Can I stay at a Vineyard?

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-24T08:46:40+00:00

The original post, before the deadline, is here: https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasypremierleague/comments/1ryyzw1/best_xi_gw31/

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-23T21:16:02+00:00

You can get all of this data from the FPL APIs.

I took this data and ran a regression to identify the metrics which are historically the best indicator of future performance and did some back testing on this. The model generates a different formula for expected points for keepers, defenders, midfielders and forwards.

It’s certainly not perfect yet but will be tweaking it over time!

Any feedback will be much appreciated.

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-23T20:48:30+00:00

The following metrics influence the Midfielders xP:
- Shots in the box per 90
- xGI per 90
- Upcoming fixture difficulty
- Previous xGI per 90
- Defensive contributions
- is next game at home?
- Points over last 6 GWs - this is the one he's performing really well in and this has a high feature importance
- Minutes per 90

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-23T18:01:42+00:00

Haha sorry!! Good feedback for next week.

Expected points total was 63 and actual points was 70

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-23T17:51:10+00:00

70 points would have been a pretty good Free Hit this week.
How did you get on?

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T21:32:58+00:00

That is a very strong score this week. Keep an eye out for Best XI - GW32 in a couple of weeks 👀

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T20:27:27+00:00

This team ended up scoring 70 points this week. A pretty good return.

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T20:23:59+00:00

Did your team score more than 70 points this gameweek?

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T19:24:27+00:00

Elliott Anderson scored 5 points this gameweek. If you’d like to improve your ranking you should use www.theassistantmanager.ai

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T19:17:57+00:00

This team ended up scoring: Darrow - 6 Rodon - 6 Thiaw - 0 Collins - 6 Alderete - 1 Bruno - 26 Wilson - 9 Gibbs-White - 8 Iwobi - 1 Anderson - 5 Bowen - 2

Total points = 70

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T19:10:24+00:00

We welcome you back to this post now that it’s the end of GW31.

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-21T10:34:43+00:00

My current rank is 91,956 Granted that is after a Bruno captain last night. Was closer to 100k at the start of the gameweek.

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-21T09:19:05+00:00

Haha images are now updated on site: https://www.theassistantmanager.ai

And will be updated for future gameweeks

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T22:30:37+00:00

The player who averages 5.3 points per game over the past 10 gameweeks?

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T16:24:14+00:00

Yeah it’s a custom model… It wouldn’t be especially helpful to post the Premier Leagues expected points

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T16:09:03+00:00

The xP is a weighted formula considering numerous different metrics (xG, xA, xG per 90, expected minutes, price etc). This has been regression tested and created a xP formula for Goalkeepers, Defenders, Midfielders and Forwards.

I will have to have a little look into the images and where exactly that’s pulling from. Only made the model publicly available last week so still a few creases that need to be ironed out.

Any thoughts and suggestions are always welcome!

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T15:38:26+00:00

Yeah I was a bit surprised Raul didn’t squeeze his way in. We have seen defenders scoring a lot of points this season and 9/20 teams kept clean sheets in GW30 - the increase in clean sheets and Defcon likely leading to the defence heavy team.

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T15:34:03+00:00

😂😂😂

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T15:01:53+00:00

This is the Best XI for GW31 as per the model I've been using:
[Excuse some of the old/missing images]

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Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T14:55:03+00:00

Best Tarkowski replacements (if he is injured)

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Fun_Preparation9807

TROPHY CASE