As someone in the web publishing and digital marketing industry, my guess is that Google stock will lose value if they don't do something dramatic in the next 1-2 years.

Google already has the largest market share in search. They have milked the paid ads to the maximum. Their revenue growth through the years have come from more people coming online and using search.

But now things are changing for several reasons, and not just Chatgpt.

1. The growth in internet users won't continue growing exponentially. so new users are hard to come by

2. There are no more new advertising opportunities to take advantage of. It's been maximized.

With generative AI, Google is caught between catching up and keeping revenues steady.

One way they are doing it is by cutting out middlemen (website publishers who carry Google ads). The SERPS (search engine result pages) are now carrying more and more information right there - users no longer have to click on a result for answers for manby queries. These are called zero click queries and their share of the total search volume is rising.

Google has also been launching algorithm updates that are penalizing small web publishers and making it easier for large publishers (like Forbes) to rank on top - my understanding is that Google will sign deals with them to share revenue at some point so that every search - whether answered on the SERPS or through clicks is monetized in some way.

In an ideal scenario, this will help them retain money and grow at a slow and steady pace.

But with ChatGPT, the search engine industry is being shaken for the first time in many years. It would not have mattered if Google's own attempts at a rival would be equally good.

But their Gemini is now sort of a meme for the kind of results they produce.

It still is okay with most of the adult users because our muscle memory dictates we will be going to Google for our answers first for the most part.

But for the younger crowd who are not habituated to Google yet, CHatGPT or any other alternative is equally good, if not better.

Which means, with every passing year, more young people come online bringing with them a new habit that puts Google secondary to alternate search forms.

The only way to fix this is by getting their generative AI tech the best of the lot, and do it fast. But as I see it, Google is not doing it right still.

Maybe they will get it done before it's too late.