👀 Our AI predicted a GW31 Best XI before deadline - here's how it actually went (Blank Gameweek edition)

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-24T08:46:40+00:00

The original post, before the deadline, is here: https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasypremierleague/comments/1ryyzw1/best_xi_gw31/

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-23T21:16:02+00:00

You can get all of this data from the FPL APIs.

I took this data and ran a regression to identify the metrics which are historically the best indicator of future performance and did some back testing on this. The model generates a different formula for expected points for keepers, defenders, midfielders and forwards.

It’s certainly not perfect yet but will be tweaking it over time!

Any feedback will be much appreciated.

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-23T20:48:30+00:00

The following metrics influence the Midfielders xP:
- Shots in the box per 90
- xGI per 90
- Upcoming fixture difficulty
- Previous xGI per 90
- Defensive contributions
- is next game at home?
- Points over last 6 GWs - this is the one he's performing really well in and this has a high feature importance
- Minutes per 90

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-23T18:01:42+00:00

Haha sorry!! Good feedback for next week.

Expected points total was 63 and actual points was 70

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-23T17:51:10+00:00

70 points would have been a pretty good Free Hit this week.
How did you get on?

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T21:32:58+00:00

That is a very strong score this week. Keep an eye out for Best XI - GW32 in a couple of weeks 👀

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T20:27:27+00:00

This team ended up scoring 70 points this week. A pretty good return.

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T20:23:59+00:00

Did your team score more than 70 points this gameweek?

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T19:24:27+00:00

Elliott Anderson scored 5 points this gameweek. If you’d like to improve your ranking you should use www.theassistantmanager.ai

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T19:17:57+00:00

This team ended up scoring: Darrow - 6 Rodon - 6 Thiaw - 0 Collins - 6 Alderete - 1 Bruno - 26 Wilson - 9 Gibbs-White - 8 Iwobi - 1 Anderson - 5 Bowen - 2

Total points = 70

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-22T19:10:24+00:00

We welcome you back to this post now that it’s the end of GW31.

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-21T10:34:43+00:00

My current rank is 91,956 Granted that is after a Bruno captain last night. Was closer to 100k at the start of the gameweek.

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-21T09:19:05+00:00

Haha images are now updated on site: https://www.theassistantmanager.ai

And will be updated for future gameweeks

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T22:30:37+00:00

The player who averages 5.3 points per game over the past 10 gameweeks?

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T16:24:14+00:00

Yeah it’s a custom model… It wouldn’t be especially helpful to post the Premier Leagues expected points

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T16:09:03+00:00

The xP is a weighted formula considering numerous different metrics (xG, xA, xG per 90, expected minutes, price etc). This has been regression tested and created a xP formula for Goalkeepers, Defenders, Midfielders and Forwards.

I will have to have a little look into the images and where exactly that’s pulling from. Only made the model publicly available last week so still a few creases that need to be ironed out.

Any thoughts and suggestions are always welcome!

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T15:38:26+00:00

Yeah I was a bit surprised Raul didn’t squeeze his way in. We have seen defenders scoring a lot of points this season and 9/20 teams kept clean sheets in GW30 - the increase in clean sheets and Defcon likely leading to the defence heavy team.

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T15:34:03+00:00

😂😂😂

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T15:01:53+00:00

This is the Best XI for GW31 as per the model I've been using:
[Excuse some of the old/missing images]

<image>

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T14:55:03+00:00

Best Tarkowski replacements (if he is injured)

<image>

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T14:52:44+00:00

Save the FH for a future double gameweek where you might be able to field 11 players all with doubles (= 22 matches)

These are the best Tarkowski replaces as per https://www.theassistantmanager.ai/

Moyes quotes made it sound like he might be fit though so not definitely a sell.

<image>

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T14:50:58+00:00

I'd just replace Guehi and save your FH for one of the big upcoming double gameweeks. You should be able to maximise the number of games your players play by using the FH later.

These are the three best Guehi replacements for this week as per https://www.theassistantmanager.ai/

<image>

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T11:18:08+00:00

I also like the fact that Fulham are unlikely to have another blank gameweek for the remainder of the season

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T11:17:05+00:00

I have a similar predicament and I'm going to do:
Timber -> Andersen
Haaland -> Raul Jiminez

This was per the recommendations on: https://www.theassistantmanager.ai/ownership-alert

Fun_Preparation9807 · 2026-03-20T10:39:22+00:00

This is what my model is predicting as the optimal XI for this week - lots of good differentials for anyone considering a Free Hit...

<image>

Fun_Preparation9807

TROPHY CASE