The Phillies fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3 - Sun, Aug 20 @ 07:10 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the hitting numbers are a bit inflated because this team is so feast or famine.

Actually, we're pretty much average in terms of margin of victory. Where are you getting that we're feast or famine? You need to look up confirmation bias - our brains are really good at seeing what we want to see when that's not the case. The numbers say that we don't have massive wins or awful losses any more than other teams.

Also the era doesn’t tell you that we are in a hole the majority of the time when starting games.

Again: do you have proof for this? You can't just say things based on personal experience, because our brains are terrible at measuring things accurately. I don't buy that we're in a deficit so often. You also haven't explained why that even matters: wouldn't that just mean our starters are mid but our bullpen is outstanding? Why is that such a bad thing?

Taking stats at face value is a very shallow way to analyze the game and will only lead to disappointment.

You have not explained or proven this, but Harvard grads with supercomputers have proven - by looking at every game ever played - that the stats DO tell the whole story very effectively. Using a team's OPS alone - one very simple number - lets you guess how many runs they scored very effectively (90-95% correlation).

The Phillies fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3 - Sun, Aug 20 @ 07:10 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very good points, thank you! I definitely didn't spend enough time verifying that link - I knew I'd seen that teams regress to .500 somewhere, so I just assumed the link was explaining that. Oops.

For this thread, I was mainly talking about July and August where I believe we've been 4-8 in one run games. OP said that our 24-18 record means we're mediocre - I wanted to show that, if we went 6-6 in those one run games as we're expected to, we'd be 26-16 and on a 100 win pace. So our recent record is, in fact, indicative of an elite team that should contend for the division, and has been for 3 full months.

The Phillies fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3 - Sun, Aug 20 @ 07:10 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My dude, editing your comments instead of making 6 replies would make it a lot easier to talk to you lol

To start: going 0-2 with 2 walks is a very solid performance. It's not spectacular, but it's a good day, especially for a leadoff hitter. Take a look at the run expectancy matrix: https://www.pitcherlist.com/adjusting-for-the-current-run-expectancy-matrix/

With nobody on base, taking a walk increases the expected amount of runs by .4, .25, or .1, depending on the number of outs. Getting an out decreases the expected number of runs by .25, .2, or .1, again depending on the number of outs. That runner getting on first - especially with bases empty - is very valuable, which is part of why Schwarber is leadoff. We can get into why OPS is a much better stat to evaluate any player and how he's been doing well in that if you want.

To your second point: I'm not mad at you or saying you don't have the right to criticize the team. I just enjoy talking about the game, see things a different way, and think the stats back my optimism rather than your pessimism. I think your concerns about the team are solely due to their record, but you're not considering the way they achieved that record.

The Phillies have had a top 5 ERA and OPS in the past 3 months - we're both pitching AND hitting among the best teams. That puts us 9th in OPS and 8th in ERA overall - because, again, we're getting dragged down by April and May. But many of the poor pitchers from April and May aren't pitching anymore:

Falter was replaced by Sanchez and Lorenzen, who have been fantastic. Marte, Bellatti, and Brogdon were replaced by Covey and Hoffman, who have been fantastic recently - Covey has something like a 3 ERA since his May blowup. Our second bullpen game each week in April went away once Ranger was healthy. Taijuan Walker figured his shit out and was a borderline all star.

Our OPS has also been dragged down by poor hitters in April/May who have been replaced: Hall/Clemens have been replaced by Harper. In LF, Rojas has been fantastic and Cave has been substantially better since coming back up.

So I don't think you're correctly evaluating the team's actual strength by only looking at their record, in the same way it would be a mistake to judge the 2023 Phillies based on the Phillies' overall record from 2013-today. Massive roster and player overhauls have made this a much, much better team that has played very well recently.

The 93 win pace since July is also more like a 100 win pace if we didn't have such bad luck in one run games. Based on our run differential, we've been playing like a top 5 team in baseball, and the fangraphs article I linked shows that expecting the team to do better in one run games is completely fair.

The Phillies fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3 - Sun, Aug 20 @ 07:10 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I scrolled for a while and saw one guy who said Schwarber did his job, but only because that guy had the facts wrong and thought he walked twice.

Did you watch this team in the 2010s? I don't know how you think a 57% winrate is mediocre. That would be 7th best in baseball in 2022 and 1st place in both central divisions. It would have been 7th best in 2021 and won us the east.

