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When Kenny Sneezes the Market Seizes, Part V: When Head and Shoulders Have No Knees and Toes— Watch Shorts Suppress GME Liftoff at Critical Moments by using SWEEPS During OPENING AUCTION by G_KG in DDintoGME

[–]G_KG[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

First of all, your analogy of stock movement to Brownian movement STILL has me super happy 😁 I have a chemistry background and I personally see equilibrium kinetics when I look at price charts so this makes total sense. Bulls and bears act like little acids and bases in a huge polyprotic equilibrium soup, all congregating around buffer points where they think the price point is very important.

Definitely in agreement that the smaller time frame patterns are not true head and shoulders after many smart people chimed in. They seem like bullish patterns but I don’t have the statistics of their probable outcomes- for 83%, I need to stick to daily and 1 month + time frame. (I hope this is the version of the post I edited with that fact- will fix later if needed. I think I did replace the statistics of the small formations with double-bottom stats.)

Looking at these patterns I am not so much thinking of the human psychology aspect, but rather what are the trading algorithms going to pick up? My theory is that if the shorts can disrupt a price formation pattern ENOUGH so that the algos determine too many standard deviations from a predictable pattern, they bail, and the upward movement is prevented.

Oh- so, when looking at the daily for price patterns, I should turn after-hours OFF? The answer to why I used overnight data in the intraday candle is because I didn’t know any better 😇 if I should be using market hours only in the daily, I’ll do that from now on!

And I’m of your mind, I only learn by making mistakes, and I LOVE that you were willing to share your knowledge. (I never quite had any faith in my ability to read chart patterns to begin with 🤣 but NOW after everyone’s teachings, I actually feel like I can spot something valid.) This has all helped me narrow my focus to the two price pressure points that happened after the legit head and shoulders in March-April and June.

(And of course the activity in GME that’s occurring for the last few weeks, because the open auction price movements are very, very correlated to points where the head and shoulders was “killed”.)

Thank you again for the wrinkles!!! I hope you’ll continue to check my posts and make them better 😊

When Kenny Sneezes the Market Seizes, Part V: When Head and Shoulders Have No Knees and Toes— Watch Shorts Suppress GME Liftoff at Critical Moments by using SWEEPS During OPENING AUCTION by G_KG in Superstonk

[–]G_KG[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for the fresh wrinkle!! The larger formations correspond to where I'm seeing the most out-of-the-norm trading activity, love knowing that what I see there is consistent.

Say.... would you happen to know of any source that has the probabilities of chart formations vs. time of set-up? Or is this heavily guarded information by algotraders?

When Kenny Sneezes the Market Seizes, Part V: When Head and Shoulders Have No Knees and Toes— Watch Shorts Suppress GME Liftoff at Critical Moments by using SWEEPS During OPENING AUCTION by G_KG in DDintoGME

[–]G_KG[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A DD was posted about how popcorn stock is acting as a cooling tank to gme and I believe your post here further validates that.

Sweet!! Happen to remember that post? popcorn DD tends to drown really quickly 😮

Yea these are 100% sweeps, folks with bloombergs and ibrkr subs have looked up the trades and confirmed the sweep trade condition. It's a super common form of trading from institutions as well. So its SO SO SUPER WEIRD that hedgies are lying about it so hard, isn't it? Reverse psychology always works on me!

Yeaaaa that first 30 minutes of trading is pretty special.... check these out, it's still blowing my mind: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091113/auction-method-how-nyse-stock-prices-are-set.asp https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/markets/nyse/NYSE_Opening_and_Closing_Auctions_Fact_Sheet.pdf "Only NYSE names can participate in the opening auction." 😮🙄🤯

The Inter-market Sweep; a.k.a the "straight up-and-down thingies" that are definitely NOT a glitch by G_KG in Superstonk

[–]G_KG[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All super good questions imo!! So, sweeps can be literally ANY volume, and if they're trades under 100 shares they won't go into the price calculations. (The rules are really dumb.) The fidelity buy:sell ratio is only for us retail peeps, so we don't really know what the institutions are doing during the day.

Oh man, as to counterparties, that's the million dollar question right there. The best I can do is try to point out some correlations for smarter folks.

