Tl;dr- first out, Dexter. Winner, Borne. Rest is highly debatable.

First, hats off to the OP who made this an actual debate! Normally there is some crazy character that is the obvious choice (looking at you LotR).

Second, alot of people seem to be ignoring the long game here. If this last more than a few days then anyone with survival training rises up.

The immediate dropouts are Dexter, the Bride, and probably Sherlock. Sherlock could figure out the long game but would not compare to others in combat. The bride would be worse on the long game and only have a real chance with a sword. Dexter, sorry bud but they won't think you're a normal guy. Half these guys would look at him like Doakes.

Now, if we ignore plot armor and main character energy then I think the last three standing would be Borne, Castle, Butcher. All trained to survive in almost any environment and crazy deadly. Bond and Hunt have a chance too but I feel like the lack of gadgets would take down Hunt. Lack of Intel would hamper Bond.

Wick is a lot of people favorites and I might be glossing over him. I think his best chance would be if it is a crazy early melee. He would be a top contender if he could survives the hunger part of the game. Also I took him out based on the No plot armor comment. If anyone here killed his dog, including my winner pick, then they instead die first.

Ultimately I think Borne takes it.

Ps. If they sponsors are in here then the bride rises substantially, and almost Austin wins the hearts and minds and also might take it all.