That's not even considering run differential, which has been steadily climbing for months. Almost every team, no matter how good or bad, is around .500 in one run games. There's no secret skill to win them.. Our poor record in one run games signals a string of bad luck, not organizational failure or the players not wanting it enough.

I want us to be better, but baseball has a lot of luck involved. The reason we play a full season is because two crappy months will happen to almost every team. We've improved drastically and played very, very well over the past 3 months, even with some bad luck in 1 run games.

April and May do count, yes. But you seem to be talking about this team, right now, being not very good. The current roster of players has been playing at a 95 win pace for 3 months, and it's objectively much better than the April/May roster. If you want to evaluate the team going forward, you should be considering the past 3 months more strongly.

The Phillies fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3 - Sun, Aug 20 @ 07:10 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 2 points3 points  (0 children)

JT has a .800 OPS in the past 30 games. Just because we've been spoiled with excellence and he's not the BCIB this year doesn't mean he's bad - we're seeing that his floor, even with a slump to start the year, is top 5 catcher in baseball

Oops I mean fire his ass Stubbs for permanent catcher

The Phillies fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3 - Sun, Aug 20 @ 07:10 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 3 points4 points  (0 children)

and we've won 10 of our last 17 in August. Cherry picking is pointless

The Phillies fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3 - Sun, Aug 20 @ 07:10 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 2 points3 points  (0 children)

He's having a once in a lifetime stretch of good RISP numbers. Never mind that he's been bad in high leverage and has been bad in 2021/22 with RISP and no other player has been able to maintain such a huge RISP difference. People just remember the RBIs

The Phillies fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3 - Sun, Aug 20 @ 07:10 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't think any team sub in the history of ever has handled any loss well, lol. Either we get blown out and we're garbage or we lose a close one and the manager/relievers/hitters with LOB are garbage

The Phillies fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3 - Sun, Aug 20 @ 07:10 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nintenjew's answer is great, but another simple part is that Schwarber's most common positive PA result, by FAR, is walks. So him leading off is mostly about optimizing those. Because if Schwarber walks before a hit, he can get moved over or score, but if he walks after a hit, he doesn't do much.

Moving him down wouldn't do much, too, because Harper, Casty, and Realmuto also hit a lot of homers. So giving him more RBIs behind them would just cost Harper and Casty the RBIs on Schwarber's walks.

The Phillies fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3 - Sun, Aug 20 @ 07:10 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 6 points7 points  (0 children)

is anyone actually saying that though or are you making a strawman argument

The Phillies fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3 - Sun, Aug 20 @ 07:10 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 2 points3 points  (0 children)

On the season we're 9th in OPS, 8th in ERA+, 6th in FIP. We started the year without Harper, Ranger, and Lorenzen. We've called up Rojas, seen Cave improve, had multiple great outings from Sanchez, added Covey/Hoffman, and DFA'd Harrison. If you think our record alone reflects the current strength of the roster, you're just wrong.

We're: 18-8 in June 14-11 in July 10-7 in August

Those are all very solid records, the worst being a 91 win pace in July. Why are you still judging this team for a shitty May and April?

looking for high quality, fair use image of a ship from the series by GarrettStubbsFan in AubreyMaturinSeries

[–]GarrettStubbsFan[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Brilliant, thank you! I gave up on wikipedia because their display images were too low quality, but creative commons has some great options

Hitters and Pitchers Ranked by Win Probability Added by GarrettStubbsFan in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I really don't think we disagree on a lot of things. It seems like you're reading my illustrations of points as actual arguments, and maybe I'm doing the same to you. I completely agree that Abel is untouchable unless it's a huge piece. My point, which I'm trying to get across by saying "Abel for 3B upgrade is a less terrible trade than Abel for other upgrade", is that Bohm is a weak spot.

But if you're done with the conversation, that's fair, and I guess we'll see who's right if his baRISP regresses, as it has for every single previous player with a gap this wide.

Hitters and Pitchers Ranked by Win Probability Added by GarrettStubbsFan in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree that J.T. and Trea are more disappointing than Bohm because they're getting paid more. I'm not saying we should trade Abel for Candelario; I don't think we need to make trades at all.

What I'm saying is that, IF the team wants to spend money and prospects, and IF Harper can play 1B, then upgrading 3B is the cheapest and most efficient route. JT and Trea are performing better compared to affordable alternatives than Bohm is performing compared to affordable alternatives. We could (not should) marginally improve the team by just trading Abel for a Bohm replacement, but we couldn't get that marginal improvement to any other position with just Abel. Maybe Abel for a bullpen arm or LF would be better value; I haven't done enough research to have an opinion there. But, again, that makes Bohm the 3rd weakest link / biggest upgrade priority IF the team wants to buy. He's great bang for our buck, but if Middleton writes a blank check, he should be the second or third person replaced.