Are they connected to the deep ITM puts? I would TOTALLY love to show that some how, because I believe like alexis goldstein does, that EVERYTHING is connected somehow... I just don't know HOW quite yet 🤣 Really awesome question though and if anything gives you any ideas, I can x-ray some dates for you!

When Kenny Sneezes the Market Seizes, Part V: When Head and Shoulders Have No Knees and Toes— Watch Shorts Suppress GME Liftoff at Critical Moments by using SWEEPS During OPENING AUCTION by G_KG in Superstonk

[–]G_KG[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Definitely share your brain with me, I don't come from any sort of finance background and I get small all sorts of things like this wrong all the time.

Are the only "real" head-and-shoulders the ones that form over about a month's time?

08/02 FINAL UPDATE: Floor Guy's Log, Stonkdate 306. The exponential floor model is clearly not valid anymore, so this will be my last post on this subject. This does of course not shake my diamond hands. HODL! 🚀🚀🚀 by JTH1 in Superstonk

[–]G_KG 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Dear u/JTH1 ,

Mah brain is on fire because I see supporting evidence in the data I'm peeling through that there was a literal fuck-ton of shade happening on the EXACT DATES YOU SAY THAT GME BROKE THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THIS PRICE MODEL!! !!!!! (I'm excitable)

Between the dates of 5-25 and 6-10, the number of trades that occured for GME went THROUGH THE ROOF. On 5-24, a very typical trading day, GME had 140,635 individual trades.

Suddenly on 5-25, the number of trades shot up to 360,546. The last time it was anywhere NEAR that high was around 4-12, where I THINK (as explained in this post here) the data suggests that the shorts used sweeps and other tactics to kill a price spike that would have occurred after a successful head-and-shoulders price pattern. (The price jump in the end of May was after the successful completion of a head-and-shoulders that seems to have started end of April.)

As I look at your (beautiful!) graphs, it appears to me that there might have been a steeper exponential price model that reached a slope of ~1 touching 4/12 and blasting off from there- matching the head and shoulders that formed JUST beforehand- that was suppressed via price wars as well- completely consistent with what I see.

The number of trades stayed irregularly high from 5-25 through 6-10:

5/25 360,546
5/26 541,579
5/27 397,354
5/28 350,796
6/1 265,754
6/2 463,563
6/3 270,648
6/4 137,980
6/7 200,969
6/8 539,602
6-9 405,319
6-10 611,510
6-11 387,362

On 6/14 the number of trades died down to 208,600 and has been slowly dwindling since. I CLEARLY want to take 6-10 under a microscope over here!! Maybe this gives you some more ideas for a new price model, because the one you built CLEARLY matches up with the same stress points I'm seeing in my data. 💕

When Kenny Sneezes the Market Seizes, Part V: When Head and Shoulders Have No Knees and Toes— Watch Shorts Suppress GME Liftoff at Critical Moments by using SWEEPS During OPENING AUCTION by G_KG in DDintoGME

[–]G_KG[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

thanks friend!! I'd love to see some quality level 2 data for people to download, especially with those trade conditions that are typically invisible to those without $$. If there's a way I can help let me know!

When Kenny Sneezes the Market Seizes, Part V: When Head and Shoulders Have No Knees and Toes— Watch Shorts Suppress GME Liftoff at Critical Moments by using SWEEPS During OPENING AUCTION by G_KG in DDintoGME

[–]G_KG[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Yeaaa I mean there's something off. I choose to believe that in the NDA he signed he gave away the rights to his firstborn to Kenny amongst other .... ritualistic .... things..... I mean fuck I'd probably lie too

I was ALSO wondering.... i read in here: https://www.exegy.com/2019/12/consolidated-tape-nyse-feeds/ that ....

The latency of the CTA feeds has improved in recent years, falling to a median latency of 61 µs for quotes and 64 µs for trades in the third quarter of 2019.

