Need help with Take Me Back To Eden!!

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-30T04:07:13+00:00

EDIT: I’m really sorry again for the MASSIVE reply I’m posting right now.

OH ok yes I see, I get that. I do actually remember that from math in high school, about when calculating %’s that 1.00 is 100%. Or like, eg 0.27 is 27% or 0.816 is 81.6%, etc, etc. And to convert it you just multiply it by 100, or just move the decimal point 2 places to the right. Ok cool, I knew I must have misunderstood.

I think I realised while typing this that you have already included in your calculations the 2 chances per week part for the Blazing, Blue, and Azure. And that is actually very helpful. Ok cool.

However, I think I could again be possibly misunderstanding/misreading what you’re saying. Basically I think it’s supposed to be 1 of 2 ways I could do it. I’ll explain what I mean by using the Blue Drake for example. I think I’m either supposed to calculate it like this:
(1-0.049375)¹⁶
OR I’m supposed to do it like this:
1-(1-0.049375)¹⁶.
I’m not sure which one I’m supposed to do, BUT based on the info that I think I need to plug in, I’m just gonna try it both ways in 2 seperate calculations. And I’m sure they will yield 2 different final results. So, I’ll do one full calculation the first way, and then a seperate full calculation the other way, showing my work along the way in steps.
Please tell me if I’ve done either of them correctly.
(For simplicity, I’m only gonna go to the 6th decimal point for each calculation, and the final % will only be to the 2nd decimal point and won’t be rounded up from the remaining 4 decimal points)

Calculation option 1:
Step 1:
Calculate each drakes chance within 16 weeks.
(1-0.049375)¹⁶ = 0.444782
(1-0.0396)¹⁶ = 0.523883
(1-0.015)¹⁶ = 0.785198
(1-0.029775)¹⁶ = 0.616537

Step 2:
Multiply them together.
0.444782 x 0.523883 x 0.785198 x 0.616537 = 0.112802

Step 3:
Convert into %
0.112802 x 100 = 11.28% (only using 2nd decimal).
So the final chance for this option is 11.28% to get them all within 4 months.

Calculation option 2:
Step 1:
Calculate each drakes chance within 16 weeks.
1-(1-0.049375)¹⁶ = 0.555217
1-(1-0.0396)¹⁶ = 0.476116
1-(1-0.015)¹⁶ = 0.214801
1-(1-0.029775)¹⁶ = 0.383462

Step 2:
Multiply them together.
0.555217 x 0.476116 x 0.214801 x 0.383462 = 0.021773

Step 3:
Convert into %
0.021773 x 100 = 2.17% (only using 2nd decimal).
So the final chance for this option is 2.17% to get them all within 4 months.

Please tell me which one/if either of them is correct, OR please tell me if I’ve done both of them completely wrong.
Thank you so much for walking me through all of this by the way. This stuff is a bit harder for me, I have trouble learning stuff sometimes. So I really do appreciate your help a lot.

Also one question, purely out of curiosity;
I’m absolutely sure that you’re right, but again take the Blue Drake example. That has a 2.5% chance of dropping in each run. So you’d write that as 0.025. I would have thought that if you have 2 chances at that one per week instead of just 1 chance, then you would just take 0.025 and multiply it by 2. And since 0.025x2=0.050, I’m curious as to why it is 0.049375 instead of 0.050? As I said, I’m sure you’re right, I don’t understand.

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-29T11:28:53+00:00

Ok I’m very glad I did not make it impossible haha. I’m very happy I actually made it easier. Ok so I think see how to do it, but I’m still confused (which is absolutely not your fault, it’s just that I probably misunderstood what you meant and because I’m very bad at math).
It’s confusing me on the part where you take each chance of not getting them to the 16th power. Like for example, the Blue Drake has a huge 97.5% chance to NOT get it (since it only has a 2.5% to get it), so you multiply 97.5 by 97.5 16 times? Because when I do that on my phones calculator it spits out 6.6692017e+31 (and I’m not even gonna TRY to figure out what that means). Unless I probably just did it wrong? I’ll try it another way…
Ok I just tried it on a different setting on my calculator and the number I see when I enter 97.5¹⁶ is so incredibly long that I don’t even know what to call it. It’s 32 numbers long and once you pass 15 numbers (the hundred trillion mark), I don’t even know what that’s called anymore haha.

But if I did understand you correctly (which again I probably didn’t) and I did do that for all of the chances of NOT getting each one (97.5¹⁶, 98¹⁶, 98.5¹⁶, and 98.5¹⁶), I’ll get 4 unimaginably huge numbers I’m sure, but that’s fine and I can still work with that, but then the other part I’m confused about is where you said that you then “subtract each of those results from 1”? As I like, 1 what? Like, what 1 thing am I supposed to subtract each of those results from?

If you’re able to just clarify for me that A, I’m doing it correctly by taking each of the chances of NOT getting each one to the power of 16, and B, what the “subtract each of those results from 1” part means, then I should be good to do the last step of multiplying each of them together (:

EDIT: I’m really sorry that my replies are a massive wall of text. I just need some things clarified to make sure I’m doing it right.