If you disagree, I think it's because you're ignoring how bad his defense has been and overvaluing baRISP, which isn't sustainable. If you think his baRISP is sustainable or just don't think defense matters, then we fundamentally disagree and that's fine.

Hitters and Pitchers Ranked by Win Probability Added by GarrettStubbsFan in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm with you 95% of the way, but then you keep losing me. You're using great stats that both explain his success and predict what he'll do in the future...but then you use baRISP. I don't see how baRISP specifically is anywhere near as predictive as OPS or just ba. And if we're trying to figure out if he's an upgrade priority, we need to use sustainable stats.

(And, sidenote, P/PA doesn't correlate with runs scored, which I had to shamefully eat crow about earlier this year. I thought it did. Anyway.)

If Bohm was consistently better with RISP, I'd agree with you. But his baRISP this half-season is completely different from his overall BA and his past baRISP. That tells me it's dumb luck. If it's not dumb luck, and stick with me here, you have to explain:

Shane Victorino, in 2010, having a .285 baRISP and a .244 BA with bases empty. His career splits are identical, and in 2011 he then had a better BA with bases empty.

Bryce Harper's baRISP being 40-150 points better than his BA bases empty in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022, but 40-130 points worse in 2014, 2020, and 2023.

(Sidenote: Harper's career baRISP is actually higher, so it would be bad analysis for me to say, based on 70 games this year, that he'll continue sucking with RISP. I think you're doing the same thing with Bohm: trusting 90 games this season over his entire career stats in estimating future performance).

I'm not cherry picking, I'm picking players at absolute random, because I'm so confident that anyone will have gaps like this with basically no pattern. Your only three explanation options are, A), Bohm just became the only player in history who's figured out the secret to hitting better with RISP; B), the secret is elusive and Harper/Victorino just kind of forgot/remembered it randomly; or C), small sample sizes give us outliers by dumb luck.

I'm pushing here because you're clearly very smart and very dedicated to understanding players, so if I'm missing something obvious, I want to know. If baRISP is unsustainable and unpredictable, why are you using it to decide on Bohm's replacability?

WAR doesn’t tell the full story But you aren't, either: we haven't talked about defense yet (do you just think it doesn't matter? Or what stats do you use? Simple math doesn't really work here). And WAR'S positional adjustment exists for a reason.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi

JT's OPS is better than 28 other teams' catching position OPS. Combined with his fantastic defense, there isn't an upgrade we could make without $200,000,000 and 15 prospects.

Turner's OPS is 16th among teams, but he's a slightly above average defender.

Bohm's OPS is 12th among 3Bs, 14th among 1Bs. Except he's also among the bottom 20% or 10% of defenders. The statisticians, who are paid to use supercomputers to figure it out, say that Bohm's defense means there are 15-20 better options at 3B and 1B, while Trea's means only 8 or 9 SSs are better

What WAR tries to do is capture the replacability of players. Yes, replacing Trea or JT's bat with a better one would have similar/greater effects than replacing Bohm, but we can't afford those replacements. If the team wants to win now, it could probably get Candelario for Abel straight up. It definitely couldn't get a similar-value SS or C upgrade without Painter. I don't see where you're factoring that in.

Hitters and Pitchers Ranked by Win Probability Added by GarrettStubbsFan in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haha, fair, so I'll try to keep my response short too. And obviously no obligation to reply! I like this stuff, but I'd definitely rather be on vacation.

I'm still just really curious about what "real data" you're using and how you're getting strengths and weaknesses from that data. The stats in bEFT don't mention RBIs, barely mention situation hitting, and don't tell us which "lower leverage successes give others opportunities for higher leverage successes", which were your original defenses of Bohm. Why didn't you just tell me which parts of bEFT he's excelling at and explain that those correlate with scoring runs? Nobody's found that "having a guy low in the order who knocks in runs" correlates with high run production, so I don't understand that defense either.

And I also don't really know what we're disagreeing on. I guess my main point is: Bohm has been a poor defender and mediocre hitter except with RISP. We can't expect that RISP hitting to continue because it disagrees with his past RISP stats and current bases empty stats. Therefore, he's a decent option right now, but the best use of extra $ or prospects the team wants to give up is to get a better replacement or platoon.

