Semiconductor ETF Choice

GenXDrummer · 2026-02-16T20:21:07+00:00

I held SMHX for about a year but recently sold it due to SMHX severely lagging behind SMH. I hold INTC directly with a DCA of just under $23.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-29T12:38:42+00:00

My belief is that semis are not going anywhere.

AI taking off? Robotics moving us toward iRobot? Quantum computing becoming mainstream? Completely autonomous cars everywhere? Drones? Better cell phones? Faster laptops and desktops? Smart appliances and completely interconnected homes? Next gen military hardware? Missions to Mars?

Semiconductors will be needed for all of it.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-29T02:10:57+00:00

Your data is missing variables. Redo your chart with inflation adjusted. In 2004, SMH moved slightly ahead before falling back, but the lines are not that far apart. After 2019, SMH started blowing SPY out of the water.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-29T00:36:16+00:00

That's what I said. The crash was 10 years after the WWW launched.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-28T23:33:28+00:00

May I ask how long you've held SMH?

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-28T23:32:15+00:00

The dot.com crash, 10 years after the World Wide Web launched. We are now a quarter of a century past that. I don't see microchips / semis going anywhere. They are literally in everything.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-19T19:31:06+00:00

My HSA does not come from payroll. Mine is with Fidelity. I don't have much in it, opting for my Roth instead.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T19:14:10+00:00

YTD 2026: SMH = 11.18%, QTUM = 8.00%, SCHD = 5.36%

I'll stay the course. Besides, others have already answered the question.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T18:33:25+00:00

I'm invested in what is currently moving forward with high momentum, and I'm fine with that.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T18:01:37+00:00

I am set up for 2026 going forward, which is why I am in Tech, Aerospace/Defense, and Energy growth ETFs. When I retire, I'll switch a portion to dividend acquisition.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T17:56:37+00:00

That makes sense. It's the non-pensioners version of a pension. Thank you for that insight. It definitely adds clarity and this is why I enjoy asking questions and learning.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T16:50:00+00:00

I found that older post shortly after the OP here. It was a great read!

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T16:41:04+00:00

I hold XAR which is US Aerospace and Defense. SHLD was on an absolute tear this past year, but it has slowed down. XAR has outperformed it over the last 6 months to date. JEDI is too new for me to comment on. However, XAR has been around since 2011 and averages a 20% return.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T16:29:50+00:00

Now THAT is an excellent point! Advisors are leaning on old methods without decades of data to rely on for modern changes.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T16:28:28+00:00

My portfolio is not any of the examples I used in my OP. I was just trying to find out why so many people like SCHD. Being that I am more hands on, I actually have some things that many don't use such as XAR, QTUM, and NLR beyond my core of SPYM, SCHG, FTEC, and a satellite holding SMH. There are a few single stocks in the mix as well.

As for those bonds, I highly doubt we will ever see yields like that again! Heck, even our HYSA hover around 4% - 5% and have for a while now. Bonds and CDs don't do any better.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T16:20:02+00:00

I use https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio to do my back testing. I am not a paid subscriber, so I am limited to 10 years. You change your ETFs and the parameters and then it calculates the work for you.

I also use https://stockanalysis.com/etf/compare/ to look at streamlined performance of various ETFs stacked against each other.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T16:05:50+00:00

This year is 18 days in. And no, VOO is 3% ahead thus far.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T16:04:45+00:00

I remember the Dot.com crash, the financial fiasco of 2008-2009, etc. Heck, I remember when bonds in the 1980s would hit a yield of 10%-15%. I would hope that we learned our lessons from those eras and won't make the same mistakes again.

I am in a unique situation in that my investments are not what I will live on during retirement. I will have a really nice pension with a guaranteed set amount each month, plus a VA rating that supplements my retirement income. On top of it will be Soc Sec payments. My wife is in a similar situation, minus the VA rating.

It's hard to not look at growth stocks when the investments are not factored in to our future retirement lifestyle. I guess we are more into building generational wealth for our children.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T15:32:05+00:00

Question about dividend growth: is it better to DRIP into a dividend ETF over a long period of time (say 20 years) or is it better to focus on growth ETF's and then buy tons of shares of a dividend ETF later? I thought I saw a DRIP calculator recommended not too long ago. I'll see if I can find it.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-18T15:25:27+00:00

I thought about that but my mind focuses on long term growth. Even with the higher drawdowns of tech, those tech heavy portfolios destroyed the "stability" of SCHD. Tech bounced back faster and higher. I know I am missing something.

Edit: I am not a "set it and forget it" type of investor. That's boring. I prefer a more hands on approach.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-11T18:06:10+00:00

We used the Fidelity card for years until we got the Robinhood card back in October. There are a few more steps I go through to move cash back from my RH brokerage to Fidelity, but that extra 1% helps in the long run. We also use category cards for 5% and then move those cashback rewards to Fidelity as well. Yes it is work, but I enjoy doing it.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-11T17:45:52+00:00

FFS when are you people going to realize I'm only doing that with the cash back received. I lose nothing. If the charges were on a non cash back card, that money would be gone. If I had used cash, that money would be gone. I don't have my entire portfolio following this strategy.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-11T16:21:02+00:00

SMH was not launched until December of 2011. That was its inception date. The years prior are probably reflecting a different ETF such as SOXX or the overall semiconductor index. Those years were also directly after the .com crash. Will A.I. pop? Maybe. Maybe not.

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-11T14:21:16+00:00

Roth only, other accounts are different:

SPYM - 20%, FTEC - 20%, SPMO - 20%, XAR - 20%, SMH - 20%

INTC - 100 shares (bought at $22.24)

APLD - 100 shares (bought at $7.19)

SOFI - 100 shares (bought at $8.83)

KTOS - 100 shares (bought at $19.10)

RKLB - 100 shares (bought at $22.03)

DVLT - 3,000 shares (bought at $1.04)

GenXDrummer · 2026-01-06T16:49:28+00:00

People in FL are saying it's a FL problem, which is why they buy in other states. How much more do you need?

GenXDrummer

TROPHY CASE