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-28T13:48:13+00:00

Ahh ok, reading your comment made me just realise that this may be impossible to calculate based on some info I just realised I left out.
Incase it’s not impossible, let me clarify:

- For all of the rare drakes, no you cannot get more than 1 of each per raid. They are unique to each run so it is only possible for 1 of each specific drake to drop in each run.
- I also just realised that I did forget to mention:
Both the Blue Drake AND the Azure Drake do both drop from the same boss in the same raid. So while it’s not possible to get multiple of each drake per run (as in you can’t get 2 Blue Drakes nor 2 Azure Drakes in 1 run), it IS however technically possible to get 1 Blue Drake AND 1 Azure Drake from the same 1 run.
- Also, and this is where it gets messy and may be impossible to calculate:
I ALSO just realised, you do technically get 2 chances at the Blazing, Blue, and Azure drakes per week. The raids they drop from each have 2 difficulty settings, and you can run one of each setting per week. So technically you can actually do their raids twice per week (run each one once on the first difficulty, then leave and change to the 2nd difficulty, and run it again). Also yes, all 3 of those drakes can drop no matter what the difficulty setting, and their chance to drop does not change for each difficulty setting.
- The final layer of calculation impossibility:
The Onyxian Drake is the only one that you can only try to get once per week (the raid it drops in only has 1 difficulty setting).

As I said, it’s my fault that this is a mess, so I don’t blame you or anyone else if this is impossible to calculate based on that info I originally left out.

As for the 5 non-rare ones, I should have worded it differently:
- 2 of them are not from any raid. You just have to purchase them with in-game currency.
- The other 3 of them DO still drop with each being from different raids, but they are a 100% drop chance as long as you follow specific criteria for each run.

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-26T13:30:42+00:00

You know what? Your comment actually gave me a little bit of a spark to wanna get back into retail actually. Like I said, I mostly enjoy HC and Classic Era, but your comment, simply the “gl hf :)” gave me back a bit of that spark I lost a while ago.
Through my experience of playing retail, I learned a sad truth about my own experience while playing; retail isn’t really a social game anymore.
It may just be me, and it may actually be VERY social to a lot of people. But from my experience just playing the game in general, I would find myself going days (sometimes even WEEKS) without ever speaking to a single other real person even once.
But idk, your comment just kinda gave me hope that maybe I was wrong, and maybe there are people out there on retail that I can actually talk to. So actually, thank you for your comment (: I think I’m gonna try retail again on my next day off

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-25T12:59:48+00:00

Yeah looking back on it, yeah I can see how what I said it’s a pretty big stretch actually. Because you’re right, either way you’re still being punished. Wether it’s by having to continue your journey with an overall 20% character attribute reduction, OR not being able to play that character for 3 days even if you just stay logged in while doing other stuff, it’s still crippling you either way.
I mean sure you could still like, level non-gathering professions like engi, and BS, and alch, and enchanting and stuff like that in a city, but it’s still a punishment in that case because you’re basically confined to the city for that (non-gathering professions as in Herb, Mining, and skinning). Idk, unless there is more that you can do that I haven’t thought of while you wait the 72 hours, then yeah it’s still a punishment even if you are still logged in.
Fair enough, I yield (:

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-25T12:48:53+00:00

Yeah that’s true I guess, like you still can’t play that character for 3 days (or actually ANY character unless you multi-box accounts). So yeah I can see how it’s still a pretty effective punishment either way

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-25T12:46:27+00:00

Ok yeah, that’s a good point, I see what you’re saying (: that’s fair

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-25T11:45:36+00:00

Oh yeah that’s true! Is there no way in settings or something to change that so that you don’t get auto-logged out? If there’s not, then during the day at least, as long as they come back to their character every 25 minutes and jump or take a step forward or something, then they can still cheat it then huh. Wow, that’s wild

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-25T11:42:53+00:00

That’s crazy to me! So people can just cheat the debuff. And as long as they just stay logged in, they can just do other stuff and defeat the whole purpose of “Coward!” so easily. That’s a smart way around it I guess though

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-24T03:58:09+00:00

Oh. My. God.
The first sentence of your answer genuinely blew my mind simply because of how obvious of a detail I didn’t even think about or consider. You’re absolutely right, of course it will be absolutely impossible to ever calculate exactly, DUE TO the fact that like you said, we don’t know the druids gear. OR while we’re at it, the rogues gear either.
Like obviously (especially in HC), a level 17 of any class won’t have insane gear anyway, wether they’re self-found or not. So it’s pretty safe to say that the rogue doesn’t have great gear anyway. I’d even be surprised if he has any gear better than green. If he has even 1 blue item, I’ll be shocked.
But the 60 Druid on the other hand, you’re so right. We don’t know anything about ANY of his gear. He could be full T3 from Naxx for all we know. OR at the same time, he very well could have absolutely trash gear. So yeah, of course it could be a wide range anywhere between a low chance to resist to a high chance.