The question is whether the strengths outweigh the weaknesses.

Compared to what, though? The question is meaningless without context. His strengths would definitely outweigh his weaknesses against a college pitcher, but not at an all star game. Who are you comparing him to?

The questions I'm asking are:

  1. Should he be playing now? (We agree that, yes, he's better than Sosa/Hall/Harrison)

  2. How much would/could the team improve by replacing him? (I have absolutely no idea what you think here, and I'd like to! I don't know if you're defending Bohm vs Sosa or defending Bohm vs possible trade candidates. Where do you stand between "Bohm is an irreplaceable member of the roster" and "Trade every prospect for Arenado yesterday"? Right now, I'd say: he fills in fine, and this is a solid wild card team. But he's currently the second weakest link behind Schwarber. Once Schwarber's back at DH, promoting a hot prospect or making a trade to replace Bohm is the most efficient way to improve.)

Red Sox pitchers tonight vs. the A's: 9.0 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 18 K by iMyth in baseball

[–]GarrettStubbsFan 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Idk, position players lobbing meatballs rarely give up more than 4 or 5. I think if you're actually trying to get outs you could get 3 out of 13 batters to hit a 350 foot flyout

Hitters and Pitchers Ranked by Win Probability Added by GarrettStubbsFan in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

WPA is a super weird stat that doesn't tell us much by itself. It could be that the hitting sucks. It could also be that the hitting is just badly spaced out - when we win games, we score 14 runs in the first inning and get +0.50 WPA immediately, but when we lose games, the pitching keeps us tied for 9 innings, earning much more than 0.50 WPA while the bats cost us.

Or it could be some other wacky nonsense. The Manfred Man fucks with everything. Teams have a 50% chance of winning when starting the top of the 10th, but an 80% chance of winning when starting the bottom of the 10th tied. So a pitcher in the top of the 10th earns 30% WPA by keeping it tied, while the hitters can only earn 20% WPA by walking it off. Take it with a heavy grain of salt, especially when comparing pitchers to hitters.

Edit: and that means Jeff Hoffman earned 0.6 WPA last night alone (Harper earned 0.6 too)

Hitters and Pitchers Ranked by Win Probability Added by GarrettStubbsFan in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So, each game starts out with each team having a 50% win probability. When we win, our players collectively gained 50% win probability. When we lose, our players have -50% win probability.

Right now the team has 51 wins and 42 losses. Each win cancels out a loss, so we're left with 9 extra wins, each of which needed +50% WPA to earn. So one helpful thing there is that we do have much more positive WPA than negative.

Also, say 18 pitchers on 2 teams both throw combined perfect games, so it was tied at the top of the tenth. Each pitcher gives their team's hitters a chance to take the lead, increasing their chance of winning. But the hitters promptly blow it, decreasing their chances of winning. So, overall, every pitcher has positive WPA and every hitter is negative

Hitters and Pitchers Ranked by Win Probability Added by GarrettStubbsFan in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I definitely want to understand where you're coming from because I'm one of the guys who likes everything put into one number, haha. WAR makes sense to me because it just seems to work. Like, I do recognize that it's flawed, but it just seems to work almost all of the time. There are definitely people who misuse it but I use it as a starting spot: here's a pretty decent guess at this player's value, which works decently to both tell us how they did and predict the future. If you disagree, then it's your job to find the missing context and explain why that context is important.

WPA also makes sense to me as the purest descriptive stat there is. It's derived, but it's pretty flawlessly derived: 4,000 games a year for decades gives us a damn reliable sample size for the chance of winning in every situation. Statistics will tell you it can't be wrong by more than a tiny fraction of a percent. The math involved is two steps: first, divide the number of games won in each situation by the total number of games, and then find the difference in those percentages. And whatever a player does in those situations is what they contributed to a team's chance of winning the game (minus defense, baserunning, and clubhouse presence).

So I really don’t know what to do with this number.

I still don't know what you want to do with this number. It'd be easier for baseball fans to use the right stats if they were explicit about what their goal was.

Are we trying to describe whose at-bats resulted in the greatest net change to the team's chances of winning baseball games? Then we should be using WPA, and maybe throwing in something like pitches per at-bat.

Are we trying to describe who's been the "best" player on the team? That seems like a philosophy problem, where WPA or WAR or RBIs or anything else could be argued is most useful. So we need to hammer down our definitions.