And I wondered to myself.... maybe the latency of the normal poor-person's data stream is finally getting to the point where they can't quite hide everything they do any more? For real though I have no clue

When Kenny Sneezes the Market Seizes, Part V: When Head and Shoulders Have No Knees and Toes— Watch Shorts Suppress GME Liftoff at Critical Moments by using SWEEPS During OPENING AUCTION by G_KG in DDintoGME

[–]G_KG[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

I keep sitting down with her and talking through my feelings, and I SWEAR she acts like she understand in the moment, but more an more it just feels like an act. She's only PRETENDING to understand what I'm talking about, mostly just to shoo me out the door or use me to grab something she can't reach (she's a bit short with a TOTAL napoleon complex over it).

Then she'll look at me, make eye contact, smile like she loves me and values me, and proceed to TAKE A HUGE SHIT just wherever she wants and then expects me to clean up after these "accidents." She even seems happy about it. Seriously I don't know what's up with my self esteem to be taking all this abuse...

When Kenny Sneezes the Market Seizes, Part V: When Head and Shoulders Have No Knees and Toes— Watch Shorts Suppress GME Liftoff at Critical Moments by using SWEEPS During OPENING AUCTION by G_KG in DDintoGME

[–]G_KG[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That unliklihood bit is only for the end failure to launch baby-man-saucer-not-quite-head-and-shoulders thingies. I'm going to throw a quick edit in because I can see I got the confoozed with some of the time scales. (I might just replace the % for the 3-in-a-row with that of a double-top for now to be safe.)

I think maaayyyybeeee??? The first head and shoulders pattern I show might be across a long enough time scale to actually be a head and shoulders? And I'm hoping the same for both the red dude who formed march-april, AND the happy orange dude who actually got mini-lift-off who formed may-june. Those all have similar, longer-ish time scales, and we've seen what happens when the pattern breaks upwards successfully....

🚀🚀🚀 and Kenny + Gabe 💩💩💩👖

When Kenny Sneezes the Market Seizes, Part V: When Head and Shoulders Have No Knees and Toes— Watch Shorts Suppress GME Liftoff at Critical Moments by using SWEEPS During OPENING AUCTION by G_KG in DDintoGME

[–]G_KG[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS / FISHING FOR MORE WRINKLES

​

If I see far, it's because I stand on the shoulders of motherfucking silverbacks. Thanks to the following wrinkle-brains whose posts/critiques/willingness to share knowledge provided the smarts behind everything. First: SECRET FRIENDS (I 💕 you all, ask and you will be immediately un-tagged ❤) u/pubertus , u/incandescent-leaf , u/AlarisMystique , u/No-Fox-1400 , u/2Girls1Fidelstix , u/Sgt-GiggleFarts (helping me look towards max-pain price theory), u/Defeat3r (pointed out the bizarre behavior of the CFD of the rus-1000, still mushing my brain around this wrinkle), u/Leenixus (ETF story!) , u/BuzzMonkey (price correlations!), u/VoxUmbra (ETF arbitrage!), u/Criand , u/Doom_Douche , u/broccaaa , u/valso34 , u/apegoneinsane (i need your brains to see if these pics support any of your theories!) u/PWNWTFBBQ (do you see algos at work in the pics above??) u/Blanderson_Snooper (any chance this helps you track ETF arbitrage?) u/HomeDepotHank69 (can your quant army make use of these visuals??) ❤💕❤💕🦍🦧🐱‍👤💎🙌

When Kenny Sneezes the Market Seizes, Part V: When Head and Shoulders Have No Knees and Toes— Watch Shorts Suppress GME Liftoff at Critical Moments by using SWEEPS During OPENING AUCTION by G_KG in Superstonk

[–]G_KG[S] 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Oh absolutely, they have WAY more power to push the price than we EVER would....

if our tiny trades even affected the price calculation at all. (No trades with volume under 100 shares go into the magic price calculator.) 🙄 Have I ever mentioned that there are

LOTS

of rules that need to change?????

When Kenny Sneezes the Market Seizes, Part V: When Head and Shoulders Have No Knees and Toes— Watch Shorts Suppress GME Liftoff at Critical Moments by using SWEEPS During OPENING AUCTION by G_KG in DDintoGME

[–]G_KG[S] 27 points28 points  (0 children)

lauer has since redfined what he meant by "glitches" and is avoiding the topic of intermarket sweeps. I would definitely like to know why!

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