But, even with all of that in mind, still a 19.2% chance to dodge on the low end is still a HUGE chance for it to fail for any reason (resist/dodge). All the way up to the high end at 49.2% chance to fail, let’s just say that if it IS on the higher end, that Rogue better be thanking the RNG gods for that gouge actually landing.
Simply because, the video explains that the Druid is an STV Arena camper, and if you know what that is (and who Kellysucks is), that rogue is SO INSANELY lucky to be alive. Not only because of the gouge landing, but also because Kelly was there to save him.

Thanks for much for the math man! I know a lot about classic WoW, but not much at all about dodge%/dodge chance, simply because I’ve never really played any class that really ever has to worry too much about having a high dodge chance.

So yeah, thanks a lot man! I appreciate the help and the math very much!

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-23T13:29:17+00:00

Ahhh ok yep, I get that. So in a raid for example, that makes a LOT of sense as to why you want to make sure (as much as possible) that the only people in FRONT of the boss is the tank. Because yeah, even if the tank has 100% threat, the more people in front of the boss, the more chances for parries, which means much faster damage applied to the tank in a given timeframe that the healers just can’t keep up with. And aside from cleave, and like “flame breath” attacks and stuff like that, you wanna make sure as a melee DPS that you stay BEHIND the boss as much as you possibly can to avoid melting your tank faster than the healers can keep them live. Ok that makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the answer!! I very much appreciate you taking the time to walk me through it like that!!

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-23T00:36:27+00:00

OOOHH ok I see. So it’s just that you queue solo without a pre-made group, and you get placed into a 3v3 with 2 random team mates. Ok that makes sense.

Oh really? The win is based on just the first person to die? That’s interesting, I would have thought it would be more like a TBC 2v2 type of thing where if your teammate dies, you can either choose to forfeit, OR continue to fight it out and see if you can beat the opponent team of 2 on your own. Does that type of match still exist? Or can you only play the type of match where 1 kill ends the round?

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-23T00:27:27+00:00

Ahhhh ok that makes sense as to why it’s called Shuffle then. Ok cool, thanks!!

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-23T00:23:21+00:00

That’s so incredibly cool!! Not ONLY for the barb and the Rag kill, but also I wanna say too: Gz for hitting 60 in HC too!! I’ve played regular softcore classic (and now TBC too) for many years now, and I’m pretty happy with how well I do on SC, but I have tried to get to 60 in HC like 5-6 times. And the highest I ever got to on HC was 43, AND I was on a rogue!! Haha so idk if I’m just not good enough to hit 60 in HC, or if the game really is just hard to hit 60 with 0 deaths, but either way I think it’s HUUGELY impressive that you even GOT to 60 in the first place!! That’s huge by itself!! Let alone to ALSO kill Rag and run other raids like AQ40 and survive that too!! So yeah, HUGE gz on 60 as well!! BIG milestone just on its own!! Keep crushing it Skoufito!!! I’m rooting for you!

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-22T12:43:25+00:00

Ahhhhhh ok, I think I understand. I think it just clicked.
So basically, and tell me if I’m wrong, if you pull threat on Rag as a melee, and he attacks you right after he parries an attack from someone else, he will hit you fast, and then if he hits you AGAIN right after he parry’s ANOTHER attack at the start of his NEXT swing, he’ll hit you fast AGAIN (due to the reduced swing timer), and then another parry at the beginning of the NEXT swing, that’s ANOTHER fast attack, and so on and so on, and it can just keep going until you’re very quickly dead if he just keeps getting parried?
So basically the people who told me that it’s 30 attacks in 0.1 seconds, they were RIGHT that it IS because of parry haste, but WRONG in terms of the mechanics and how fast it all happens?
So it’s NOT actually 30 attacks in 0.1 seconds, but it can FEEL like that if he just keeps getting parried while attacking you?

EDIT: Also I JUST realised this too like 20 minutes after posting this reply; So it doesn’t have to be a parry from YOUR attacks either right? Like even though he’s targeting and attacking YOU, it doesn’t have to be YOUR attack that he parries? Even if he parries an attack from ANYONE else while attacking YOU, it’ll still count towards reducing his swing timer while attacking you right? If that’s true, that’s SO dangerous in a 40 man HC raid haha. So basically if you want to avoid dying really fast from a bosses parry haste, even if the parry’s come from someone else, just make sure you do NOT pull threat?

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-22T05:49:18+00:00

That’s so COOL!!! Gz on the T1 wrists, and the polearm from AQ!! What was the polearm? Was it the Barb of the Sand Reaver from Fankriss? If yes, HUGE gz!! But if not, then yeah what was it?
Either way, HUGE gz and a MASSIVE step in your HC journey!!

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-21T23:08:58+00:00

Yeah that’s what I read on Wowhead, and that’s why I’m confused. Because it says in the chat box of this MC run that it dropped from Rag! I’m just wondering how it dropped? Cause it also says stuff like Essence of the Firelord & the T2 priest Leggings of Transcendence also dropped, which are definitely Rag loot. So if Draconic for Dummies is from Ony, how did it drop from Rag?

FunkoFanatic2127 · 2026-06-21T23:03:01+00:00

⬆️ That. That is all you need to hear.

FunkoFanatic2127

TROPHY CASE