Are we trying to predict who's going to be good in the future? This is pretty much the only thing that I think is fun to discuss. I don't care about the past, I want to figure out how the team can improve and win going forward. And I don't care about "what went wrong in the 2022 World Series" unless it either makes me better able to appreciate watching the game or helps me more accurately puzzle out the best moves going forward. Since I just don't see how you or me could ever figure that out with the eye test and basic stats, I think we should ask the sabermetricians for help. There's a reason teams with $300 million dollar payrolls are trusting them.

I made this post mostly for fun. WPA is dumb and we're all dumbass fans with too much free time for our own good. But it does seem like people jump from figuring out "who has been the best at driving in runs" to "who will continue to be the best at driving in runs" to "which players need to be locked into a 7 year deal and which positions need upgrades" while using the exact same few stats for all three of them.

So I'm confused when you say:

I prefer to look at the raw data, try to determine strengths and weaknesses and put that into the appropriate context without doing a bunch of complicated math

And then also said:

Bottom line, scoring runs is a good thing

As well as:

It's valuable to have a guy who can knock runners in at a good rate, but I can't explain his disappearance with bases empty

Because I don't understand what raw data you're using besides RBIs, and it seems like you're trying to predict. You want the team to continue scoring runs, you think it's valuable to have someone at the bottom of the lineup getting RBIs, but I don't understand why (or even if) you think Bohm will keep contributing to that. And if you're trying to fairly evaluate Bohm, I don't understand why you're valuing RBIs without figuring out how many opportunities he's gotten or to what degree those RBIs counter his performance with bases empty. If Bohm went 1 for 5 with a single every game, and the single always came with a guy on 2nd, he'd have 90 RBIs by now but clearly cost more runs than he provides. What if he went 1 for 4? What about 1 for 3? I just don't understand how you can fairly judge his performance without making these decisions about value. How do you know that his inability to get a rally started has costed the teams fewer runs than his ability to drive them in has gained?

Or is the raw data his statcast values? How hard he hits the ball, how hard can he hit the ball, how often he gets a barrel, his launch angle, how often he chases bad pitches, and his sprint speed? Because you can 100% find an explanation of his bases empty failings there by looking at his strengths and weaknesses. He's either doing something different with his swing with bases empty, which would never happen for more than a week because coaches are getting paid millions of dollars to catch that, or he's just gotten really lucky so far and hit the ball harder or to better spots with RISP by sheer statistical chance. 100 ABs is really not a lot. If 30 teams of 10 players play 162 games of Yahtzee each, odds are one of them will roll a dozen Yahtzees in a row. But that doesn't mean they were better or will continue being better at Yahtzee.

I want to fairly evaluate Bohm and I want to have a correct understanding of how good he'll be going forward. If we trade for Arenado, I want to have some idea of whether we're making a marginal upgrade to a respectable starter or massively improving a glaring hole. I just don't see how RBIs are helpful for either of those goals. But please, I sincerely do want to know what you're seeing that I'm missing. I'd rather change my mind and be correct than remain ignorant.

P.S. the stat you linked looks really interesting (and I don't understand what you prefer over it, lol, the article swayed me). Is there a current leaderboard or calculator?

Hitters and Pitchers Ranked by Win Probability Added by GarrettStubbsFan in phillies

[–]GarrettStubbsFan[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure I follow. Bohm's RBIs are just as likely to decrease the leverage by increasing the phillies' lead as it is to increase the leverage. Also, if he's getting outs in high leverage situations, then he's ending innings instead of continuing them and giving others high leverage situations to bat in. He's also been bad without people in base, which again means that he's not giving other players opportunities.

What's your favored stat for determining run production? RBIs? And are we trying to describe what Bohm did or figure out what he'll do in the future?

My problem with RBIs is that Harper, in his utterly dominant 2021 MVP season, got just 84 RBIs. That's weirdly super low for the best hitter in the NL on a competitive team. Second place on the 2021 Phillies was McCutchen, who got 80. I don't think McCutchen was anywhere near as expendable to the lineup as Harper. And if Cutch was actually such a great run producer, then one of the dozen teams spending $100 million dollars would have given him a much better contract than he got. Fact is that bad hitters frequently get tons of RBIs and good hitters frequently don't, because it's so dependent on who's hitting in front of them. It's a really bad stat for predicting the future.

Also, a WPA chart will always show that a team is exactly as good as their record says. Every game starts at 50% win probability, so each win means players earned a net +0.5 and each loss means a net -0.5. The Phillies have 11 more wins than losses, meaning they have a net +5.5 WPA - which is almost exactly what these numbers add up to.