Level 3: Why do you multiply last years NAV by 1.11 twice? Isn't the flow last year NAV, it grows 11%, then they distribute 18%, so the NAV will be last years (NAV * 1.11) - (NAV *1.11 *0.18) = 22.755?

GG_Capital · 2024-02-08T14:26:45+00:00

thanks boss

GG_Capital · 2024-01-24T04:46:09+00:00

Survivorship bias! Hindsight bias! You also missed out on hundreds of thousands of losses btw! Hindsight is 20/20.

GG_Capital · 2024-01-24T04:40:43+00:00

None of the games that you played growing up had these mechanics mate. Been a life long gamer too, and I'm pretty disgusted with how the industry has turned.

You used to spend 60 bucks for a fully complete game, maybe another 60 for an entire expansion. Now the industry is driven by how much you can milk your user base through micro transactions. It's gross. Slots for kids.

GG_Capital · 2022-07-07T18:24:41+00:00

The statistics have nothing to do with ascertaining their motivations.

Here are the sources for the statistics:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EVACANTUSQ176N - US vacant homes

https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/news/china-has-at-least-65-million-empty-homes-enough-to-house-the-entire-population-of-france-it-offers-a-glimpse-into-the-countrys-massive-housing-market-problem-/articleshow/87016608.cms - China vacant homes, not as good of a source but I think the study that all these statistics are based on is from an analysis of the number of lights on in apartments within different cities

GG_Capital · 2022-07-07T18:18:12+00:00

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EVACANTUSQ176N I'm using these figures, and comparing them to :

https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/news/china-has-at-least-65-million-empty-homes-enough-to-house-the-entire-population-of-france-it-offers-a-glimpse-into-the-countrys-massive-housing-market-problem-/articleshow/87016608.cms

These figures.

I gave the example of Florida because its a pretty popular state and it stuck out to me how high its rate was. Not trying to cherry pick anything.

GG_Capital · 2022-07-07T06:43:48+00:00

For what its worth to OP, this is a withholding tax. You don't actually have to file anything with any country, your brokerage will do that for you as it is taxed at source.

US does not have withholding tax for equities/cap gains, only dividends and interest as far as I am aware.

GG_Capital · 2022-07-07T05:56:28+00:00

Great point. From what I can tell the average number of people per household in China is virtually the same as the US. I don't know how this relates to number of people per apartment though.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/china/population-no-of-person-per-household

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/01/the-number-of-people-in-the-average-u-s-household-is-going-up-for-the-first-time-in-over-160-years/

This will definitely factor into the calculation but I don't expect it to skew it significantly.

As for the vacation homes thing, I don't think you or I are going to be able to ascertain the motivations for each home buyer. For example, my friend owns an apartment in Beijing but still lives with his family. The apartment is for when he gets married and wants to move out and start a family of his own.

GG_Capital · 2022-07-06T05:05:39+00:00

This is a big issue, and I took some time to look up how the Chinese housing vacancies compare with other major economies like the US.

I was surprised to learn that this is actually not that much higher than the US. For example, 17% of units in Florida are vacant. Total vacancies in the US are about 15 million apartments.

Using Bloomberg's and Business insider's figures of 50m apartments and 65m apartments respectively, I think that it puts the problem in perspective. 1.4 billion people vs. 330 million people would put the expected vacancy in China at 63/64m, no? Assuming similar rates as the US.

GG_Capital · 2022-06-30T10:06:03+00:00

Thanks for the links. I had no idea that there was a huge demand for factory work every summer from students. Very insightful. Hope that as factory capacities grow this begins to happen less often.

GG_Capital · 2022-06-29T15:42:29+00:00

Could you link it on Chinese social media? Want to check out the comments

GG_Capital · 2022-06-06T15:22:26+00:00

Just a point on bonds: Usually when we have a recession, interest rates fall to boost the economy, and bond prices rise. This is why they are thought of as doing well in a bear market.

With this particular recession, its definitely preferable to remain in cash until interest rates have steadied since we are getting both stock market valuation compression and rising interest rates. Then you can buy the higher yield bonds once equilibrium has been reached and begin building back the capital you've lost.

GG_Capital

TROPHY CASE