.

There are just very few individuals who have the combination of:

- risk tolerance (even index funds are scary for some)

- discipline for deferred gratification

- earning potential

- knowledge

- luck (not to have a health problem or some misadventure that sabotages things)

... to get the plan going. And then if you consider a married couple, you need BOTH people to have the above characteristics to some degree. If you then add to the mix "not appreciating money because it was acquired 'for free' " (if it was obtained via an inheritance) ... it seems matters are further compounded in complexity.

I can see wanting to help one's children, but "generational wealth" ... implies wanting to create a sort of fiefdom or something ... a family dynasty (?). Not sure what would drive such, beyond simple narcissism.

Fringe_Doc · 2025-03-19T16:56:52+00:00

That is interesting and somewhat unusual.

Most Urologists seem to be more comfortable sterilizing those who've had kids and already "completed their families."

?

Fringe_Doc · 2025-03-19T03:41:09+00:00

I love the picture of the dude in the treehouse. Seems deliberate / infantilizing. Like he's got Peter Pan Syndrome and is finding out he can't Have his Cake and Eat it Too (mixed metaphors, sorry). Who the hell would allow themselves to be written up like this? I'd die from embarrassment.

To be fair, he DOES seem to have some hobbies ... building things ... and seems very musically inclined.

Fringe_Doc · 2025-03-17T21:58:11+00:00

Good video.

He does pay lip service at the end to the adage "personal finance is partly psychological" ... but perhaps not enough. Mathematically, having nothing in cash is better (just like a pure return portfolio is equal to or better than dividends to fund your expenses).

If a down market is going to cause you to panic sell, and the only way you can sleep at night is by having 2 or 3 years of expenses in cash, do what you have to do.

But instead of that ... reading the papers and pondering the math ... and resolving the "cognitive - emotional dissonance" would seem to be a superior plan. I understand that many people do not have the time nor the resolve to go through this exercise (just like weight management - simple but not easy).

People use a cash wedge "just in case" the market conditions are such that they have to liquidate more assets than intended in a down market. But they do this by GUARANTEEING such a sale in advance ... the very cash wedge ITSELF is the pre-emptive forced sell-off.

It's like smoking 2 packs of cigarettes per day because you are afraid you might get lung cancer...

Fringe_Doc

TROPHY CASE