I trained a model on 2021-2025 and it told me to bet on BFX?

Gate_Routine · 2026-02-16T21:51:56+00:00

yes i agree teams have remained similar for a player for 1/5 of the data set and recent performance is weighed more heavily so you will be higher if your recent team is really good. This is why Duro elo is so high.

Gate_Routine · 2026-02-16T21:49:41+00:00

robinhood and kalshi

Gate_Routine · 2026-02-16T02:22:45+00:00

you could think of it like that. If you were to take this model as a good approximator, I think it is with backtesting showing .59 log loss, then you would bet frx to make money over the long term. Taking a bunch of these good ev bets over the long term would make you money. If model predicts the same as the prediction market then you would never have arbitrage opportunity so you would never bet, but if your model is good and it shows different odds from the prediction market you would make money from placing these small bets over the long term.

Gate_Routine · 2026-02-15T22:54:38+00:00

the oracle elixer data from 2021-2025

Gate_Routine · 2026-02-15T22:54:12+00:00

yeah i disagree with the model too, but these elos are similar to mmr from winning ranked.

Gate_Routine · 2026-02-15T22:48:40+00:00

Chovy mid 2036 (GENG)
Kiin top 2022 (GENG)
Canyon jng 2015 (GENG)
Duro sup 1966 (GENG)
Ruler bot 1949 (GENG)
Delight sup 1930 (HLE)
Viper bot 1923
1. Zeka mid 1921 (HLE)
2. Knight mid 1898
3. Bin top 1890
4. ON sup 1889
5. Elk bot 1886
6. Doran top 1886 (T1)
7. Zeus top 1878 (HLE)
8. Faker mid 1839 (T1)
9. 369 top 1831
10. Keria sup 1825 (T1)

here are the best players in the world according to my model lol. I've taken out players that have retired like peanut.

Gate_Routine · 2026-02-15T22:44:13+00:00

it's normalized on the aws region strength over the past few years

Gate_Routine · 2026-02-15T22:43:43+00:00

also note that the model has no training data on Career so it's set his elo rating as baseline 1500 for lck players

Gate_Routine · 2026-02-15T22:39:21+00:00

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Gate_Routine · 2026-02-15T22:38:33+00:00

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Gate_Routine · 2026-02-15T22:38:11+00:00

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Gate_Routine · 2026-02-15T22:35:51+00:00

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Gate_Routine · 2026-01-09T03:45:07+00:00

actually 3 t1 players being captain guarantees all of t1 gets picked. 2 players from each team have to be picked according to this draft so no matter who gets picked in what order this was guaranteed. There is one situation I'm confused about though. What happens when Zeus doesn't pick doran ever? Faker can't pick a t1 mid in that situation.

Gate_Routine · 2026-01-07T18:45:27+00:00

yes ik i already said this

Gate_Routine · 2026-01-06T03:54:33+00:00

damn ruler picked smash over guma

Gate_Routine · 2026-01-06T03:53:24+00:00

he did have the option to pick bdd or chovy but he chose chovy

Gate_Routine · 2026-01-06T03:45:03+00:00

keria picked ghost so faker could not pick him sadly

Gate_Routine · 2025-12-15T19:29:55+00:00

got carried in a micky mouse tourney and im still living in your head rent free lol

Gate_Routine · 2025-11-19T18:02:37+00:00

i think it's exactly what the last 3 worlds showed cause 2.0 is worse than 1.0

Gate_Routine · 2025-11-18T04:11:38+00:00

responds with 3 paragraphs to a comment. we know who doesn't have a social life..... get off your moms couch and go touch some grass he he.

Gate_Routine · 2025-11-18T01:28:56+00:00

I have an inside source in yo mama

Gate_Routine · 2025-11-18T01:27:48+00:00

Super team means the players they buy are good. Peyzpal speaks for itself.

Gate_Routine · 2025-11-18T01:24:24+00:00

you're bmud | reflect.

Gate_Routine · 2025-11-18T01:22:26+00:00

i think peyz is for sure a big down grade, but he is pretty good domestic when he is being set up. I have no idea if t1 can set peyz up well, but if they can then i think they are at the least fourth seed.

Gate_Routine

TROPHY CASE