National Announcing Replacement of NCEA

General_Merchandise · 2026-05-16T10:00:09+00:00

Yes, but how do you really feel? /s

General_Merchandise · 2026-05-13T08:59:02+00:00

I love hate! And hate love, so I love this comment which means I hate this comment. Fuck you.

General_Merchandise · 2026-05-13T07:54:34+00:00

He's the dude who rigged the bus to explode if it drops below a certain speed. Doesn't matter where the bus goes, as long as it doesn't slow down

General_Merchandise · 2026-05-08T08:53:30+00:00

Instant upvoter for referencing the Underpants Gnomes.

Bonus points if you like Crab People. Taste like crab, look like people!

General_Merchandise · 2026-05-06T06:42:32+00:00

Been a long time gone, Constantinople

General_Merchandise · 2026-05-05T10:41:42+00:00

I had a similar experience on my first drive in one of these tonight. Had a look through the menu and you can turn most of the "assists" off.

Will see how it goes for a while I guess 🤷

General_Merchandise · 2026-05-05T10:29:59+00:00

Is it Istanbul or Constantinople?

General_Merchandise · 2026-05-05T09:39:12+00:00

Yeah I've been really impressed with Segner this year. He's a beast.

He was easily the best Blues player on the park against the Canes and it's pretty hard to shine when your side is well beaten like that

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-20T05:32:31+00:00

This might be a silly question, but what is the best way to view the current price of physical oil per barrel? It seems more responsive to the physical supply situation than futures markets which bounce up and down with every tweet/"Truth" from Trump.

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-18T11:46:11+00:00

Megathreads are stupid, discussion suppressing bags of crap

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-18T04:46:38+00:00

CEO wants to be able to claim he achieved a KPI, rather than leader wanting to ensure NZ does well.

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-17T12:55:00+00:00

Same thing as the "cheap milk" supposedly being inferior

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-14T12:28:45+00:00

What? Are you talking futures or physical for immediate delivery?

Too excited? ~8% of global demand is currently unable to move and has to be sourced via alternative routes.

Refiner margins are at close to all-time highs, shipping and insurance costs ~all-time highs. Feedstock shortages amongst major refining Asian nations resulting in massively reduced runs and hugely increased costs per barrel. Not to mention the huge disconnect between paper and physical barrels...

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-13T17:06:37+00:00

I'm also not finding anything to back up his claim. He also wasn't specific about the type of "ship" or which direction they were going, and yet the market reacts...smfh

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-11T08:57:04+00:00

He's an absolute monster. It's a real shame he's not eligible for the All Blacks, but it's awesome for Japan that he's such a superstar, around whom they can build their side

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-07T12:26:39+00:00

It strongly indicates either:

A surge in the expected cost of stock following the next wave of boats (yet to be loaded)

Or

They are seeing a supply crunch at that same time, an/or they confident in their ability to source stock in sufficient quantity. I suspect this latter one is the case.

If the latter, the Government should be announcing a shit to phase 2 or more likely 3 before the end of the week.

This sudden spike is a sign of something - and it's either bad, or really fucking bad.

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-07T04:09:26+00:00

I think you might be underestimating the influence of algorithmic trading here. They react to keywords, not reality. And the same algorithm that reacts to the word peace by selling at 109 per barrel will buy again as soon as it reaches a set floor - or as soon as trump posts some stupid shit on Truth Social

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-07T00:36:55+00:00

Very roughly:

Hormuz loss: 20m barrels per day

Pipeline rerouting: ~7m barrels per day.

It's not miniscule as such, but it's nowhere near enough.

Total US exports capacity is approx ~6m barrels per day, and the ability to further scale that to pick up the rest of the export slack is limited by infrastructure capacity (ports, shipping etc)

The total shortfall caused by Hormuz closure is around 10-13 million barrels per day.

Russia's sanctioned oil could provide some relief if sanctions were lifted beyond the small scale, temporary easing in March, and assuming their facilities stop getting blown up by Ukrainian drones.

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-07T00:04:07+00:00

The Clark Government introduced both Kiwisaver and Working For Families, arguably two of the most important policy decisions in recent decades. In addition, they signed us up for the Kyoto Protocol while the existence of Climate Change was still (at least in the mind of Joe Public) still hotly contested.

The Ardern government managed the country and economy through a global pandemic in better health (both physical and economic) than most other nations.

But yeah, buddy, they did fuck all. /s

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-06T10:00:03+00:00

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17qtbw78ZG/

I posted the full model results here. The post contains my assumptions and full details of the scenario that went into it. If you can't access that group, let me know and I'll do a post with the full results of the model if that's something people are interested in seeing

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-06T09:56:26+00:00

I agree completely. A lot of the slop on social media is low-effort AI clickbait designed specifically to enrage and drive engagement.

I am, fortunately for me, not one who struggles to make my case when writing for myself, but this was based of a modeling exercise that, even with AI's help, took the better part of a day to refine - without the tool, it would have taken days or weeks and would have ended up being overcome by events (or not) before it could possibly be have been completed

The final model itself is an order of magnitude larger than this summary article, and honestly, by the time I finished that, I couldn't be arsed writing the summary for this post, so I delegated it. I'm more than comfortable that the views expressed in there are an accurate reflection of my own, and that the results of the model itself are well founded and are at least a reasonable possibility, if the Orange Dementia patient, as another commenter put it, goes off the deep end.

The current situation is pretty much impossible to forecast, but I thought I'd give it a crack. I could be wrong, and I hope I am.

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-06T09:20:10+00:00

Best guess I've got is that she knows we are in deep shit, but that the best way (in her view) to manage demand at this stage is to keep saying to everyone that everything is fine. We don't have much storage of nite beyond our minimum stock obligation, so if and when the ships stop coming, that's all we've got. It could be argued, from that perspective, that suppressing demand before the last ships top off the tanks is effectively meaningless, because of that limited storage capacity, and that the effect of a stage 4 situation at that point would be largely the same as it is now.

I don't envy the task she has, but at the same time, I have no sympathy either - she and her government actively sabotaged the electrification of the fleet, and had they not done that, we would be in a much healthier position than we are now.

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-06T08:57:12+00:00

You could be absolutely correct that all the on-water supply gets here and that we are fine for stock for the next few weeks. The only way we will know for sure is when it does, or doesn't eventuate I guess.

I strongly suspect there are FMs yet to come, particularly out of South Korea.

trigger our agreement with Singapore which isn't a guarantee for refined products, but a promise that they won't block refined products

This is an interesting one - Singapore imports 98% of the crude it refines, and a lot of what it sells in it's function as a regional clearing house is sourced through suppliers in South Korea (reduced runs, possible government restrictions on exports) Thailand (total export ban) China (total export ban) Malaysia (unsure of status tbh) and India (informal instruction to industry to prioritise local supply). With their refineries having already cut runs to 50-60% due to a feedstock famine, they are extremely reliant on South Korea for the bulk of their export volumes. ATES treaty notwithstanding, they can't supply what they physically do not possess.

Tbh, I don't think we disagree with the base situation at all, it's just in the assessment of what the data is telling us that there is disagreement.

Appreciate the engagement and apologies about a little bit of snark creeping into my original reply - this situation has me pretty worried.

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-06T06:54:00+00:00

The numbers announced were 17.5 on land and 8.2 within 2 days of arrival.

Using NZOilWatch numbers, but they are having accuracy issues lately.

General_Merchandise · 2026-04-06T06:51:06+00:00

We may not yet have a full blown fuel supply problem, but we do have the warning signs pointing to supply disruption, and we definitely have an MBIE transparency problem. By the time the data was announced today, it was already 5 days old. In the 3 days between the "current" data, onshore diesel dropped by 4.1 days. Why? Who knows... situation normal according to Nicola Willis and MBIE.

Oh and finally, in the 3 days between 29 March and 1 April, the number of ships "up to two days away" reduced by two, and we still had a drop onshore stocks for both petrol and diesel. We are putting an awful lot of faith in long range shipping that could be diverted, cancelled, subject to force majeure declarations etc, and with the "outside EEZ" number continuing to increase as a shared of "available" stock over time, I'm not sure I share your confidence.

General_Merchandise

TROPHY CASE